2019 promises to be a difficult year. Among the different signals, not least in importance is stock market performance, which for about a year have interrupted the growth phase, registering frequent episodes of correction.
The prevailing interpretation until a few quarters ago was that this was penalizing the stock markets the more it was the rise in US interest rates. The upward phase by the Fed was also prompted by expansionary fiscal policy measures.
Recently, the hypothesis that the global economy may have entered one has also added to the higher interest rates deceleration phase. A slowdown in the economy would be reflected in the expected trend of the profits of listed companies, with further negative effects on their prices.
A mix of higher interest rates and decelerating growth would be a particularly unfavorable combination, so much so that with theincreased volatility of stock markets even the hypotheses of further increases in US rates, and the start of the phase of increases in the euro area, are beginning to be questioned.
A feature of the current historical phase is the increase in uncertainty on the international political scene. This is an element which, especially after the opening of the tariff wars by the United States, risks modifying the risk premium, with further negative effects on the prices of financial assets and, ultimately, on investors' decisions.
