Increases yes, but with caution. There ECB, anticipates Bloomberg, is leaning towards a rate hike of only 50 points despite theinflation is still running in double figures: +10,7% the estimate of consumer prices for the Eurozone, the highest for 40 years. But it grows even more risk of recession. Hence the mini-victory of the "doves" who hope for a similar attitude from the Fed. Once the fear of the missile crisis has passed, extinguished with great skill by Joe Biden, the markets are thus once again divided on the issue of inflation.
Eurostoxx futures are flat, while those on the Nasdaq are up slightly.
Target -17%: it will be a poor Christmas, but consumption is on the rise
Contrasting signals from the US markets, yesterday at a slowdown: Dow Jones -0,17% S & P 500 -0,8% Nasdaq -1,5%.
To suggest caution were the consumption data (+1,3% in the month) which helped to keep risk appetite low, because higher-than-expected growth postpones the time to stop rate hikes.
In reverse, Target froze the markets with a very negative report on the prospects for Christmas sales: consumers, it is the thesis, have only anticipated their purchases to take advantage of the sales, but profits are destined to fall. The stock lost 17%, it did little better Macy's below 9%.
Another sign of confusion comes from the world of chips: Micron -6,7% predicts a decline in sales, but the positive accounts arrived during the night Nvidia.
The Fed bankers do not help to understand the situation. On the one hand Christopher Waller, known as the hawk, explains that "this time a more modest increase, i.e. 50 points, will do". San Francisco's Mary Daly, usually dovish, points out that "the raises are far from over."
Il Treasury Notes at ten years it comes to 3,72%, from 3,80% the day before. Goldman Sachs increased its estimate of the end point of the monetary tightening by 25 basis points to 5,0%-5,25%. Strategist Jan Hatzius expects the US central bank to hike rates by 50 basis points in December.
The big names on Wall Street distance themselves from Trump
The interminable counting of the votes of the elections is about to close. The Republicans have won a narrow majority in the House, the Senate remains with the Democrats.
The election campaign starts badly Donald Trump: Blackstone's Steoheb Schwarzman and Citadel's Ken Griffith have said they won't contribute to the tycoon's expenses this time around.
Techs hold back Hong Kong, trade negative for Tokyo
In Asia, the problems of inflation are more modest. But the slowdown in the electronics industry is worrying.
Sales on Tech ballast above all theHang Seng of Hong Kong, -2,5%.
Hang Seng Tech loses -4%, also due to the news of the distribution as a special dividend of the bulk of Meituan's shares held by Tencent. The conglomerate intends to deliver about 90% of its stake in the active investee in food and other home deliveries. Collectively, the distributed shares are worth twenty billion dollars. meituan is down 6%. The CSI 300 the Shanghai and Shenzen lists lost 1,3%.
Down the Nikkei in Tokyo -0,4%. Japan's trade balance deficit widened last month to $15,5 billion, more than consensus expectations. Kospi of Seoul -1%. On equality Mumbai.
New records for Bund and Btp. The Bull stops in Milan
Inflation tensions contributed yesterday to interrupting the long streak of increases on the European Stock Exchanges. The FTSE MIB (-0,7%, 24.531, but +22% in the last month) yesterday he made his first drop in eight consecutive hikes. L'EUROSTOXX 50 it lost 0,8% (3.882).
Very positive day for government bonds on long maturities. The 1,99-year German bund at 2,10% yield from 0,7%, price up XNUMX%. construction sector ten-year to 3,92% from 4,04%, price up (+0,8%) for the seventh time in the last eight sessions. spread at 194 basis points, the lowest since July.
Today's agenda calls for monitoring the final inflation reading for October in the Eurozone, estimated at +10,7% on an annual basis.
Il Bitcoin it is unchanged at $16.540 from -2% yesterday. No news on the crypto system relaunch plan promised by Binance.
Stop the gas, a regasification plant in Germany is ready to go
Il European gas yesterday it lost 8% closing at 114 euros per mWh. We remind you that the alert level is around 130 euros. The descent has come, despite the prospects of a drop in temperatures in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Germany has completed its first floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the North Sea.
Petroleum down 1,1%, from -1% yesterday. Once the geopolitical tensions caused by the missile that fell on Polish territory have subsided, fears of stability in global demand generated by the new escalation of Covid 19 cases in China are once again prevailing.
New resignation from Tim's board of directors, promotion for Saipem
There is no peace for Telecom. The adviser Frank Cadoret, representative of Vivendi on the board, resigned the resignation from assignment. An extraordinary Board of Directors could be convened by the end of the month, approximately November 30, to co-opt the replacement director Luca de Meo, who resigned at the end of September. After raising its guidance on 2022 in the half-yearly report in August, the group is meeting its objectives and will probably improve its targets for the next two years with the new plan, said CEO Pietro Labriola.
The approvals are raining on Saipem. Berenberg raises the judgment to Buy, the target price is 1,45 euros.
Enel is ready to support the Spanish subsidiary Endesa with a credit line and guarantees for a total maximum of 5 billion euros to cope with the extremely volatile energy markets.
Banco BPM is evaluating the sale of the merchant acquiring business, the potential benefit in terms of capital ratio is around fifty basis points. In the past, the bank's top management had spoken of this hypothesis. As an alternative to the sale, there could be a partial valorisation, for example with the contribution to a joint venture.
