Vladimir Putin speaks of "progress" in the negotiations with Ukraine and the markets breathe a sigh of relief, even if they don't fully believe in it. Closure in Europe is confirmed in green, though Wall Street, cautious at the start, is currently trading mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0,3% and the Nasdaq down 1%.
In a climate destined to remain volatile Business Square closes far from the highs reached in the session, with an increase of 0,68% to 23.041 basis points, together with Frankfurt + 1,33% Madrid + 0,95% Paris + 0,85% London + 0,79% Amsterdam + 0,44%.
Among the raw materials, oil appears to be in progress, following the announcement of a pause in the talks in Vienna on Iranian nuclear power. Brent crude rose by around 2%, returning to 111,5 dollars a barrel; Wti +2,4%, 108,60 dollars a barrel. The gas is little moved. Gold retreats, trading at 1975,90 dollars an ounce.
On the currency market theeuro moves slightly down against the dollar, in area 1,09.
Stock markets in full volatility: Milan towed by Leonardo, Iveco and Telecom
It contributes greatly to giving sprint to the main Milanese index Leonardo, +11,53%, which celebrates the accounts of fourth quarter 2021 better than expected and the 2022 estimates, judged positively by analysts, also in the light of an increase in military spending by various states.
It is confirmed in money Telecom, +4,83%, in the last session before Sunday's board meeting which should evaluate the expression of interest by Kkr, put in place a few months ago. The fund is willing to offer €0,505 per share.
He climbs onto the podium Iveco, +5,14%, suffering in the last few sessions. In the wake Cnh +3,29%. In the industry it also shines Interpump +3,46%. Stocks in the insurance sector such as Unipol +3,17%. Banks are mixed. Well Bpm bank +2,28%, while closing in the red Unicredit -1,09% and Bper -0,56%.
At the bottom of the list Saipem -2,79% and nexi -1,08%. Ups and downs for Atlantia -0,22%, after the publication of the 2021 accounts, closed with a loss of 0,5 billion due to write-downs.
Out of the main basket it shines Brunello Cucinelli, +7,51%, with the 2021 accounts and the increase in the 2022 guidance.
Feeling oriented towards pessimism
The day is therefore positive, even if investor sentiment remains mainly oriented towards pessimism, for a war that is lasting longer than expected and which is costing a lot in economic terms, given the extensive sanctions and the inevitable retaliation between the West and Russia.
US President Joe Biden today announced that G7 members and the European Union will take the necessary steps to remove Russia from preferred trading partners, a step that allows these countries to raise import tariffs much more than previously take place with the nations recognized in the WTO and to treat Moscow like Cuba or North Korea. A blow that will weigh on the Kremlin's coffers, if we consider that the country's trade balance surplus more than doubled in January to 22,5 billion dollars from 10,1 in the same period of 2021.
Furthermore, the G7 will deny Moscow the possibility of loans from the IMF. Meanwhile, almost all the racing agencies have downgraded Russia's credit rating to junk level and the Moscow stock exchange continues to remain closed.
In Versailles the 27 EU countries meeting for an informal council instead addressed issues such as the emancipation of the area in terms of the energy e defense.
Lastly, the behavior of central banks weighs on investor sentiment which, while taking into account the greater economic uncertainty induced by the conflict, are moving towards a more restrictive policy due to strong and persistent inflation.
Stock exchanges in full volatility: spreads down, waiting for the Fed
After yesterday's flare-up, fueled in part by the ECB's decisions, judged by the market to be more severe than expected, today the spread between ten years, Italian and German will resize. The closing is at 160 basis points (-2,09%) with the Bund rate remaining at +0,27% and that of the BTP slightly down at +1,87%.
The spotlights remain on central banks and the key event next week will be the Fed meeting. Jerome Powell has already announced a rate hike of 25 basis points, against 50 on which most operators were betting before the war. Yesterday the stars and stripes inflation gave a new showdown and triggered new bets.
According to Intesa San Paolo, it will be necessary to pay attention to two aspects in the communication of the US central bank: macro and rate projections; any new information on the timing and methods of the future reduction of the budget. “In our opinion – write the economists of Intesa – the main consequences of the war on the American economy will be felt on inflation and, added to the probable worsening of supply problems, could even lead to an acceleration of the rate path. However, international financial conditions and the repercussions on US banking institutions, which could influence the Fed's plans, will need to be monitored.
In summary, "our forecasts call for a 25bps increase in March, with consecutive interventions at all meetings until July, and an expected increase in 2022, equal to 150bps and a point of arrival between 2,5 and 2,75% in 2023. Uncertainty about forecasts is enormously amplified by the war, but in our view the risks for interest rates are still on the upside, in the light of growing inflationary pressures”.
In view of this appointment, the T-Bonds remain at the window, with the XNUMX-year Treasury marking a declining yield but still around 2%.
