Inflation is on the rise in Europe and in the USA, manufacturing is slowing down in China and dragging oil (in sharp decline) with it, while the war in Ukraine continues and the mystery over which will be the payment currency for Russian gas continues. In this misty context, the European lists moved today, converging compactly on a declining closing, above all after Putin said that tomorrow or you pay in rubles or the Kremlin turns off the taps. Wall Street is also hesitant at the start, moving negatively but without great conviction.
Business Square saves 25 thousand points, despite losing 1,1%. The picture looks like Frankfurt -1,29% Paris -1,21% Amsterdam -1,32% Madrid -1,22% London -0,85%.
On the currency market, the euro loses positions against the dollar and trades around 1,1.
Piazza Affari, Terna and Generali tonic, Tim down
In a context of nervous and volatile markets, Piazza Affari finds some certainty in Generali, which still closes today with an increase of 3,23% (20,77 euros per share, the highest since 2008) while the showdown between the parties involved for control of the company is approaching.
"We believe that the stock could receive short-term technical support from further potential purchases on the market before the record date of April 14th", say Banca Imi analysts summarizing the appeal of Generali shares in view of the April 29th meeting and of the tug of war for the renewal of the board of directors between the list drawn up by the board, supported by Mediobanca, and that of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone supported by Leonardo Del Vecchio. The speculative appeal is also nourished by the rumors according to which Del Vecchio could rise to the threshold of 10%, from the current 8,2%, while Fondazione Crt, which was part of the shareholders' agreement with the two entrepreneurs, could round off the current 1,7% package.
On the other hand, the other protagonist title of the last session collapses, namely Telecom -7,05%, after the Financial Times threw water on the fire of the Kkr takeover bid. According to the prestigious financial newspaper, the possibility of the fund presenting an offer is in doubt: "the discussions are ongoing", writes the British newspaper - but insiders say they have stopped because the private equity group wants to execute a two due diligence before submitting a binding offer”. For his part, Tim continues to oppose the due diligence, fearing that it will result in a lowering of the offer or an about-face by KKR with negative consequences for the stock.
Returning the gaze to the upper part of the archives price list, an excellent seat Terna, +3,34%, best blue chip of the day.
The drop in oil does no harm Saipem, +2,78%. It stands out among the banks Mediobanca +0,92%, but they are in the red Bper -3,17% Bpm bank -3,13% Unicredit -2,81%. Below nexi -4,28%. Letter still up Iveco -5,56%.
Neglected Atlantia, -0,16%, even if, with the registration by the Court of Auditors of the Interministerial Decree approving the Addendum and the economic and financial plan, all the conditions precedent envisaged by the 88% transfer contract were met of Aspi to the consortium led by Cdp Equity in which Blackstone and Macquarie participate. The closing is expected within 30 working days.
Putin signs the decree: from tomorrow gas against rubles
"Existing gas supply contracts will be terminated if buyers from hostile countries fail to meet new payment terms." Word of Vladimir Putin, who sets the deadline for compliance for tomorrow, April 123,50st, and doesn't seem to be joking as he asks the Western countries involved to open ruble accounts in Russian banks. The president therefore signed today the decree with which the novelty announced in recent days was introduced. Yesterday, however, the news had spread that the timing of an adjustment would have been comfortable, but today the tone seems to have changed. Can't wait to see how the situation develops. Meanwhile, this morning the price of gas, after a declining start, started racing again on the TTF in Amsterdam, the European reference market, changing hands at 3,81 euros per Mwh, up by XNUMX%.
Oil in decline with China and US reserves
Oil futures are moving down, weighed down by worries about the performance of manufacturing in China in March and in light of the new lockdowns in Shanghai to stop the spread of the Covid epidemic. In the month ending today, the PMI manufacturing index fell to 49,5 points against 50,2 in February, crossing the fateful threshold of 50 that separates contraction and expansion.
Ongold the rumors according to which the United States are ready to draw on their crude oil reserves (up to one million barrels per day) in an attempt to cool down their prices, while OPEC has confirmed its strategy of progressive increase in production . The increase in total monthly production established by the cartel is 432 barrels per day for the month of May.
Brent is currently down 4,5% to 108,37 dollars a barrel; Wti -3,96%, 103,54 dollars a barrel.
Fly Inflation from Rome to New York
All in all, the markets are holding up well the amount of negative news of the day.
Among the macro data seen today, worse than expected, there are those on inflation, in the US and in Europe, especially in Italy and France.
In February, the PCE figure (personal consumption expenditures price index), the one preferred by the Federal Reserve, rose by 0,6% compared to January and by 6,4% compared to a year ago, after +6% in January; this is the highest figure since 1982. The "core" component of inflation, excluding volatile elements, rose by 0,4% month on month and by 5,4% year, the highest since 1983; expectations for the 'core' figure were for +5,5%.
In the euro area, the consensus sees inflation data for March, expected tomorrow, at record levels over 7%, well above the ECB target of 2%.
Meanwhile, Istat says that inflation in Italy in March it accelerated for the ninth consecutive month, recording a level not seen since July 1991, with energy still driving the flame. According to provisional data released today, the increase is 1,2% on month and 6,7% on year, against expectations of 0,9% and 6,4% respectively.
In France, too, the price run is faster than expected.
According to Insee data, consumer prices increased by 1,6% in March, with a 12-month rate of 5,1% from 4,2% in February.
This is the highest since Insee began using the EU methodology to calculate inflation in early 1997 and exceeds the average estimate of a Reuters poll of 18 economists which predicted a rate of 4,8%.
According to the vice president of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, the grip of inflation should ease in the second half of the year. “I think inflation will continue to rise over the next few months and we expect it to start declining in the second half of the year. I hope that the peak will be reached within the next three to four months”.
The spread goes up, the yields go down
The Italian secondary closed in the red, where the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration rose to 149 basis points (+0,69%), with higher declining yields for the German bond. The Italian 2,04-year interest rate closes at +0,55%, that of the German XNUMX-year interest rate at +XNUMX%.
