OIL RAISES THE EXCHANGES
WAITING FOR THE NEW BERNANKE PLAN
Gold's new record of 1.894,80 dollars an ounce demonstrates that caution, if not fear, remains the keynote on the markets. But the fall of the Gaddafi regime has nonetheless unleashed a current of optimism on price lists that was felt to be in great need. In the afternoon, the bull's race, driven by oil values, gathered speed almost everywhere, and then slowed down in the last part of the session. In Milan, the Ftse/Mib index grew by 1,78% to 14.861. But all the lists of the Old Continent are on the rise: London +1,03%, Paris +1,14%. The exception is Frankfurt -0,11%, due to a slip in the final. The queen of the day is Madrid: +2,1% practically unchanged (-0,07%). In the USA, the Dow Jones index marks an increase of 18% at 0,36 pm, the Standard & Poor's 500 rises by 0,50% while the Nasdaq is marginally down -0,01%. Rumors of an imminent decision by the Fed on new extraordinary measures to revive the economy contribute to the rebound. On Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Ben Bernanke will speak to central bankers gathered there from all over the world: last year the Fed president launched the second round of "quantitative easing" there, two years earlier he made the mistake of minimize the crisis already underway, a few weeks before the default of Lehman Brothers: the markets are hoping that, from Friday, the longed-for third round will emerge. Even if the forecasts of analysts, first of all those of Socgen and Goldman Sachs, do not go in that direction. In a note published today, SocGen analysts explain that before arriving at a QE3, the Fed will deploy all conventional weapons and above all less controversial instruments. In this sense, an increase in the average duration of securities in the Fed's portfolio is considered more likely. Goldman Sachs analysts expect Bernanke to be ready to announce a change to the composition of the central bank's balance sheet rather than an expansion, a strategy that “if used aggressively it can have a significant impact”. However, investors' expectations are comforted by the extremely low level of yields on US government bonds: the 10-year Treasury Bill yields 2,1% with inflation of 3,6%. These rates can be explained by the forecast that within the week the president of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, will announce the start of a third round of purchases of government bonds (the so-called Quantitative Easing) to support the economy.
ENI (+6,4%) AND ANSALDO LEAD THE RACE
THE FRANC SLOWS DOWN, BTP/BUND SPREAD TO 280
In the meantime, the task of supporting Piazza Affari falls to ENI +6,6%, and Ansaldo +6,7%, linked to contracts for 700 million with Tripoli. the two Italian companies that have the greatest interests in Libya. But the situation is also positively affecting other companies, such as Saras +5,5%, Saipem +3,5%, Danieli +4,5% and Trevi Finanza +3,5%, one of the most active companies in the drilling sector . The oil sector is among the strongest in Europe (Stoxx +2,6%) with Total and BP rising respectively by 4,3% and 2,2%. France, Great Britain and Italy are the countries that have most supported the anti-Gaddafi revolt. In the end, on the contrary, the rise in bank and car stocks faded away. Oil is mixed: Brent drops by 0,7% to 107,8 dollars a barrel, WTI rises by 1,9% to 83,7 dollars. Trend reversal for all those assets that in recent weeks had been perceived as safe-haven assets and were therefore subject to heavy purchases: this is the case of the Swiss franc, which today loses 0,3% against the euro. The exchange rate is fixed at 1,1348. Trend reversal also for the 5-year German Bund after the strong purchases of the past few weeks: today the yield rises by 2,15 basis points to 280% and thus the spread with the BTP is reduced to 283 points, from 14,3 on Friday. Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated her clear rejection of Eurobonds: "They would undermine Germany's economic stability", she said yesterday in an interview with ZDF TV. The European Central Bank said it bought XNUMX billion euros last week in its euro zone bond-buying program announced in early August.
