Gnomes, when needed, don't sleep. At two o'clock tonight the board of Swiss credit announced its intention to ask the Swiss central bank, the SBN, for access to a special credit line for 50 billion Swiss francs, an amount deemed sufficient to avert a liquidity crisis.
Eurostoxx furure up 2%
The intervention had the effect of buffering the most devastating effects of the crisis on the Asian markets, which were down but without the dramatic effects of the "black wednesday” (-3,7% Milano, -3% the Eurostoxx).
Europe's stock exchanges should rebound, the index future Euro Stoxx 50 rises by 2%, from yesterday's -3,5%.
Positive opening in sight also for Wall Street: The S&P 500 index future is up 0,4%, the benchmark Wall Street index closed down 0,7% yesterday.
Volatility on banks remains very high
These signals, although important, do not reassure that much. Public support for Credit Suisse did not restore full confidence among investors, with the US Banking Index closing -3,5% lower, despite the market already being aware of the news. Accordingly, let's get ready to live some more volatile seat.
Il European banking system, already considered more solid and better regulated than the US one, yesterday trembled as it hasn't happened since 2009 (Lehman Brothers crisis) after Bloomberg TV broadcast an interview with the president of the Saudi National Bankwho announced that he would never pay a single dollar into Crédit Suisse of which he is the main shareholder. A dramatic domino effect was thus unleashed: some banks, starting from BNP Paribas, have decided not to recognize client derivatives if the counterparty is Crédit Suisse, one of the most important systemic institutions. The bank closed yesterday down by -14% at 2,16 francs, it had come to lose -30%. During the night, the company also announced the launch of an offer on a number of its bonds, in dollars and in euros. The value of the former is 2,5 billion, that of the latter, 0,5 billion.
The repercussions on the banks of the Eurozone are heavy. Including, of course, the Italian institutions in deep red in the wake of Unicredit and Fineco, the most targeted securities.
Blackrock doesn't rule out new cracks in the usa
The intervention of the Swiss central bank, as well as that of the US authorities on the American regional institutions, has for now put out the fire. But, as noted Lawrence Fink of BlackRock, “We don't yet know if the fallout from easy money and rule changes will have a cascading effect on the US regional banking sector with further shutdowns.”
It is in this context that the ECB will have to take perhaps the most difficult decision in its history today: to confirm the decision to raise rates by 0,50% as anticipated by the president Christine Lagarde, or, as suggested by Bloomberg, limit the tightening to 0,25% or even postpone increases? Reuters, reversing yesterday's forecast, this morning gives a probable increase of only 25 points. Also in the Fed which will meet next Thursday: discarding a half point increase, the action of the doves takes off.
Btp, rates on the rise after the intervention on Credit Suisse
Still swirling movements on bonds, with the US two-year yield dropping yesterday to its lowest since September, around 3,90%. The 3,48-year bond is at 3,68% this morning, from XNUMX% yesterday morning.
Italian government bond yields, in line with those in the euro zone, rose sharply in early trading after Credit Suisse said it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to shore up its liquidity.
Shortly after 8,30, the Italian 4,17-year rate is worth 4,09% from XNUMX% yesterday at the close, the spread on the Bund on the same stretch it stood at 189 basis points from 196 at the end of the last session and the 2-year BTP rate – particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations – 3,23% from 3,11% yesterday evening at the close.
The two-year German yield is up 36 basis points to 2,737% and that of the 17-year Bund is up 2,285 points to XNUMX%.
Wages are rising in Japan
In Asia Pacific, the Nikkei Tokyo is down 1%. The yen strengthens for the second consecutive day, the cross moves to 132,8 from 133,4 yesterday.
In Japan, basic machinery orders rose 4,5% yoy in January, rebounding sharply from -6,6% the previous month, completely crowding out the consensus, which had expected -4%. The trade balance also came out tonight: February's exports rose by 6,5% a little below expectations.
The metalworkers' union confirms the positive outcome of the contract season: 50 negotiations are closed with strong salary increases. In 86% of cases, all the workers' requests were accepted.
The index Hang Seng of Hong Kong loses 1,5%, the CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists, 0,6%. Kospi of Seoul around parity, slightly down on BSE sensex of Mumbai.
Gold still rallying, oil is trying to recover
THEgold consolidated at 1.915 dollars (-0,2%). Since the beginning of the year it has earned an excellent +5/6% in dollars and euros.
Petroleum recovering to $74,40 after yesterday's 5% plunge. which pushed the quotation to its lowest since mid-December 2021. The earthquake of the banks has strengthened the belief that a global recession will be inevitable. The "restart of China" factor is back in limbo.
Il gas European fell down by -3% to 43,0 euro/mWh. The decline in gas consumption continues in Italy. In January, volumes fell by -22% compared to a year earlier, to 7,5 billion cubic meters.
