Candlemas of sunshine on the markets, in an atmosphere of newfound confidence that goes from east to west, in the perspective of US fiscal stimuli and a large anti-Covid vaccination campaign in Europe. The Russian serum, Sputnik V, passes the scrutiny of the Lancet magazine (showing an effectiveness close to 92%), while the European Commission confirms the goal of vaccinating at least 70% of the adult population of the EU by the end of the summer.
Piazza Affari regains 22 thousand points and gains 1,11%, thanks to the effervescence of oil stocks, of the banks and of the Agnelli galaxy. In contrast Ferrari, -2,98%, which is flaming red and even closes as the worst blue chip of the day, after a positive morning. The U-turn was triggered after the publication of the 2020 accounts, substantially in line with the consensus. According to a trader, quoted by Reuters, the market was disappointed by the indications for 2021, on which it had higher expectations. In the rest of Europe: Frankfurt +1,6%; Paris +1,9%; Madrid +1,95%; London +0,77%.
The rally continues for the second consecutive day also on Wall Street, awaiting a series of important quarterly reports such as those of Amazon and Alphabet (Google). Yesterday the two stocks gained respectively 4,26% and 3,6% and today they appear to be making further progress. GameStop instead sinks (-60%), after the fireworks triggered by the purchases of retail investors last week. The price of silver is also deflating, which in turn has become the target of small savers. After the recent boom, which had brought the price of the precious metal to its highest level since 2013, today the March 2021 future loses almost 9% and trades at around 26,8 dollars an ounce.
The decision by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to extend margins on futures contracts from $14.000 to $16.500 to avoid volatility helped kick off the selling. Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst of the ActivTrades broker, remarked in a morning note how the trend of silver is determined by a multiplicity of markets, ranging from physical goods (interesting for jewellery, industry and also the reserves of central banks) for financial use (from ETFs to CFDs) and therefore represent a much more cumbersome "whale" than a low-float security such as GameStop. For the moment, in summary, the $30 barrier seems to hold and the fundamentals are emerging. Gold is also down: the April 2021 contract loses about 1,3% and trades around 1839 dollars an ounce.
The return of risk propensity and normal equity appetites seems to be mainly attributable to expectations on the bipartisan stimulus plan in the USA. A group of 10 Republican senators has proposed a $618 billion aid plan to President Joe Biden, significantly lower than the $1.900 billion one presented by the new administration. The Democrats in the House and in the Senate - where they are in the majority - seem to be ready, however, to force the hand of their opponents through 'reconciliation', a procedure that allows a spending law to be approved with a simple majority, without an agreement with the minority , thus avoiding the filibustering of the Republicans in the courtroom.
While waiting the dollar appears well-tuned. The euro falls but holds 1,2. “Growth differences are weighing on the euro and fueling the US currency boost seen this year,” comments Joe Manimbo of Western Union Business Solutions. "Europe could be a year behind the US in terms of full recovery."
Eurostat data show that the recession returned to the Eurozone at the end of 2020: -0,7% GDP in the fourth quarter (-0,5% in the EU-27). In Italy the drop is 2%, this is the second highest after Austria (-4,3%). Third worst is France (-1,3%). The European decline, reports Eurostat in the flash estimate, follows the strong rebound in the third quarter (+12,4% in the euro area and +11,5% in the EU-27).
According to Istat, the Italian decrease last year was 8,8% overall. less worse than expected (-9%). Meanwhile, other funds are arriving from the EU Commission of the Sure program to support layoffs, it is 4,5 billion, according to a tweet by the commissioner for the economy Paolo Gentiloni.
In the evening, the veil should also be lifted on the progress of the government crisis and on the explorations of the Speaker of the Chamber Roberto Fico, who will go up to the Quirinal to report to the President of the Republic on the possibility of putting the majority back together that supported Conte 2. As the hours go by, with no decisive news, the bond retains its aplomb: the spread between Italian and German ten-year to 113 basis points (+0,44%), even if rates go up and the Btp closes at +0,65%.
In Piazza Affari, the substantial stability of government bonds keeps the banking sector calm. Intesa is on the upswing, +2,69%. Yesterday, two sources told Reuters that the bank is continuing to clean up its balance sheet and is probing the market for an NPL portfolio, divided into various sub-segments, with a total value of 5-6 billion euros.
Queen of the list is Cnh, +5,32%, supported by the 'buy' of Equita on the expectations of the possible sale of Iveco and the recovery of the market in the agricultural sector. Stellantis did well, +3,05%, with the 'buy' of Goldman Sachs, thanks to the expectations related to synergies after the FCA-PSA merger and the launch of new products. In Exor's wake, 3,76%. The Ministry of Transport communicated that in January 2021 134 cars were registered in Italy, down 14% from the same period last year. Stellantis underperformed the market. According to what was reported by the main press agencies in January 2021, the group's registrations amounted to just over 52 thousand units, down by 21,7% compared to the aggregate data of FCA and PSA in the same month of 2020.
Oil stocks shine: Tenaris +4,14%; Saipem +3,68%; Eni +1,35%. On the other hand, oil appreciated, driven by a drop in inventories and the parallel increase in demand due to massive snowstorms in the North-East of the USA. Brent grows by 25% to 57,74 dollars a barrel: Wti +2,6%, 54,95 dollars. On the Ftse Mib Atlantia's positive phase continues +2,17%.
Sales practically only cripple the prancing horse, while Diasorin records a fractional loss of 0,52%. Weakness for utilities, which were affected by the rumors of a possible further postponement of the liberalization of the electricity market: Enel -0,26%.
Out of the main basket Tiscali loses 9,09%, after yesterday's exploit. Good for Fincantieri +3,55%.
