Russia withdraws troops from border. Piazza Affari rebounds driven by Bper and Banco Bpm. The desire for value stocks with a sustainable dividend prevails. Raw materials run. Travel and tourism ready to shoot.
The bell for the stock market rise was rang early in the morning by the spokesman for the Russian defense ministry, Igor Kovaschenkov: "The units of the districts engaged in the military maneuvers of these days - he said - are embarking on trains and land vehicles for go back to barracks." Thus the fear of an armed confrontation soon vanishes in Ukraine, even if the path of diplomacy remains uphill.
Stock markets recover, tension on energy subsides, spreads down
- Business Square +1,86% recovers much of the lost ground around 26.900 points.
- The other price lists of the Old Continent are in line with increases above the percentage point: well bought Frankfurt, also supported by the rise in the Zew index, Paris rises by 1,6%.
- The ten-year Btp falls below 2%, as well as the BTP/Bund spread drops to 167.
- the future on Nasdaq anticipates a start up of 1,80%. L'S & P500 salt by 1,3%. The "safe havens" are holding back: gold at 1855 dollars -0,8%; Petroleum Wti -2,5%, dollar and 1,135.
- Also withdraw the natural gas: -6% in Europe. The impact of high energy prices on the Eurozone is recalled by the ECB's Economic Bulletin which predicts that high energy prices will reduce economic output in the Eurozone by around 0,2% this year. “A hypothetical 10% gas rationing shock to the corporate sector could reduce eurozone gross value added by around 0,7%.”
Banks in the foreground with Bper and Banco Bpm
Tension therefore remains high, but the greater propensity for risk brings interest in banks back to the forefront. At the top of the list figure Bper +6,2% which yesterday completed the mission of taking over Carige (with a dowry of 530 million), the first brick in view of a possible third banking pole.
Resume running Bpm bank +3,66% awaiting developments in the interest of Unicredit, today engaged in the board of directors on accounts. Morgan Stanley has raised its recommendation to Overweight with a target of 4,2 euros. Intermonte has made a simulation on a potential deal between Unicredit and Banco concluding that the operation would have a high industrial sense for Unicredit as it would allow it to close the competitive gap with Intesa in the richest regions.
Stock markets recovering, the great rotation on value stocks is underway
The Agnelli stable is also making a strong recovery: Exor + 3,8% stellantis +3,5%. It also shines Leonardo + 3,6%.
Once the thrills of war have been set aside, what the French giant Amundi has defined as “the large rotation towards value stocks and the attractiveness of the dividend”. It is a consequence of the turnaround in rates which, according to the managers, is destined to continue throughout 2022. "The trajectory will not be linear - the managers write - but even if there could be pauses in this trend, we do not expect a reversal of trend because the discount of value to growth remains historically high. So we see room for a multi-year rotation, to the benefit of long-term investors."
Purchases reward dividend stocks
But in which directions? Dividend shares are to be preferred, to be preferred because investors will focus on real returns. There is no shortage of material because the outgoing accounts in these months will reflect the trend of a positive 2021.
It stands out among the budgets coming out these days the Glencore performance, commodity leader announced a robust buyback. Since the beginning of 2022, the Stoxx index which groups companies in the sector has moved up by 10,50%. Alone Banks +12% and Energy +11,50% they did better. The global Stoxx index lost -4,50% in the period, held back above all by the correction of the Techs: -16%.
A sustainable risk bet is about the travel and vacation sector, the most depressed by the pandemic. A report by Expedia, the leading online travel agency, which publishes a survey on the sector every year in January, highlights the "repressed desire" of consumers for travel: 54% of respondents expect to spend on travel in 2022 an amount higher than what he spent before the pandemic. Expedia itself jumped 5% on Wall Street after announcing better-than-expected results.
