Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, but the markets bet on a blitzkrieg and regain strength. European stock exchanges recover today, almost entirely, what they lost yesterday, while Wall Street restarts in tune after even closing the session the day before on the rise.
Business Square ends the day with an increase of 3,59% to 25.773 points, driven by utilities and industry. In the rest of Europe it shines London, +3,9%; they follow Paris +3,55%; Frankfurt +3,67%; Madrid +3,53%; Amsterdam + 2,72%.
The indices of Moscow, which collapsed yesterday, are rebounding by 20% today.
The ruble also rears its head, while the dollar index rewinds the tape and is currently in fractional decline. The euro appreciates against the greenback bringing the cross to around 1,125.
Cryptocurrencies are recovering: il bitcoin advances by 10% and is approaching $40 again.
Profit-taking, on the other hand, sends thegold, which loses 0,87% and trades around 1887 dollars an ounce.
Almost all commodities are in general decline. In particular, oil futures lose. Brent April delivery drops 1% and is worth about 98 dollars a barrel; Texan crude lost 0,37%, 92,46 dollars a barrel. The price of natural gas is deflating, with the sanctions not affecting this item which is so important for Europe. Amsterdam gas TTF futures dropped 23,31% to 103 euros per MWh after Thursday's rally, in which they had passed the 134 euro threshold.
The US government bond market is not moving much, with the 2-year bond keeping the yield just under XNUMX%.
The Italian secondary closes in green. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration, it fell to 161 basis points (-1,58%), with rates respectively at +1,84% and +0,23%.
Optimistic but volatile markets
Two elements have contributed to rekindling the appetite for risk today: firstly, the fact that sanctions against Russia at the moment they are judged less heavy than expected and do not involve the Swift system, for global interbank payments, even if the option remains on the table as a last resort; secondly, the expectation that central banks will have to take the new scenario into account when setting rates. Furthermore, Moscow would be willing to send a delegation to Minsk to begin negotiations. However, it is also true that Putin invites the Ukrainian army to take power and defines the current authorities as "a band of drug addicts and neo-Nazis". So it is clear that the alert remains high and also the mood of the markets can change suddenly, as we have seen in recent days, due to the succession of news.
Looking ahead, reason from Unicredit, the flows of risk aversion seem to have calmed down but the picture remains extremely fragile. Volatility, insiders assure, will dominate during the conflict.
The other pole which is being watched with great attention is that of the central banks.
There is a widespread belief among experts that the probability of a rate hike in March by the Fed will be "only" 25 basis points and not 50, as previously estimated, even if inflation continues to run and the risk of stagflation (stagnation coupled with a run in high energy prices) looms.
The PCE data on theUS inflation, released today, grew in January by 0,6% compared to the previous month and by 6,1% compared to a year earlier, after +5,8% in December; this is the highest figure since 1982.
Instead, the voice of number one Christine Lagarde was raised by the ECB, who announced that in the next meeting on 10 and 11 March the governors will take into account the new geopolitical framework. "We will do what is necessary - guaranteed Lagarde - to ensure price stability and financial stability". Uncertainties have increased and this leads Eurotower to strictly adhere to the basic principles of "optionality and flexibility" to be ready to adapt monetary choices to the situation.
Meanwhile, before the "war", in February, the economic sentiment of the euro area rebounded beyond expectations, after the collapse at the beginning of the year. Optimism is higher in all sectors except the consumer sector.
In France, however, inflation is accelerating: +3,6% on an annual basis from 2,9% in January, according to the Insee statistical institute.
German 2021 GDP was finally revised upwards to +2,9% year on year (from 2,8%). In the fourth quarter, however, the economy slowed down by 0,3% compared to the previous quarter.
Piazza Affari in rally with the utilities
Leading the increases in Piazza Affari today is Enel, which stands out with a rise of 5,77%, but it is the entire utility sector, particularly sensitive to interest rate trends, that is well bought.
In fact, they are in the top ten of the list Italgas +5,46%; Terna +4,95%; A2a + 4,62%.
Also featured is the industry with Prysmian +5,49%; stellantis +5,3%; Moncler +4,99%, the latter after the sharply growing accounts presented yesterday. Technologists stand out with stm + 4,4%.
The banks are positive, after the heavy losses on the eve. In particular, it bounces Unicredit + 3,81%.
In decline there are only Saipem, -0,78% and Diasorin -0,19%, yesterday against the trend.
Among the mid caps, the result of the session is particularly heavy even today for Maire Tecnimont, -10,7%, due to its exposure to Russia. From the latest 2021 balance sheet, which records a 48,5% increase in profit, it emerges that 17% of the total order backlog, equal to around 1,5 billion euros, comes from Russia. The company emphasizes that it has rebalanced this portfolio between Russia and the rest of the world and that its net account balance with Moscow at the current date is substantially balanced.
