Two pieces of news are holding back the stock exchanges at the start of the week that begins today 6 February: the consequences of the crisis weather balloon which blew up the US secretary of state's visit to Beijing, the exceptionally positive data, del US labor market which have rekindled the risk of a tough intervention by the Fed. Hence one slow start of European lists (Eurostoxx -0,6%). The data on inflation and industrial orders in Germany should be followed in the morning.
The US employment boom scares Wall Street
Wall Street futures are also weak. The drop in unemployment to its lowest level for over half a century was not taken well by the United States Stock Exchange: the boom in new jobs it dismissed the chance of a rapid fall in inflation. The Nasdaq finished down 1,6%, but finished the week up 3,5%.
Tokyo: new governor, old monetary policy
In Asia, the Tokyo stock exchange gains 0,5% while the yen weakens: the cross with the dollar rises to 131,8, +0,5%. The Nikkei newspaper wrote that the current deputy of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, is the most serious candidate to replace the outgoing Haruhiko Kuroda in April. A change of direction is therefore looming in the name of continuity in monetary policy choices and the hypothesis of a change in the approach of the bank's soft policy is no longer valid.
Le Stock Exchanges of China decrease, also due to the rise in geostrategic risk caused by the demolition of the air balloon Chinese over the skies of the United States even if the two superpowers seem to agree in wanting to reduce the episode.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down 2,5%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists -1,7%. Seoul's Kospi loses 1,4%. Mumbai's BSE Sensex also down -0,5%: the consequences of collapse of the Adani group (100 billion dollars burned in a week) make themselves felt.
State aid at the center of the US-EU confrontation
After last week's central bank decisions, the markets' attention shifts to quarterly trends and even more so to fiscal policy. Tomorrow, President Biden will concentrate a large part of the State of the Union address on the presentation of the plans for the economy (2 trillion dollars in all) in anticipation of receiving the visit of the ministers of France and Germany on a mission on behalf of Europe . But I suspect that theFranco-German axis aim to favor state aid to the detriment of the EU sovereign wealth fund.
On the markets, despite the problems, however, optimism reigns: the central banks have in any case sent out the signal that the increase in interest rates is coming to an end. The governor of the Bank of Italy he stressed on Saturday that near-term inflation expectations "are falling sharply in financial markets." The tightening on rates by the ECB, added Visco, "can now continue with the right caution". Tomorrow Jerome Powell, who will speak at the Washington economists' club, could confirm the positive expectations.
The relaunch of the three-way pact is underway: Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi
Spotlights turned on today on the conference in London of Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi which will reveal the details of the new agreement between the groups. In Tokyo, meanwhile, the Toyota assembly will approve the changing of the guard at the top.
The accounts of Bpm. The Anima collection goes up
On the corporate front, after the accounts of Unicredit and Intesa (9,55 billion profits in 2022 for the two Bigs), the bank parade: Credem starts today, the most awaited is Bpm bank. But great attention also for Mps Bankthe possible prey.
Soul Holding announced this morning a ranet funding of 34 million euros in January.
In Europe they will give the numbers Swiss credit e BNP Paribas.
In the USA, the most eagerly awaited accounts are those of Walt Disney (Wednesday), important for understanding the health of the stream. Uber data is also on the way.
The embargo on Russian diesel is underway
The embargo on Russian diesel has been in force since this morning. Thanks to complicity of IndiaHowever, Moscow seems able to circumvent the bans. The WTI oil touched on Friday the lows of the last five weeks, this morning it rose to 73,6 dollars a barrel, +0,5%.
Il Natural gas European closed the week at 57,80 euros per mWh. From the beginning of the year -24%. Again, this is a positive factor for the inflation outlook. The former Minister for Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, reiterated the credible goal of "zero purchases" of gas from Russia by 2024 thanks to umbrella agreements with other suppliers. According to the latest January data, only 6,9% of the gas imported from Italy comes from Russia. In October 2022, only 0,6% arrived.
