Morgan Stanley cut its growth estimates for the global economy between 2011 and 2012. According to the American institute, the signs of a slowdown are now evident. In the Investment Bank report published today by Bloomberg, analysts expect GDP to grow by 3,9% for the current year, a marked decrease compared to the 4,2% of the initial estimates. For 2012 the forecasts drop instead from +4,5 to +3,8%.
The news immediately caused a sharp backlash on European lists, which all turned negative. Around 10 am Milan lost 30%. London leaves the field 1,8%, Paris 1,23% and Frankfurt 1,60%.
DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INVESTIGATES S&P FOR MORTGAGES
TOKYO DOWN (-0,42%), YEN NEARS HISTORIC RECORD
The rating agency Standard & Poor's is under investigation by the United States Department of Justice. This is what the New York Times writes, citing two witnesses already heard by Washington officials plus a third who is aware of the investigation. The rating agency, "guilty" of having lowered the rating of the USA, is accused of having artificially raised the rating of dozens of products linked to real estate loans in the years of euphoria, thus favoring the formation of the bubble from which the current financial crisis originated. In particular, the Justice Department is working on some specific cases, in which analysts were of the opinion to downgrade the rating of some products but were stopped by the top management of S&P. The investigation, specifies the New York Times, was launched before S&P's decision to remove the triple A from the USA, but "it is probable that the clamor raised by this decision added fuel to the political storm behind this investigation".
Meanwhile, Asia is starting to close the session in the negative, dominated by fears of a change of direction in Washington's monetary policy, following the aggressive outbursts of a couple of Fomc members opposed to the Bernanke line. It is easy to predict that tensions of this type will grow in the coming days, awaiting Bernanke's speech at the executive summit of central bankers in the heart of Wyoming.
Meanwhile, the prices of exporters of the Nikkei 225 (-0,42%) are depressed by the new leap of the yen to 76,41, one step away from the all-time record of 76,25 yen against the dollar. Hong Kong also fell (-0,25%), which seems to have lost the race with Singapore to host the most eagerly awaited IPO, a symbol of the Far East's new financial power: the Manchester United IPO, which aims to raise a billion pounds thanks to the sale of 25 per cent of the capital.
AT WALL STREET, THE REBOUND LOSES MOMENTUM
THE PATENT HUNT CONTINUES: KODAK +21%
First up, under the impetus of some corporate data, then "cold" by the warning coming from Dell that hit the chip manufacturers. First up, thanks to phenomena such as the "old" Eastman Kodak, which achieved a spectacular rise of 21 percent, reaching a capitalization almost five times higher than its turnover. Merit of the licenses in the body of the award-winning company born 131 years ago that could ignite the appetites of some giants chasing patents. Then down, on the wave of fears about the deterioration of the European situation, the signs of a slowdown in consumption (evoked in Abercrombie's outlook -8%) and new surprise tensions on prices that could weigh on the choices of the Federal Reserve: against the Bernanke line two members of the federal bank expressed themselves yesterday. Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed said: "Bernanke's plan to keep rates close to zero until 2013 is inappropriate both in terms of timing and methods". Meanwhile, Dallas Fed Chairman Richard Fisher said the Fed's job is not to protect equity investments. Admittedly, both bankers already voted against Bernanke at their August 9 meeting. But the opposition continues and the central banker will have to take this into account.
Even if the increase in producer prices in July (+0,2%), in other respects, is a comforting sign: it is the largest monthly increase since June 2009, which reverses the May trend (-0,4% ) with a clear recessive taste. And so, after giving the upward tone to European stock markets in the first part of the session, Wall Street, subjected to tensions of different types, closed the day in substantial parity, the result of opposing trends: the Dow Jones is up by 0,04 11.410 percent to 500, the Standard & Poor's 0,09 rose 1,193.88 percent to 0,47 while the Nasdaq closed down 500 percent. The hope of a rebound is thus reduced. Even though the S&P 13 index has lost 500% since the beginning of May and the fall in share prices has meant that the average of companies belonging to the S&P 12 is trading at 2011 times the expected earnings in 14,6, below the average of XNUMX times registered in the last five years.
GOLD SLOWS DOWN, THE PRICE OF CRUDE STARTS UP AGAIN
EMERGING MARKETS ARE SMILE AGAIN
Abrupt turnaround of gold which slips to 1,781 dollars an ounce and of silver which returns below 40 dollars. Favorable session, on the contrary, for emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 0,6%, reversing an initial decline of 0,4%. The Mexican Stock Exchange has reached its third consecutive day of gains, while the Bovespa is at a two-week high. Driven by oil, Moscow's Micex recovered by 1,9%. Emerging markets are thus trying to remedy last month's sharp declines: the MSCI Emerging Markets has lost 10% since mid-July, more than the MSCI Global. The P/E ratio has slipped to a low of 9 times, versus 14 a year ago.
BTPs RISE, MILAN LEADER OF EUROPE
THE SWISS FRANC RETURNS TO FLIGHT
For European stock markets, the initial rise on WallStreet was enough to erase the disappointment over the outcome of the summit between France and Germany. And so in the afternoon the session, up until then negative everywhere, took the upward path, at least in Milan, Paris and Madrid: the Stoxx 600 index rose by 0,2%, in Milan the Ftse Mib index rose by 1,27% at 15950 points. Only London and Frankfurt remain in deficit, which is still paying for the surprise slowdown in German GDP. The situation of the other stock exchanges in Europe nearing the closing is as follows: London -0,45%, Paris +0,7%, Frankfurt -0,7%, Madrid +0,5%, Amsterdam +0,5 %, Zurich +0,85%.
The euro, after various ups and downs, appreciated against the dollar (1,443), but depreciated against the Swiss franc (1,144). The markets were expecting the decision to peg the franc to the euro from the summit between the Swiss central bank and the government in Bern. On the contrary, the only change is the increase in the liquidity endowment fund from 120 to 200 billion which should serve to curb the revaluation of the currency.
The tensions on the currency market are not confirmed by the performance of the Bots. The ECB's anti-speculation shield is working effectively for now. And so the BTP yield, on the day of the start of the maneuvering process, fell below 5 percent to 4,89% (-8 basis points) and the yield of the Spanish Bono fell to 4,90% (- 4 basis points). Greece also placed its short bonds without much effort. The yield on the Bund dropped sharply (-11 basis points) to 2,21%.
Leading the rise in the Italian stock market are oil companies, banks and some industrial stocks. Most of the utilities are also recovering after yesterday's fall. Intesa Sanpaolo rises by 3% while Unicredit is down by 0,7%. Among the credit institutions, Banco Popolare +3,5% and Banca Popolare di Milano +2,6% stand out.
BOLLORE' ADVANCES IN MEDIOBANCA
CALTAGIRONE GROWS IN GENERALI
Vincent Bollorè announced that he has further increased his stake in Mediobanca to 5,47%. The syndicate pact gave him the authorization to increase the share up to 6%. In the face of a rising shareholder, there could be cancellations by the end of September by the foreign shareholders CBK, Santusa and Sal Oppenheim who together hold 5,2% of the capital.
Meanwhile Generali rises by 2%: communications arriving from Borsa Italiana show that Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone bought shares between 10 and 11 August, bringing his share to 2,27%.
Rally di Fonsai and rises by 6,4%, while Unipol rises by 1,7%. Eni is up by 2%, Saipem by 1%. Only Snam hints at a rebound after yesterday's collapse, the share rising by 1,3%. Terna loses 0,8%.
EVEN RATAN TATA PUSHES FIAT DOWN
PIRELLI RISES AGAIN, FINMECCANICA REJECTED
Fiat Industrial is up 4,7% and its sister company Fiat is down 0,6%. In an interview with an Indian newspaper, Ratan Tata, chairman of the Indian group Tata, expressed his willingness to review the agreements with Fiat (with which they hold a 50% joint venture) to make their mutual commitments more realistic. Ratan Tata also admitted that the joint venture is making losses because volumes have not been met. Pirelli, on the other hand, rises by 5%. The group is recovering from a slide on the Stock Exchange, Pirelli lost 21% in 30 sessions. Since the beginning of the year, the performance is negative by 3,2%. This year the group has repeatedly announced the increase in estimates after good quarterly results. At the end of July, the company closed the half-year with a consolidated net result of 158,8 million euros, more than double the profit of 77 million achieved in the first half of 2010. Management has revised upwards the profitability targets of the 2011, forecasting the Ebit margin, after the group's restructuring charges, between 9,5% and 10%. The next business plan will be made public on November 9th.
Finmeccanica fell by 3,1% to 4,964 euros per share. The stock is depressed by Citigroup's decision to cut the target price to 4 euros from 8 euros. In addition to the profit warning launched last month on Finmeccanica, there are fears of a new cut in defense spending by the Italian government committed to reducing public debt. These would be further cuts after the 200 million euro cut with the latest maneuver in July.
Faced with these questions, the market ignores the good news: Alenia and Sukhoi have signed two orders for a total of 22 Superjet 100s with a list value of 700 million dollars.
Good rise for Telecom Italia +3%. In Midex, Indesit +4% and Safilo +3,4% rose.
