Asia positive, Wall Street holding, Europe still down, but not too much: futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 index signal a pale red start. It's the financial bulletin at the start of the sixth day of a war that, by the way, practically flattened Moscow's financial system. Two innovations that deserve to be underlined.
Oil remains below 100 dollars a barrel: Brent at 99,02, Wti at 96,7. An agreement for the release of part of the strategic reserves is close. The United States would have committed to lower its own by thirty million barrels. Other consuming countries adhering to the International Energy Agency should proceed in a similar way.
Bitcoin awakens: +4%, over 44 ila dollars. The reason? There is talk of a possible alternative for the Russians after the sanctions that froze Moscow's reserves. But Binance, the most important cryptocurrency exchange, has announced that it has joined Kiev's request to freeze deposits from Russian customers.
Outside Russia Shell, Equinor and the "Chinese" Volvo
Meanwhile, Russia's economic isolation is spreading. After BP, yesterday Shell and the Norwegian Equinor proceeded to terminate relations with the Russian companies. For now, only Exxon is missing, which has always been interested in the Siberian fields. Also stop at Daimler trucks and sales of Jaguar, Land Rover and Volvo, controlled by the Chinese of Geely.
Meanwhile, step by step, the recovery in Asia is gaining speed, where most of the stock markets are moving upwards; Yen weakens, Indian Rupee rebounds. Tokyo's Nikkei is on track to close up 1,5%. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists rises by 0,2%.
China's economy accelerates. The PMI manufacturing index rose to 50,2 points in February, above the threshold that separates contraction from expansion. The consensus was at 49,8. The services PMI, which includes construction and real estate, rose more than expected. The indices beat forecasts thanks to the result of medium and large companies, while the performance of small companies is the weakest since February 2020.
Hong's Hang Seng index is on par, penalized by rumors in the local press about an upcoming total health blockade that could allow all 7,4 million inhabitants of the city to be tested. The measure should take effect in the second part of March.
Seoul's Kospi gains 0,8%. BSE Sensex +0,7%. Sydney's S&P ASX 200 +0,8%.
The recovery of the Nasdaq continues (+0,41%), in the third consecutive session with a plus sign. S&P (-0,24%) and Dow Jones (-0,49%) fell slightly.
Futures ahead of today's session were slightly moved. The Defense sector is also in great evidence in the US in the wake of the increase in German military spending. Raytheon Technologies, Lockheed Martin Corp, General Dynamics Corp, Northrop Grumman and L3Harris Technologies advance between 8 and 3%.
Cybersecurity is also effervescent: the gains of Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Zscaler and CrowdStrike Holdings are above 4%.
1,85-year Treasury Notes trade at 3%, up 1.905 basis points. Gold is little moved at $1,85. 3-year Treasury Notes at 1,119%, up XNUMX basis points. Euro-dollar down slightly to XNUMX.
Panetta (ECB): stimuli must remain for now
The European Central Bank should wait before removing further stimulus measures, given the growing uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine. Fabio Panetta, member of the ECB Executive Committee, thus intervenes after the developments of the Ukrainian crisis. “The institute still needs to confirm that inflation will not fall below the 2% target – he continued – It would be imprudent to proceed further until we have solid confirmation that inflation, real and estimated, is firmly anchored at 2%. In a context of tighter financial conditions, it would be unwise to commit a priori to future monetary policy maneuvers until the impact of the current crisis is clearer", he added, concluding that "the risk of increasingly entrenched high inflation seems limited at the moment.”
In this context, the BTP accelerates in the final session, also comforted by the go-ahead from Brussels for the first payment of 21 billion euros from the "Next Generation EU" fund against the 51 projects presented by the government.
The 1,78-year rate drops to 1,82% from 0,16% at the start. The yield on the Bund also fell to 160%. The Italy-Germany spread on the same segment at 163 points from XNUMX at the start. In a week without bond auctions, the Treasury could launch an operation reserved for specialists.
Piazza Affari -1,39%. Index -7% from the beginning of the year
After a start in the deep red at -3%, Piazza Affari regained positions as the negotiations gradually took shape. Milan closes at -1,39% at 25.415 basis points, in any case one of the worst price lists in Europe, weighed down by the banking sector.
The Italian stock exchange has completed the second negative month in a row with a loss of 5,15%, the worst monthly balance since October 2020. From January 7 to today it has left XNUMX% on the ground.
Switzerland freezes Putin's funds
The other markets are also in the red. In the rest of Europe, Paris loses 1,39%; Frankfurt -0,82%; London -0,49%; Amsterdam climbs 0,26%.
Madrid -0,16%. In February, consumer prices in Spain rose by 7,5% year on year, from +6,2% in the prime month. The figure harmonized for the euro area compares with the +7% expected by the consensus.
Zurich -0,15%. The Swiss government has fully adopted the sanctions of the European Union. The Swiss country has decided to financially strike Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, with immediate effect.
Moscow bonds are junk, CDs skyrocketing
The Moscow Stock Exchange is closed indefinitely, but the effect of the sanctions has nevertheless pushed Russian finance to the brink of default.
Among the shares, the worst meltdown was recorded by Sberbank, which lost 75% after the ECB declared its division Sberbank Europe in bankruptcy or at risk of bankruptcy. Lukoil (-58%) and Rosneft Oil (-41%) also fell sharply after BP's decision to sell its minority stake. Gazprom Neft (-29%) and PhosAgro (-59%) were also bad.
The ruble lost almost 30% in value at 106 against the dollar. The rise in official rates (to 20 from 9,5%) was not enough to stop the bleeding.
Due to Western sanctions, the Central Bank cannot use foreign exchange reserves to buy rubles on the open market. The Central Bank of Russia has banned brokers active on the Moscow Stock Exchange from selling shares in the portfolios of non-Russian residents.
Emergency also for bonds. Russian dollar bonds (the largest tranche due in 2047) plunged to 33 cents after S&P downgraded its rating to junk.
Default protection contracts, CDSs to 37 per cent (+20%) shoot up.
Leonardo and Fincantieri in flight, it's time for defence
The best stock on Piazza Affari was Leonardo (+15% at 8 euros), preceded however by Fincantieri (+20,82%), both in sharp contrast with the rest of the list, but in line with the European military sector /defence. The Stoxx Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defense index moves up around +4%. The French Thales +12%, the British Bae System +14%. But the rise was triggered by Germany's decision to invest 2022% of its GDP in defense and security as early as 2, and therefore two years earlier than previously forecast. Yesterday Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in the Bundestag that Berlin will invest more than 2% of GDP every year. Leonardo recently acquired a 25% stake in the German Hensoldt.
Banks in the crosshairs: Unicredit still the worst
Banks have paid the brunt of the price since Russian banks were suspended from the Swift system. Starting with the most exposed institutions with Moscow or the Austrian Raffeisen, the French Société Générale and Unicredit (-9,47%) after a postponement due to excessive reduction. Intesa Sanpaolo is also under fire (-7,43%). According to Financial Times exposure including Italian and French banks with Moscow is around 25 billion.
Pirelli limits the damage, Stellantis' strategies today
Pirelli also fell sharply, even though it reduced its initial losses to -4,76%. The equity bond that linked the group to Rosneft weighs on Bicocca. Down on the eve of the presentation of Stellantis' long-term strategic plan (-3,83%).
Purchases on Tenaris up 3,59% and on Saipem +4,3%. Stocks linked to renewable energies such as Erg and Alerion were also lively. New tear of Gas Plus (+30%) on the expectations of an increase in national gas production.
Generali, the board of directors focuses on Sironi for the after Galateri
Yesterday evening, Generali's Board of Directors appointed by co-optation Alessia Falsarone, Andrea Sironi, current president of Borsa Italiana, and Luisa Torchia as directors of the Company. Sironi, designated as an independent director, will be proposed as a candidate for Chairman in the list for the renewal of the BoD which will be presented by the outgoing Board. Sironi is a professor and university rector and one of the leading international experts on governance and risk management.
