The start has been disastrous and the forecasts of the gurus leave little hope for 2016, but the Stock Exchanges are still trying to react to the financial tsunami. Meteo Borsa thus signals a timid attempt at recovery in Shanghai (+0,4%), after the shock on Monday, when the market closed its doors after falling by 7%. However, Shenzhen was weak (-0,5%, after -8,9% on Black Monday), while the yuan exchange rate was at its lowest since 2011. The most positive note came from the other markets. Both Tokyo and Hong Kong, after a negative start, are now in positive territory.
OIL SAVES WALL STREET
The performance of oil, in strong tension after the escalation of the crisis between Shiite Iran and Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunnis, contributes to stabilizing the price lists. This morning Brent oil is traded at 37,47 dollars (+0,7%), the American Wti at 37,02 (+0,7%). Gold also rose slightly to 10,76,50 dollars (+0,2%).
Thanks to the rebound in the energy sector (-0,2% at the end) the Dow Jones index yesterday averted a negative record: the worst opening of the year since 1932. In the middle of the session, in fact, the US stock market lost more than 2,1. 1,53%. Then, thanks to a rebound, Wall Street contained the damage: Dow Jones -1,58%, S&P -2,08%, Nasdaq -XNUMX%.
Leading the descent, particularly strong for technology and biotech, was Amazon (-5,8%), accompanied by Netflix (-7%), another darling of the markets in 2015. Tesla loses 6,9% after announcing the delivery of 17.400 cars in the quarter, at the lowest forecast.
BUSINESS SQUARE IN RED. THEY HOLD THE BTPs
No less bitter start to the year for the European Stock Exchanges. The hardest hit was Frankfurt (-4,3%). In Piazza Affari, the FtseMib index lost 3,2%. Paris lost 3% and London 2,7%. Today stock exchange forecast clears at the opening. Futures on the American S&P 500 index signal an opening at +0,4%. The same goes for the markets of the Old Continent: London is expected to recover by 57 points to 6.150, Paris by 50 points to 4.572, Frankfurt +100 points to 10.383.
Meanwhile, uncertainty has kept interest in eurozone government bonds high. Yesterday the ECB resumed its Qe purchases after the Christmas break. The 10-year BTP yields 1,55% with a spread of 98 basis points.
GURUS FORECAST A WEAK YEAR
All finished? In reality, Black Monday appears to be the tip of the iceberg of the complex and serious financial and geopolitical problems that loom over the fate of the global economy. In summary:
1) The root cause was the malaise in the Chinese economy. China's manufacturing industry recorded an unexpected decline in December with the PMI index falling to 48,2 from 48,6 in November, economists had expected growth to 48,9. This is the tenth consecutive month of contraction, an event that distances expectations of a return to growth in the world's second largest economy.
2) The economies most tied to Beijing's purchases are suffering. The Brazilian real slipped yesterday to 4.06 against the dollar. The cover of the Economist announces that 2016 will be "the year of disaster" for the country that is about to host the Olympics.
3) The scenario in the Middle East is increasingly uncertain, a factor that contributes to increasing the volatility of the lists, which has already skyrocketed. The traditional forecasts for the beginning of the year by Byron Wien, Blackstone's legendary guru, fit into this framework. It will be, according to his decalogue, a negative year for Wall Street, conditioned by the decline in the profitability of the US market.
The Fed, faced with the slowdown in the economy, will limit itself to a single rate hike. Companies will be led to reduce investments and increase cash positions to cope with the uncertainty. In short, secular stagnation is advancing. Or at least it risks becoming the dominant philosophy, to the detriment of animal spirits.
HOLDS FERRARI: "THE DIVIDEND WILL BE GENEROUS"
The general picture did not spoil the party for the arrival of Ferrari in Piazza Affari, escorted by Sergio Marchionne and John Philip Elkann, in the presence of Matteo Renzi. La Rossa closed its first day in Milan at 43,67 euros, up 0,5%. Sergio Marchionne said the company will issue a bond in the first half, and is preparing for a generous dividend policy. For 2015, registrations rose to 7.700.
FCA, SALES BOOM: "WE WILL RESPECT THE FINANCIAL TARGETS FOR 2018"
In turn, FCA closed down by 4,9% at 8,15 euros, a price that takes into account the spin-off of Ferrari. Last Friday it closed at 12,92 euros. The closing price of FCA for 2015 adjusted for the spin-off is equal to 8,49 euros. Marchionne confirmed his 2018 financial goals, despite the crisis in China.
The CEO has also excluded the sale of Magneti Marelli or Comau, on which the market has speculated in recent months, and has once again cooled down the expectations of a merger with GM. “I saw Mary Barra a month ago – he revealed -, I don't think there will be other meetings”. Meanwhile, the news has arrived from Detroit that the board of GM has unanimously nominated Barra as president as well as CEO of General Motors.
Finally, in the evening, data on car sales in Italy in December were released: 1.574.872 registrations, with a growth of 15,75% compared to 2014. Fiat Chrysler announced even more flattering numbers: +18,3% with the exploit of Jeep (+163,9% compared to 2014).
FROM BANKS TO LUXURY, ALL BLUE CHIPS IN RED
All sectors closed yesterday in negative ground. Banks are down sharply: Unicredit -3,2%, Intesa -3,3%, Mediobanca -3,5%. Popolari down: Popolare Emilia Romagna -3,8%, Banco Popolare -4,5%. Holds Bpm (-1,5%). Sales also on managed savings: Azimut -4,3%, Banca Mediolanum -4,9%, Anima -3,5%.
Black day for luxury: the worst stock is Yoox -7%, followed by Ferragamo (-4,8%), Tod's (-2,3%), Moncler (-3,2%) and Luxottica (-3,7 %).
The other blue chips are also down: Telecom Italia -3,8%. Mediaset -3,9%. In the field of utilities, Enel -3%, Snam +0,3%, Enel Green Power -3,7%. In deep red Finmeccanica (-4%), StM (-3,4%) and Atlantia (-2,6%). Among the oil companies: Eni -2,8%, Saipem -3%, Tenaris -1,4%.
