LISTS IN RED, CAPITAL OF APPLE. THE RATINGS OF FRANCE AND GERMANY AT RISK
Has the Bear come out of hibernation? There are signs. The Chinese malaise continues to produce its effects. Tokyo slows down -0,29%, Hong Kong -0,15% lags behind, Shanghai +0,1% almost unchanged. On Wall Street S&P falls 1,43%, Dow Jones -0,94%, Nasdaq -1,84%. In Milan, the FtseMib index lost 0,9%. The London Stock Exchange lost 1%, Paris -2,3%. Heavy Frankfurt (-2,2%) which marks the new low since 10 December 2012. Oil has returned to fall and Brent is once again below 100 dollars a barrel: 97,58 dollars (-1,8%) this morning on the Asian markets, 86,9 (-1,9%) the Wti.
In short, the recovery is much more fragile than the market rally in the first quarter left it. Also this morning the stocks of the big raw materials suffer in Asia, such as Bhp Billiton -3,3% in Sydney. Rio Red in London fell 3,8% after disappointing data on iron ore production in the first quarter (China is the top importer).
But the alarm also involves hi-tech. In Seoul, the shares of LG, which supplies the displays for the iPhone, lost 3,4% after warehouse inventories showed a sharp contraction in sales. In New York, meanwhile, Apple shares yesterday broke the $400 barrier downwards to then close at 402,80, down 5,5%.
USA “MODERATE GROWTH”, IN ITALY “FAR RECOVERY”
In short, the recovery is much more fragile than the market rally in the first quarter left it. The caution is confirmed by the Fed's Beige Book released last night: the US economy is growing at a “moderate” pace, thanks to the towing of the car and the recovery of the construction sector which offset the effect of the federal budget cuts. In the previous report, growth was assessed as "between modest and moderate". In 5 of the 12 Districts into which the United States is divided, "moderate" growth was recorded, in five "modest" and two showed "slight accelerations".
Alarmed notes instead come from the Bank of Italy. According to the quarterly bulletin of via Nazionale "unfavorable prospects" remain on the labor market, which burned 157 permanent contracts. Foreign investments on the BTP are back but the light at the end of the tunnel is still not seen. For this reason, political uncertainty must not dampen the timid signs of recovery in the bud, even if we have not seen the devastating effects on the stability of the country's debt that might have been feared.
But Jens Weidman's gloomy forecast comes from Germany; the crisis, says the president of the Bundesbank, could last another ten years. In the event of a new slowdown in the economy, he added, the ECB could cut rates.
SPREAD, HOLDS 300. BANKS IN RED IN PARIS
Great volatility on the government bond front. At the end of the session, the yield on the 10-year bond was 4,23%, the spread was unchanged at 300. But by mid-day, the Btp/Bund yield differential had dropped to 291, down by as much as 10 basis points and on levels prior to the February elections. Then the BTP canceled everything it had earned.
Rumors of a possible downgrading of the French rating weigh heavily. Sharp slide for banks in Paris: BnpParibas -4,9% Company Generate -4,3%.
Egan-Jones has downgraded Germany whose rating thus goes to A from A+. The small rating agency has become famous around the world for being the first to decree a downgrade of the United States. It was July 16, 2011. The following month, S&P did the same in the wake of the stalemate on raising public debt. And there was panic on the markets.
The euro fell sharply, losing 0,9% against the dollar and falling to 1,305 from 1,317 at the previous close. The more contained movement in comparison with the Swiss franc: the cross is at 1,2142 from 1,2155.
TELECOM-H3G, BERNABE' SIDES IN FAVOR
The tightness of the spread supported the Italian banks. Unicredit closed with a modest drop (-0,3%), Mediobanca -0,5%, positive Understanding +0,7% and MontePaschi +0,2%. Insurers closed lower: Generali -2,6% Fondiaria-Sai -2,9%.
At the Telecom Italia shareholders' meeting, Franco Bernabé takes sides in favor of the H3G operation. “The hypothesized integration – explained Bernabè – presents industrial synergies which lead to cost reductions in terms of commercial structures and development of LTE networks to which are added the benefits of two complementary customer bases”. The response of the committee called to work on the operation will arrive, at the latest, in early May. But it won't be easy to agree on the accounts.
From the preliminary analysis of the results of the group controlled by Li Ka Shing, it emerges that the gross operating margin – adjusted according to standards consistent with those according to which Telecom's financial statements are drawn up – would be around 100 million (against the 260 million announced), while the group's active customers would be around 7,3 million against Tim's 27 million.
Among industrial stocks, StM fell 5% despite good semiconductor news. Intel has released positive indications on 2013. The Dutch Asml, the world's largest provider of chip-making equipment, climbed 2,5% after forecasting a recovery in second-quarter sales.
Sharply descending Prysmian -2,4% after CEO Valerio Battista said yesterday that 2013 will be a more difficult year than the previous one. The auto sector was weak (Stoxx -2,4%) after the negative data on sales in Europe last month (-10%). bmw fell by 2,7%, Volkswagen -2,9%. Fiat it lost only 1% after better market results (-2%). Pirelli fell by 1,7%, Brembo -4,1%. Positive ending for Finmeccanica + 0,1%.
The luxury stocks moved little: Ferragamo e Luxottica they closed unchanged. In London Burberry rose 1,8% after announcing revenue growth of 10% on strong demand in China. The ordeal of the matic continues Moleskine fall of 5% to 1,753 euros. The share debuted on the Stock Exchange on 3 April after a placement at 2,3 euros (-23% in nine sessions, eight of which down).
