Inflation remains dormant, but there is one exception: art. Yesterday night in New York, "Salvator Mundi", the painting attributed to Leonardo da Vinci, was sold for the price of 450 million dollars, to benefit the assets of Dimitri Rybobolev, the owner of Monaco Calcio. But the record figure will not affect the trend in the cost of living, only +0,1% in October in the US, which continues to defy the expectations of the Fed, which has in any case started to raise rates.
The market takes note of this, pushing down the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bill to 3,33%, while the spread between the two-year and the ten-year bonds goes down to 65 basis points. to find such a flattened yield curve in the past, one has to go to the end of 2007.
This too is a symptom of the markets' caution, held back by the drop in oil, by the new difficulties on the path of Donald Trump's tax reform and by the exit of US funds from European and Japanese equities to collect the profits of a record year.
TENcent PUSHES HONG KONG
However, this morning the Stock Exchange signals the rebound of Tokyo after six days of decline, a signal that could also anticipate the recovery of the European lists. The Nikkei index, after a negative start, started to rise: +1,3% after six consecutive declines. The yen weakens, to 113,1 against the dollar, after two days of strengthening.
Seoul (+0,5%) and Hong Kong (+0,6%) also up. This list highlights the technological giant Tencent, +2% on the day of the presentation of the quarterly data.
The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges gained 0,1%. Stock markets in India are up (BSE Sensex +0,4%). In pale red Sydney (-0,3%), despite the drop in unemployment to 5,4%, to its lowest level in five years. The decline in commodities weighs heavily.
TAX, TRUMP'S REFORM MISSES
On the other hand, the US markets were weak, held back by the new drop in oil stocks and by the slowdown in the tech sector: the Dow Jones closed with a drop of 0,59%, S&P -0,55%. NASDAQ -0,47%. New obstacles for Trump's tax reform, after returning from a long trip to Asia. Republican Senator Ron Johnson sided against it, jeopardizing the majority needed to approve the proposal.
Secco no by Mattel, the house of Barbie, to the advances of Hasbro, producer of Monopoly. The potential synergies are not understood, was the verdict of the board.
BAD TARGET, CISCO FLIES IN THE AFTER HOURS
On the eve of Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional kick-off date for in-store holiday shopping (alternative to the triumphant e-commerce), Target, one of the major chains, lost 9%, on the basis of disappointing sales forecasts. The positive note comes from Cisco (+3,4% after the Stock Exchange) thanks to the good quarterly data.
ENERGY DOWN, NEW THUD OF SAIPEM
Oil prices are still falling. Brent-type crude closed down 0,6% at 61,9 dollars a barrel: fourth consecutive session of decline. Dealing at $62 this morning. The US government agency on energy announced yesterday afternoon that the country's oil production has reached a new record (9,64 million barrels). Crude inventories also rose, contrary to consensus expectations.
On Wall Street, the Energy index suffers a loss of 4% in four days. Exxon lost 1,3%, Schlumberger -2% to a 14-month low. Another heavy session in Piazza Affari for Saipem (-1,77%). The other oil stocks are also in reverse: Eni -1,84%, Tenaris -1,55%.
MILAN, NINE DAYS REDUCED. SALTS ONLY MADRID
Negative closing but above the day's lows for the European stock exchanges, which attempted to recover right at the end, after days of heavy selling, caused by the stampede of institutional investors. The recovery of the banks was not sufficient to prevent Milan from the ninth consecutive drop in the Ftse Mib index (-0,62%). But, after breaking the dam of 22 points (minimum at 21.932) the index went back up to 22.158 points. The only positive European market is Madrid (+0,24%); minus signs for Paris (-0,27%), Frankfurt (-0,44%) and London (-0,56%).
The government defends the results achieved in terms of growth and a decrease in the deficit, after the European Commission decided to send a new letter of clarification to Rome on the 2018 maneuver and on the 2017 accounts. “This year we have witnessed a rise in the country from economic point of view”, said the premier Paolo Gentiloni. In September, however, the Italian public debt amounted to 2.283,7 billion, an increase of 4,4 billion compared to the previous month.
The Italian economy is showing signs of recovery even if, after six years of stagnation, the recovery process is expected to take a long time, Standard and Poor's said in a report on Italy released after the agency raised the Italian sovereign rating by one step, bringing it to 'BBB' from 'BBB-', with a stable outlook.
BTP ITALIA REACHES 3,76 BILLION
In closing, the BTPs yield the ground gained in the session to settle around parity, with the exception of the thirty-year bond, weakened by the markets' expectation for today's offer on the extra-long side by Spain tomorrow morning. In the wake of the rise in the Bund, the spread with Germany widened to 143 from 138. The 1,823-year trades at XNUMX%.
The public placement of the Btp Italia maturing in November 2023, with a guaranteed minimum real coupon of 0,25%, closed with orders for 3,76 billion euros. For the Btp Italia offered last May, retail requests stood at 3,19 billion euros. Today the November 2023 BTP will be offered to institutional investors.
Yesterday there were operations by Germany and Portugal on the primary. The first with the placement of 2,475 billion of the ten-year Bund in August 2027 with a rate decreasing to 0,36%. Lisbon instead took action on the very short-term front with the placement of 400 million 6-month bonds and 1,1 billion 12-month bonds.
Today it will be the turn of France and Spain. Paris will offer between 4 and 5 billion euros of nominal OAT 2020/25 in addition to 1,5-2 billion on three indexed ones. Madrid is putting between 4 and 5 billion euros of securities on the plate from 2021 to 2066.
TSIPRAS LAUNCHES THE SWAP: GREEK BONDS ARE BACK ON THE MARKET
Great news ahead for Greek bonds. Yields move to multi-year lows (2,7-year at 5%, 4-year at 4,96%, 30-year at 2018%) after the Tsipras government announced the public debt swap of around XNUMX billion euros to improve the liquidity of public finances in view of the end of the third bailout plan in August XNUMX.
Athens' goal is to place long-term bonds on the market to replace the 20 bonds issued in 2012 under the debt restructuring. If the placement is successful, Athens will obtain the necessary liquidity from the market without having to renegotiate a new aid program with international institutions and could participate in the ECB's Qe. Analysts are betting that 3,5-year yields could return to their pre-crisis values of XNUMX%.
FERRAGAMO WEARS THE DEEP RED
Salvatore Ferragamo, -4,08% (recovering from a minimum of -6%) after the results of the third quarter which led analysts to revise downwards the estimates for 2017 and 2018, was the worst player in the main list. especially the own store channel. All brokers have reduced their assessment: UBS has cut the target to 22 euros from 24 euros, MainFirst to 17 euros from 19,50 euros with an Underperform assessment. Barclays at 23 euros from 24,50 euros, Hold judgment. Mediobanca at 22 euros from 24,50 euros, Neutral rating.
The other Luxury stocks also suffer: Moncler -2%. Tod's -2%, Yoox net a Porter -0,1%.
BANKS TO THE RESCUE: BPM +2,4%, MALE CARIGE AND CREVAL
The Italian banking sector index (+0,45%) recovered the considerable losses of the morning. Banco Bpm closed up 2,4%, after the exercise price of the UnipolSai put (+1,4%) on the 50% stake held in the Bancassurance JV Popolare Vita was fixed for €535,5m. Bper (+2,11%) and Ubi Banca (+1,04%) also performed well.
Carige remains heavy, closing at -11,10%. In two days, the stock is down about 20 percent. The BoD resolved to exercise the mandate for the 560 million capital increase and determined the conditions of the increase: exchange rate and price. Creval -6,15%. The Canadian agency DBRS downgraded the bank's rating. MPS also lost 4,9% after hitting a new low.
LEONARDO RECOVERS THANKS TO EQUITA
A day of recovery for Leonardo (+4,8%), best blue chip of the day after nine consecutive declines. Since the announcement of the profit warning, it has left a third of the value on the ground. For Equita's analysts, the vertical fall in prices is an opportunity to be exploited. The broker has raised the rating to Buy from Hold.
Telecom Italia slows down in the final (+1,72%) after having touched a rise of 2,3%. The appointment of Elisabetta Ripa as CEO of Open Fiber, a company headed by Enel and Cdp, has rekindled speculation about an agreement on the network. Equita Sim confirmed the buy rating (target 1,06 euro) and Banca Imi also reiterates the buy recommendation (target 1,11 euro), focusing on possible collaborations with Open Fiber.
Enel unchanged: Bernstein's analysts have started covering the stock with an Outperform rating and a target price of 6,30 euros (upside +20%). Other utilities are down. Snam -1.5%, Terna -1,9%.
A2A -0,72% despite broker promotions: Equita strengthens its Buy rating, bringing the target price to 1,73 euros from 1,58 euros. Mediobanca promoted the recommendation to Outperform from Neutral, bringing the target price to 1,61 euro from 1,47 euro. Lastly, MainFirst raised its target to 1,80 euros from 1,68 euros. Outperform rating unchanged.
CHAIN COLLAPSES: ASTALDI, TREVI, SOLE 24 ORE
Thrilling discounts for a series of medium/small caps. Astaldi disintegrates (-24%): in a few days the capitalization has more than halved. Kepler Cheuvreux cut the stock recommendation to reduce from hold (target 2,5 euro), while Banca Akros reduced the target price to 2 from 3,4 euro (reduce) and Mediobanca Securities to 4,1 from 5,1 euro neutral rating).
De'Longhi is also bad: -13,04% at 24 euros. The parent company of the Longhi Industrial group has sold approximately 5% of the share capital through accelerated bookbuilding at a price of 25 euros per share.
New Trevi landslide (-12%, -66% since the beginning of the year). Tiscali -17%. Among the editorials, Il Sole 24 Ore dropped 26%. On the other hand, RCS recovered (+6,72%), after the slide on Tuesday, caused by the prospect of lost earnings due to the Azzurri's absence from the next World Cup.
