The longest Wednesday closed in the middle of the night in Athens. Parliament, surrounded by 50 demonstrators, approved with 153 votes against 128 (and 18 defections of the majority) the package of sacrifices necessary to receive aid from the EU.
Meanwhile, the markets of the planet took stock of the most negative session of 2012. Dow Jones -2,36%, S&P -2,37%, Nasdaq even -2,48%. On the other side of the Atlantic, the price lists respond as follows: Milan -2,50%, Madrid -2,26%. Followed by Paris -1,99%, Frankfurt -1,96%, London -1,58%.
The balance in Asia is also heavy: Tokyo -1,39%, Hong Kong -1,45%. Shanghai also loses hits -1,2%. In short, President Barack Obama's Golden Tuesday turned out to be a Black Tuesday for the markets.
A rejection? According to Street Insiders, there were four killers: 1) Barack Obama; 2) the alarm raised by Mario Draghi on the deterioration of the German economy; 3) the affirmation of Elizabeth Warren, the senator who fights against the excessive power of the investment banks, against which the Republicans have lavished impressive electoral resources; 4) the eclipse of Apple, down 20% from the highs of September 21st.
Judging by the stock market reaction, one should conclude that investors are saying they don't like the idea of another 4 years with Barack Obama in the White House. But it should not be forgotten that, during Obama's first term, the S&P index gained 67%, one of the most consistent rallies for the stock market under a single president.
In the absence of an agreement on the tax cliffHowever, the future looks turbulent. Fitch has already issued his warning: the American triple A is in danger. Moody's limited itself to saying that before issuing a similar judgment it wants to see if there will be an agreement on the 2012 budget.
ASIA
The income of the Chinese will double in 2020, compared to the current $4,260 per capita: today China occupies the 121st place in the world ranking of per capita income. This is the challenge launched this morning by Hu Jintao, the outgoing president, in front of the 2,268 delegates of the 18th Party Congress which will last until November 14th. By the same date, China's gross domestic product will also double, which could thus undermine American hegemony. To achieve the result, an average annual growth of more than 7 percent will be required.
But, even more difficult, it will take a change of pace, difficult to implement. "We must no longer follow the old path, too impervious Hu Jintao himself warned on Tuesday - But neither should we venture onto friable land exposed to the wind". That is, as Hu reiterated in his (unusually short, by the standards of a Chinese congress) 90-minute speech, China will not abandon the one-party road.
AMERICA
All the blue chip Dow Jones index finished lower. The largest markdowns are from the banks, the main lenders of Mitt Romney's campaign: Bank of America -6% JP Morgan -5% Morgan Stanley-6,7%, Gold man Sachs -5%. It also misses out Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC), -3,8%.
Il dollar it had dropped in the morning (up to 1,286 against the euro) and then surged in the afternoon after the revision of data on the European economy, rising to 1,276. Reflecting the movements of the dollar, the market recorded a sharp decline in thePetroleum with the WTI losing 3,9% to 85,2 dollars a barrel: tonight it had gained 3,5%. Brent is traded at 108 dollars (-2,7%).
EUROPA
For the European stock exchanges, which had started the day with a timid rise, the turnaround came before the opening of Wall Street. At the end of the morning, the downward revision of the EU Commission's estimates on the growth of the European economy in 2013 was announced: from the previous forecast of +1% GDP growth, the May estimate, they have moved on to a meager +0,1 .0,8%, which smacks of a recession. For the Commission, the decisive slowdown will be in Germany: next year, German GDP will rise by only 1,7%, from the previous estimate of +XNUMX%.
Meanwhile, the debate continues on the hypothesis of starting a buyback on the debt of the Greece to ease the debt burden. However, this solution is finding some supporters in Brussels but also many critics, especially among institutional investors. According to Pimco, it would be very difficult to convince Greek bondholders to buy back their bonds at prices currently equal to a third of their face value. To be successful, Europe would have to spend much more.
Earthquake in publishing: Pearson has put the Financial Times up for sale. Value? A billion pounds to acquire control of the markets bible. In the running are Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Rupert Murdoch himself who controls the Wall Street Journal. The newspaper on the market after the farewell of CEO Marjorie Scardino: the group will focus on educational publishing and training.
On the European Stock Exchanges, all sectors finished down, and in particular raw materials (-2,2%), oil (-2%) and banks.
ITALY
The BTP-Bund spread is flat at 342 points basis for a yield of the 10-year BTP (4,85%) which falls again below the psychological threshold of 5%. Warning levels are above 400bps and above a 5,2% yield. (-2%). In Milan it collapsed Fiat -6,6%, downgraded to sell by Deutsche Bank. stm it fell by 6,3%.
Spinning losses for banks: Popular Emilia -4,7% Unicredit -4,3% PopMilan -4,3% Understanding -3,3%. Among the blues chip Milanese, alone Rest +0,31% closed positive. Mediaset, up during the morning, closed with a loss of 3,6%.Atlantia -3,4%. Strong declines for all the main stocks of the Italian Stock Exchange: Enel-2,7% Eni -1,8% Telecom Italy -1,6%. Among the mid caps, Interpump it fell 9% after the announcement of CEO Giovanni Cavallini's resignation.
