The financial week in Asia opens amid tensions. It doesn't weigh much, at least apparently, the fall of Kabul in the hands of the Taliban who is opening a new front in an area of the world already full of unknowns. If anything, the source of the uncertainty remains Beijing.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN BEIJING IS HOLDING BACK
The data on industrial production for July confirmed the seriousness of the economic slowdown: only +6,4% against +7,9% of forecasts. The return of the pandemic has also slowed down the recovery in consumption (+8,5% against +11,2% of estimates) while investments slow down to +10%. Faced with these data, analysts revise their GDP forecasts downwards, seen at the end of the year at +8,3%. But, on the price list front, the Chinese Stock Exchange is the one that fares better. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists is among the few in Asia Pacific up +0,3%.
VIDEO GAME "REBELS" UNDER FIRE IN HONG KONG
The Hong Kong script is different -0,8% on which government pressure is unleashed against the "rebels" of technology, fintech and private schools. But in the crosshairs there are above all the video game companies: Tencent, which obtains about a third of its revenues from this sector, reports a decline of 4%-
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is down significantly - 1,7%. Japan's GDP data released tonight signals sequential growth of 0,3%, from -0,9% in the first quarter: the consensus was +0,1%. But the dollar-yen exchange rate appreciates for the fourth consecutive day. The other Far East price lists are in red. The Asia Pacific index falls by 1%. Seoul's financial market is closed for holidays, Mumbai's BSE Sensex is on par.
DOLLAR AND OIL DOWN, GOLD STABLE
Futures on Western stock exchanges also signal a mixed start to the financial week. Among the various factors that lead to prudence after the many records of recent days, there is the bewilderment and embarrassment of the collapse of Afghanistan, which ended up in the hands of the Taliban in just ten days after the start of the US retreat. The Wall Street Journal pearl of "Saigon on steroids", evoking the chaotic retreat from Vietnam in 1975, the Washington Post marvels at the "coldness of President Biden, one who tears easily, who has abandoned a government allied to his fate". Derivatives on the S&P 500 index decreased slightly.
The 1,33-year Treasury Note rebounds to 1,179% The euro rises against the dollar to 1. WTI oil, also due to the effect of data arrived tonight from China, is down for the third day: -67,7% to 1 dollars a barrel. Gold moved little, gaining 47.525% last week. Bitcoin on the highs since May at XNUMX dollars, after a weekend of erratic movements.
FED MINUTES OUT, WALMART ACCOUNTS TODAY
Foreign policy burst onto the scene at a time of transition from extremely expansive monetary management to a more moderate regime. There are nine days to go until Jackson Hole, the traditional meeting of central bankers at the invitation of the Kansas City Fed. It could be the right occasion to announce the discounted tapering (the cutting of purchases on the bank market) even if the communication could be postponed to the mid-September meeting. In the meantime, the highlight of the monetary week will be the publication of the Fed minutes, out on Wednesday, from which central bankers' orientation could emerge. Today, on the macro front, the Empire Building index should be followed, a thermometer of the economic performance of the North-East.
According to Morgan Stanley, the interest of private investors remains high: 9,4% of Wall Street's business volume refers to traders' purchases, galvanized by the good quarterly results. The accounts of the retail giants could comfort the optimism during the week: Walmart, Macy's, Target and Lowe's numbers arrive. Analysts expect a slight slowdown in consumption after the jump in June.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ACCORDING TO TESLA
The day on Artificial Intelligence promoted by Tesla rather than the developments on the Biden administration's infrastructure pine tree could help energize the market. To follow the battle of the railways. Kansas City Southern shareholders will have to rule on the incoming offer from Canadian National Railway on Thursday.
PIAZZA AFFARI HAS DEFENDED THE HIGHESTS SINCE 2008
In Italy, the most relevant data concerns the update of the amount of public debt that falls after the first tranche of European funds linked to the Pnrr plan. Piazza Affari reopens its doors after a series of positive sessions which brought the index to its highest level since 2008 with a weekly increase of 2,5%.
The Eurostoxx 50 is also up +1,3% (against Wall Street's +0,7%). The MSCI World index rose to its highest level in history at 3.125 points, expanding its 2021 performance to +16,20%.
