Il oil dropped to January levels, i.e. before the Russian aggression against Ukraine, should be good news, especially in terms of anti-inflation. Never markets they prefer to see the glass half empty: drop in demand it indicates the arrival of the recession, the Big names in US finance repeat in chorus, from Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and Bank of America with suspicious insistence: so far, in fact, the eeconomy has held up better than expected. The calls for caution exactly one week after the Fed meeting on December 14, however, led to a streak of four negative sessions on Wall Street. The negative cycle could break today: futures signal a start with a plus sign both on European and US stock exchanges.
Asia unchallenged, the Chinese balance worsens
Contrast the Asian squares. ThereCSI 300 index the Shanghai and Shenzen lists lost 0,6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,7%. But at the opening the lists were on the rise, prompted by the news that the authorities are aiming for one next year economic growth of about +5%, a goal to be achieved thanks to a series of measures to support the economy capable of countering the negative situation linked to Covid In November, both imports and exports fell more than expected. There China closes the month of November with a trade surplus of $69,84 billion, about 10 billion less than forecast. L' export recorded a decrease on an annual basis of 8,7%, against estimates of -3,5%, imports recorded a decrease of 10,6% against estimates of -6%. It is the effect of
lockdown.
London increases the cost of money by 35 points
Elsewhere, in Asia Pacific, it is down 0,5%. Tokyo Nikkei. Kospi of Seoul -0,4%. On parity the Mumbai Stock Exchange after the Reserve Bank of India raised the reference discount rate by 35 basis points to 6,25%. The RBI cut its 2023 growth estimates to +6,8%, from +7%.
Noteworthy is the decision of VinFast, the manufacturer of electric cars from Vietnam, to proceed, after IPO, with the listing on Wall Street.
Milan in red pending rate decisions
THEattention of the European markets is focused on the next moves of central banks, especially the ECB which will be expressed on the 15th, twenty-four hours after the Fed.
Milano -1,06% yesterday accelerated downwards in the final stages, the other squares were less heavy.
The BTP flies, less burdens for the ECB
Continue good performance of the bond markets: Italian and German government bonds at ten years they yield 3,67% and 1,78% respectively. The BTP/Bund spread drops to 185 basis points. Even more significant are the ECB data on reinvestments in the PEPP area for October and November which showed a reduction in the government bonds of southern European countries in the hands of the ECB - with Italian debt down by 794 million - and an increase context of German bonds. In the context of Qe program, the ECB's reinvestments in Italian government bonds fell by 2,967 billion in November compared to the 5,505 billion increase recorded the month before. In short, there are no signs of tension of political origin. meanwhile theIstat notes a new improvement for the Italian accounts: in 2022 growth will be 3,8% against the previous estimate of 2,9%. For next year, however, it drops to +0,4%, however without entering a recession.
Wall Street is holding back, but Biden can smile
The night brought two pieces of good news for President Joe Biden. In Georgia, Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated Republican Herschel Walker. THE Democrats now control 51 votes in the Senate to 49, a novelty of no small importance. In fact, the vote of the conservative Mankin (Democrat from Virginia often allied with the opposition) who has repeatedly held back the choices of the administration is losing weight. Meanwhile, the New York judges proceeded with the incrimination of the Trump Organization for tax fraud.
Yesterday theS&P500 index it closed down 1,4%. NASDAQ -2%. The companies in the Energy index (-2,6%), information technology (-2%) and Communications (-2,5%) fell the most. Meta Platforms -7%: the Supervisory Board has criticized the methods of treatment of VIPs and has called for a review of the content moderation system for high-profile users.
The weak dollar gives oxygen to emerging markets
Dollar little moved in recent sessions: the euro trades at 1,0450. It should be underlined the progressive recovery in relative terms of theemerging area, favored by the easing of tensions on interest rates and the dollar. From November XNUMXst to todayMSCI Emerging Markets index it beat the performance of developed exchanges by around 7,5 percentage points (+12,1% vs +4,5%).
Oil at the levels of January 3, Gas at 136
In the spotlight the Petroleum: Brent deals at $79,60, the, wtf at 75,2. For the first time since January 3, Brent is below the $80 threshold. It is difficult to establish whether the expectations of a sudden slowdown in the global economy weigh more or whether they are the first repercussions of the sanctions on Russian oil imports, but it is certain that the trend is further worsening with great benefits in terms of expected inflation . There Russia is considering the possibility of setting a minimum price for international oil sales, in response to the ceiling imposed by the G7 countries at 60 dollars that came into effect on 5 December. However, Russia has said it will not comply even if it means cutting production. European natural gas just moved at 136 euros.
Stellantis under investigation in the USA, new developments for Tim
Starts today in Turin negotiated between Stellantis and the unions on the renewal of the contract. Meanwhile, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is opening a new investigation into 1,72 million Honda vehicles, 230.000 Jeeps and 390.077 Ram trucks. A US spokesman for Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep and Ram, said the group was fully cooperating with the investigation.
Terna: Morgan Stanley cuts judgment at Equal Weight. Target price 7 euros.
Tim: Corriere delle Comunicazioni wrote yesterday evening that infrastructure funds, starting with Kkr and Macquarie, should play a key role in the telephony reorganization plan the government is working on. Vivendi he would give up the net to focus on the serve match. Cassa Depositi assumes the role of governor through a shareholders' agreement which would attribute specific governance rights. The hypothesis of aCDP takeover bid for Tim it is not feasible with a 51% ownership which would imply the de facto totalitarian assumption of the debt.
Brunello Cucinelli has again improved its guidance on revenues for 2022, forecasting growth of around +28% compared to the +25% indicated in October, already revised from the +15% expected in August.
Amplifon look for growth opportunities in the United States, where the average age is rising. The CEO talks about it in an interview with Bloomberg.
Juventus: Independent accountancy firm Deloitte & Touche said the revised financial statements filed by Juventus provide an accurate overview of the club's financial condition, but disputed the scale of the losses it has incurred over the past two seasons.
Eni: the Libyan Night (National oil corporation) has called international energy companies to rally - from Eni to BP, Total, ConocoPhillips, Omv and Repsol to which it is linked by agreements and joint ventures - with the request to revoke the force majeure that keeps the activities of exploration and give new impetus to production.
