US inflation does not go down. Indeed, thanks to the rent race and tensions on the labor market (yesterday Amazon agreed on $5.250 in annual benefits to retain workers), the price race compared to last year stood at 8,3%. above analysts' expectations. Compared to the previous month, despite the slowdown in oil prices, the increase was 0,1%: after these data, many think that the Fed next week may increase the cost of money by 100 points basis. Stock exchanges, which had been hoping for a drop in inflation, immediately felt the pinch.
Chips collapse (-6,2%), all Dow stocks are negative
Wall Street experienced the worst session in the last 24 months: all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones (-3,94%); minus sign also for all eleven sectors of the index S&P (-4%); under fire too the Nasdaq (-5,16%), with peaks well above 6% for semiconductors.
The letter was not limited to the stock market. The risk of recession, more alive than ever, has unleashed bond sales, making 3,42-year yields jump to 3,32%, from 2007% yesterday. The two-year rate reached its highest since November 3,75 at 300%; at the start of the year, the yield was about 2018 points down. Real rates also rose: on ten-year maturities we are at the highest since the end of 0,97, at XNUMX%.
Tokyo intervenes in defense of the yen, the euro below parity
Go back up the dollar, again above parity against the euro. In Japan there is also talk of the possibility of government intervention on the exchange rate, which has reached around the critical threshold of 145 against the dollar. Two cabinet members said the situation was being monitored closely.
Eurostoxx futures are also in red, Zew is down
Will the bear's anger continue today? No, analysts predict a timid "dead cat rise", typical of deep down phases. At least in the US. Europe, which yesterday abruptly reversed course after a positive morning, could open in the red as indicated by the future of the EuroStoxx 50 index, down by 0,7%.
In Germany the Zew index on economic expectations in September it fell further to -61,9 points from -55,3 in August. Inflation stood at 7,9%.
The spread at 226, Amundi believes again in bonds
The yield of ten-year BTP is at 3,98% and that of the Bund with the same duration at +1,72%, for a spread of 226 basis points (-1,37%).
Despite the tensions, the appetite for European bonds, especially the super-guaranteed ones, is growing strongly: the EU Commission has priced a dual tranche bond (5 and 30 years) for a total of 12 billion euros under the NgEU programme, with final requests for over 114,5 billion.
Amundi, Europe's largest fund manager, has said it is keen to rejoin the government bond markets, due to the reversal of economic growth prospects. CIO Vincent Mortier said that, "as recession risks start to materialize, central banks will act to make sure long-term rates don't go too high."
Down the Nikkei, the jbond rises to 0,25%
The Paw of the Bear also hits Asia this morning. falls especially the Tokyo Nikkei: -2,5% at the end of the session. Market volatility has prompted the Central Bank of Japan in the last few hours to increase bond purchases, bringing them above the daily limits. The Japanese 0,25-year is stuck at XNUMX%, in the upper part of the range tolerated by the monetary authorities.
Down also the other squares: Hang Seng of Hong Kong: -twenty%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen price lists -1,2%. Kospi of Seoul -1,4%, St&P ASX200 of Sydney -2,5%.
Oil falls, but JP Morgan sees a price of $150
Down nearly 1% WTI oil, at 86,7 dollars a barrel. Brent 92,5 dollars. The United States, according to rumors, could begin replenishing its strategic oil reserves when oil prices fall below $80 a barrel. The Biden administration is evaluating the best timing for the purchases, taking into consideration the trend of US oil production and aiming to avoid a collapse in prices.
Yesterday Morgan Stanley and UBS revised their oil price forecasts downwards, while JP Morgan remains of the opinion that WTI will reach around $150 in the coming months.
Today the EU gas plan. Withdrawals on extra profits in sight
The price of gas at the Dutch node yesterday closed at just under 200 euros per MWh. Today the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will deliver the State of the Union address in which she will illustrate energy emergency measures. Brussels means tax extra profits forfeited by the companies that produce electricity without the use of gas, taking advantage of the fact that the current market structure envisages that the price of electricity is linked to the price of gas. The ceiling could be around 180 MWh. The money would be used by member states to settle the bills of businesses and households.
Le oil, gas & coal companies meanwhile they will be called, according to the draft, to a solidarity contribution temporary 33% on earnings 20% higher than the average of the last three years. The Commission will propose binding electricity savings targets as well as an extension of the flexibility granted on the front of state aid rules.
In Piazza Affari the echo of the roar of the new Ferrari
The crossover that Ferrari will present today in Maranello costs just 390 euros on the road: four seats, four doors (a 473-litre trunk), 12-cylinder engine. It will be the cheapest Red, but, CEO Benedetto Vigna recommends, “don't call it an SUV; it's a Ferrari and that's it."
