It had never happened in the last 50 years: after the Fed's rate hike, most of the central banks in Asia and Europe they all unleashed the war on inflation. Yesterday, the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Taiwan, the Philippines and South Africa raised rates. The economic bulletin of the ECB anticipated a new increase in the next meeting. Write the New York Times: “So much aggressiveness brings the markets into an unprecedented and risky situation: the squeeze affects an economy everywhere in slowdown, accelerating the fall into recession. And it will take months before the increases produce effects on inflation".
Eurostoxx flat. Von der Leyen's warning on the Italian vote
In this context, the European lists, under the pressure of the news arriving from Moscow, closed in the red. Even the index Ftse Eb (-1,07%) fell in the afternoon, despite the performance of Unicredit (+5,32%), which announced the upward revision of the estimates for 2023 and of managed savings.
Spotlights turned on today on the Italian price list in view of election Sunday. “If things go in a difficult direction – he said yesterday Ursula Von der Leyen – we have tools, as in the case of Poland and Hungary”.
However, the future of the EuroStoxx 50 index on parity does not offer an indication of the trend at the start of the session.
The derivative on the Nasdaq is down
The derivatives of Wall Street. The future of Nasdaq (yesterday -1,3%) is slightly down. The S&P 500 (-0,8%) recorded a third consecutive bearish session. The tech sector was down sharply, expanding its loss since the beginning of the year to 28% (against 21,2% for the index).
The index is down World Stock Exchanges (-3%), to a two-year low.
World stock markets down, fifth week in the red for Asia
Stock markets in Asia-Pacific also fell, starting to close the fifth week in negative out of six. The Bloomberg Apac index loses 0,7%, -1,8% for the week.
The Hang Seng of Hong Kong loses 0,8% (-4% per week). CSI 300 of the price lists Shanghai and Shenzhen -0,9%, -2,5% the provisional balance of the last five sessions. Kospi of Alone -1% (-4%).
Tokyo challenges the US currency, an expensive bet
The bag of Tokyo it is closed for holidays and also the Japanese bond market is not working for the same reason. The Nikkei ended the short week down -2,5%. Since the beginning of the year, the equity benchmark has dropped by 5,8%, but, due to the collapse of the currency, an investor in dollars would suffer a loss of -23,7%. As a result of the intervention in support of the yen by the monetary authorities, the only ones not to have joined the general rise in rates, yesterday the Japanese currency closed in recovery (+1,2%) against the dollar.
The dollar crushes the euro and Asian currencies
However, the march of the US currency continues on all markets. The index of dollar it pushed tonight to the highest since 2001 at 111,4. The report euro dollar is at the lowest terms, at 0,982, the lowest quotation for 20 years.
The depreciation of the asset also continues Chinese yuan. The currency depreciates against the dollar for the fifth consecutive day: this week the cross gains 1,6%. Nomura lowers his estimate for China's GDP growth to +4,3% from +5,1%. At the beginning of the week Goldman Sachs had cut to +4,5%, from +5,3%. Both notes talk about the effects of the lockdowns, both those of the first part of the year and those that could come.
Two ETFs reserved for Chinese hi-tech stocks were launched this morning in Shanghai:
Bonds are running: 3,71-year T-bond at 10%, maximum for XNUMX years
The race for bond yields continues. The 3,71-year Treasury Note is at a decade high at 3,55%, up from 11% yesterday. The biennial has hardly moved, so the spread between the two maturities has increased by 1,30 basis points. The real rate, expressed by the Treasury Inflation Protected, rises over ten years to XNUMX%, the highest in the last eleven years.
Under the direction of the purchases of the ECB, it holds the bonds of the euro area. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds for the same term, it fell by 219 basis points (-2,42%), while the yields were respectively at +4,17% (from 4,13% yesterday) and +1,98% (from 1,89%).
Declining oil. Great US/Iran maneuvers
Il WTI oil, up 0,6% yesterday, traded just above 83 dollars a barrel this morning, -0,5%. Brent at $90,58. “Americans have said they want a nuclear deal, but their behavior and actions are not all that different from previous administrations. We announced our decision, now they have to choose: the ball is in their court”. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said this when speaking with journalists on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
Stop gas in the USA and in Europe
Always very volatile scenario on natural gas. Yesterday the US one collapsed down by 9%, to 7,20 dollars, the lowest since July. The European gas it lost 1,3%, to 187,7 euros per MWh. Russia expects to reduce gas exports through its pipelines by at least 40%, to 125,1 billion cubic meters, in the period 2023-2025, while this year deliveries will stop at 142 billion. This was revealed by the draft of Gazprom's three-year plan, consulted by Bloomberg.
In Piazza Affari: Goldman raises Unicredit's target and confirms Intesa
Unicredit. In the aftermath of the rally, triggered by the declarations of CEO Andrea Orcel, Goldman Sachs confirms the Buy judgment and the target price at 17 euros. In the note, the investment bank writes that the interest margin should rise in the coming quarters, much more than what the company and the consensus forecast. Capital ratios are solid enough to support the 16 billion shareholder compensation plan between 2021 and 2024.
Intesa Sanpaolo. Goldman Sachs reiterates the Buy judgment and the target price at 2,65 euros. Also in this case, analysts speak of the positive effects on the income statement deriving from the increase in market rates: the interest margin is destined to reach 228 basis points in 2025, +58 basis points from 2021. The consensus is below the two hundred basis points.
Tod’s. The BoD deemed the consideration of 40 euros per share of the voluntary takeover bid proposed by DeVa Finance to be fair from a financial point of view.
Moncler. JP Morgan cuts the target price to 51 euros.
