European stock markets cautious at the start of the session. Up until the middle of the day, Milan and Madrid were the best in Europe, but then the trend turned around brutally. The ECB has decided to leave interest rates unchanged. But above all, Trichet stressed that "uncertainties about growth are intensifying" in Europe. The ECB thus revised downwards its growth forecasts for the Eurozone in 2011 (increase in GDP between 1,4 and 1,8% at the end of the year).
The spread between the ten-year BTPs and the German bunds narrowed to 329 points, still down on yesterday's 335 points, but then started to run again, returning above 340 bps. The yield differential between ten-year Spanish 'bonos' and German government bonds is instead at 307 .
On the main list there are still positive movements for industrial stocks. Fiat goes up by 0,9%, recovering 4 euros, Prysmian +1,4%, Diasorin +1%. Eni rises by 1,84% The banks also rose moderately: Ubi and Monte Paschi rose by 1,2%, Intesa by 2,58%.
It rises by 2,5% Unicredit 2,5%. This morning the Libyan interim government announced that it has no plans to reduce its stake in Unicredit and the central bank will respect the licenses granted to foreign banks under Gaddafi. A senior Libyan official said so. Asked by journalists about the approximately 7,5% stake in Unicredit, a finance official in Libya's interim government replied: “All stakes are as they are at the moment. This is a provisional government: we will not take any big decisions”. "The agreements will be respected for all foreign partners of Libyan banks active in Libya".
A real sprint that of Bpm after the pressure from Bank of Italy for the capital increase (apparently between 900 million and 1 billion). The shares of the bank in Piazza Meda gain 3,5 percent to 1,37 euros, registering the largest leap in the Ftse Mib basket. Consob's go-ahead for the publication of the prospectus is expected shortly, while the board of directors will meet next Tuesday to examine the operation.
The intonation of asset management stocks was good: Azimut +1,9% and Mediolanum +1,4%. In August, Banca Generali reported positive net inflows of 59 million euro, for a total of 713 million euro raised since the beginning of 2011, thanks to insurance (+26 million) and administered savings (+68 million), while managed savings it recorded outflows of 35 million .
Fiat Industrial rose by 2,6% to 6,115 euros. The title benefits from Morgan Stanley's decision to raise the recommendation to overweight from equal weight. In the last month and a half, from July 25 to September 6 to be precise, the stock has fallen by 40%. To date, the loss since the beginning of the year is 31%, against a 22% drop in the Stoxx index of the European auto sector.
New confirmation of the slowdown of the Italian economy. The OECD estimates that in the third quarter the Italian GDP will record a -0,1% and in the fourth +0,1%. In the G7, in the same quarters, growth is estimated at +1,6% and +0,2%. Among the large European countries, Germany sees a GDP of +2,6% in the third quarter and -1,4% in the fourth quarter. The OECD data – released today with the Interim Assessment – measures growth on an annualized quarterly basis and the Paris organization reserves a margin of error of about one and a half percentage points. As far as Italy is concerned, the OECD also corrects its estimates for the first part of 2011: compared to +1,1% in the first quarter and +1,3% in the second (previous estimates), now the growth figure drops to +0,6% and +1,0% respectively.
The situation in Greece is "serious" and the country will not receive the new aid if it does not respect the budget conditions established by the creditor countries. This was announced by the German Finance Minister, Wolfang Schaeuble, during a speech in Parliament. “The situation in Greece is serious – he says – the mission of the troika is suspended. Until it confirms that Greece has complied with the conditions, the tranche of aid cannot be paid” The mission that next week Paul Thomsen, Matthias Mors and Claus Mazuch representatives of the troika will therefore become decisive – International Monetary Fund, Union European Commission and the European Central Bank - will carry out in Athens to resume negotiations with the Greek government on the structural reforms necessary to restore the country's economy, interrupted last Wednesday because - as the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn said - "The Greek government has not respected the program decided in common agreement with the troika itself".
Already today there are the first meetings of the technicians of the troika with the officials of the Ministry of Finance to close the 2011 budget, which presents significant deviations from the objectives. The troika calculates the 2011 budget deficit at around 8-8,1% of gross domestic product (GDP), due in a small part to the recession, much more to the inability to fight tax evasion.
