Stock markets down and bonds in the red: the volatile week of European lists ends negatively, conditioned by various reasons: the changed attitude of the ECB, which no longer excludes a possible rate adjustment in 2022; the Ukrainian crisis; the quarterly results of large companies, including those arriving from the United States.
Business Square, after having been the best in a few sessions, today it is last in the standings and loses 1,79%, downsizing to 26.603 basis points. The decline in the automotive industry weighs heavily, along with Saipem's malaise and the achievements on banks. In the rest of Europe Frankfurt loses 1,73%, Paris -0,77% Madrid 1,12%, Amsterdam -0,22% London -0,15%.
Wall Street is mixed at the start. The Dow Jones is fractionally down, but the energy sector (+3%) pushes the S&P 500 and that of consumer discretionary (+3,15%), starting from Amazon (+12%), guarantees a solid upside to the Nasdaq, notwithstanding Analysis (Facebook) is still down.
Yields on T-bonds are up and the 1,9-year bond shows a rate above XNUMX%, in the light of a better-than-expected labor report which could lead the Fed to move more decisively towards tightening at the March meeting.
Eurozone government bond yields also rose, on the assumption that dove Christine Lagarde could put on hawk feathers if more persistent inflation forces her to do so.
If inflation does not let up, central banks on the other hand have to run for cover, with tapering and interventions on the cost of money and looking at oil today, there is cause for concern (or rejoicing, depending on one's point of view). In the late afternoon, Brent appreciated by 2%, moving around 93 dollars a barrel. The reason for the further leap would be the resurgence of winter in the United States which threatens to reduce supplies of the raw material.
Piazza Affari in Red with Stellantis and Poste
The auto sector suffers at European level and in Piazza Affari stellantis it does worse than its colleagues, recording a loss of 5,25%. Sales knock out too Cnh -3,48% Pirelli -3,3% Iveco -3,15% Exor -3,15%.
Archive a session of passion Post, -6,24%, affected by the rise in the spread and by the government's news on the tax credit linked to building bonuses.
Banks also slipped, after four sessions of good increases. Intesa Sanpaolo loses 2,24%, after the numbers and the business plan. On the other hand, the stock has appreciated about 20% since the beginning of the year.
Instead, oil stocks start running again, with Tenaris +2,01% in the lead followed by Eni, +1,44%, which celebrates the imminent quotation of the subsidiary Var Energy.
Saipem does not participate in the banquet, -3,24%, which brings the balance of weekly losses to 39,09%. The sales began after the surprises on Monday: the withdrawal of the outlook announced in October and the forecast of losses in 2021 exceeding a third of the capital. The escape from the title continued today, despite the "commissariat" imposed by the shareholders Eni and Cdp. In a note, the engineering company for the oil sector announced the establishment of one new general management with "broad operational and management powers" which from next Monday will be led by Alessandro Puliti, until now General Manager of Natural Resources of Eni. Paolo Calcagnini, currently deputy general manager and chief business officer of CDP, will also report directly to the new CEO, who will join the company's management team.
Saipem there is talk of a possible recapitalization of over 1 billion euros and new loans to give relief to the debt.
"However," Reuters wrote, "controlling shareholders are reluctant to put more money into the company in a highly dilutive capital raise for various reasons: without reassurance about the group's future, says a source." Meanwhile, HSBC cut its target price on the stock to 1,28 euros from 2,03 euros.
Progress is fractional by Finecobank + 0,34% Moncler + 0,21% nexi +0,08% which complete the short list of positive blue chips.
Outside the main basket, oil is still warming spirits: Saras appreciates, +7,27%, after the promotion of the Barclays broker to "Overweight".
On the other hand, the rebound fails Maire Tecnimont, -1,6% after yesterday's crash on rumors later denied of a merger project with Saipem.
The rates of government bonds in Euroland are running
Rising rates e spread 152 basis points in the area: the Italian secondary closed another session in the red, worried by the next, possible moves of the ECB. The yield on the ten-year BTP rises to +1,75%; that of the Bund grew by +0,23%. Yesterday, after the press conference in Lagarde, the yield on the German five-year bond also rose above zero for a few minutes. It hasn't happened for four years.
If in the euro area we begin to hypothesize a possible intervention on the cost of money already this year, a move excluded until recently by the ECB, for the US we are starting to bet on five rate hikes in the course of 2022 and the probabilities increase a 50 basis point adjustment at the March meeting.
This perspective is supported by today's employment report: in January, 467 jobs were gained in the US (excluding the agricultural sector) compared to December, against expectations of 150 jobs or even a decline, due to the impact of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. In addition, the December and November data have been revised upwards, for a combined addition of 709 jobs. There unemployment it rose from 3,9%, which was the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic, to 4%, against expectations for a confirmation of 3,9%.
Against this backdrop, the market is raising its bet on a 50 basis point interest rate hike in March to 34%, from 18% prior to the release of the data. Furthermore, according to the Fed Funds futures (which indicate the chances that the market attaches to a monetary policy move), there will be a 75 basis point hike by the end of June.
The job data also backs up the dollar. The greenback index rose by 0,1%. L'euro however, it made very slight progress and kept the exchange rate around 1,144.
