European stock markets close in mixed conditions and Wall Street travels mixed, in a market that can't find peace, while rates on government bonds rise in both continents and oil runs.
Business Square closed with a fractional loss, -0,53%, at 24.236 basis points, together with Paris -0,8% Frankfurt -0,76% and London -0,1%. Bucking Amsterdam, +0,26% and Madrid + 0,07%.
Markets on hot coals waiting for the ECB
Investors remain on fire waiting for the ECB, which will conclude a meeting tomorrow in which it must solve a puzzle, namely to curb inflation without scuppering growth. Beyond the end of Qe, money markets await rate news and are pricing in 75 basis points of hikes by September.
THEeuro thus consolidating its positions over 1,07 against dollar.
In the currency market, the yen hits a new 20-year low against the greenback and a seven-year low against the single currency, given the ultra-accommodative stance confirmed by the BoJ. The Tokyo Stock Exchange appreciates and closed the fourth consecutive session higher this morning.
Finally, the Turkish lira is approaching historic lows as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan calls for another cut in interest rates, despite inflation in May reaching an impressive 73,5% yoy.
OECD alarm, earthquake in Europe
The ECB's puzzle is not really easy, with research institutes from all over the world lowering their growth forecasts, but not those of inflation.
Today it is the OECD that joins the World Bank by reviewing the downgraded growth forecasts for the economy of the globe: “the world will pay a heavy price for the war in Ukraine” he says. The epicenter of this earthquake is Europe, most exposed to the consequences of war due to the import of energy materials and the flow of refugees.
In 2022, the GDP of the euro area is expected to increase by 2,6% compared to the 4,3% indicated in the December Outlook. Italy will stop at 2,5% from the previous +4,6%. But Germany will do worse, with a GDP seen increasing by 1,8% instead of +3% and France (+2,3% against +4,2%). Limiting the impacts is Spain, where the economy will grow by about 4% compared to the 5% expected before the war.
Inflation is also likely to last longer, as the war in Ukraine dashed any hope of stopping its run. Due to high food and energy prices and the continuing deterioration in supply chains, inflation will "peak later and at higher levels than previously expected," warns the OECD. The consumer price index has already reached 40-year highs in Germany, the UK and the US.
Il Petroleum but he doesn't give up and continues to climb. Brent is trading above 121 dollars a barrel in these hours, with an increase of more than 1%.
Banks divided in Piazza Affari
Piazza Affari limits losses, with the banks opposed. The blue chip queen of the price list is really a bank, Bper +2,92%, in view of the new industrial plan which will include the benefits of the recent acquisition of Carige and which could have some positive surprises in terms of improvement of the shareholder remuneration policy. The institute also benefits from Jefferies' promotion. Well too Mediobanca, +2,49%, while managed savings are in the red starting from General Bank -2,76% and Finecobank -2,37%. It also goes down among the financials nexi -2,79%.
On the other hand, the automotive engines are rekindled, with the EU wanting to stop the sales of petrol and diesel cars from 2035: Ferrari + 2,18% stellantis + 0,86%.
Prysmian earn 0,58%. Goldman Sachs increased the target price on the stock, bringing it from 40 euros to 43 euros and confirmed the purchase indication.
Male Moncler -2,6% Enel -2,37% Unipol -2,15%.
Rates run pending the EC and US inflation
Rates run up and down spread between the 200-year Italian and the XNUMX-year German bond, it consolidates at XNUMX basis points.
The Italian 3,35-year yield closes at +1,35% and that of the Bund at +XNUMX%.
The picture is not much different in the US, where rates on 5- and 10-year bonds are back above 3% again.
Moving the threads are the bets on the choices of the ECB and on the trend of inflation in the USA, which will lift the veil on consumer prices Friday and will offer new signals on the path of the Fed.
