European stock exchanges in deep red, starting with bank stocks. Race for bunds and safe-haven assets. Live raw materials. But the deeper reaction concerns the Russian economy: the ruble crumbles -40% under pressure from sanctions, despite the central bank raising rates to 20% (from 9,5%) and ordering companies to sell 80% of revenues in foreign currency, the Moscow Stock Exchange remains closed. A few minutes from the first diplomatic face-to-face between Russia and Ukraine, Kiev has applied for immediate membership of the European Union.
Here is the financial battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, now fully supported by Brussels with measures which, calculates JP Morgan, put 20% of Russia's GDP at risk.
European Stock Exchanges: Milan heavy, Moscow remains closed
Piazza Affari left 2,50% on the ground at 11 am, recovering from the opening. Similar losses in Frankfurt, Paris is down a generous 3%. The Moscow Stock Exchange remains closed.
Lo spread Btp/Bund is at 162 points. The yield of BTP ten-year is at 1,84%, Bund at 0,19%.
The heaviest losses concern the banking sector, starting with the Bigs affected by the exclusion of their Russian counterparts from the Swift system. In Milan Unicredit, already suspended due to excessive reductions, manages to lose 12%, Intesa -6,7%.
Among the industrialists the landslide continues dthe Pirellis -7%. The Bicocca company pays for the historical relations with Rosneft, the Russian oil giant which today has to register the sensational abandonment by BP. The British company, the most important foreign investor in Russia, has in fact decided to sell its 19,75% stake in the state oil company with an estimated loss of up to 25 billion dollars and thus halving the oil reserves and gas.
Meanwhile, the energy group Equinor (280 kroner, today slightly above parity), under the majority leadership of the Norwegian state, announced today that will begin divesting joint ventures in Russiato. And the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, will in turn put Russian assets up for sale worth about 25 billion Norwegian kroner ($2,80 billion).
Returning to Piazza Affari, Buzzi -7,11% and Maire Tecnimont -7,03%, the companies most exposed to business with Moscow, also fell sharply.
They miss out too stm -2,7% and stellantis -5,3% in line with the sectors to which they belong.
European Stock Exchanges: Leonardo and Fincantieri soar in Milan
But there are also winners, starting from defense company. Takes flight Leonardo +13% driven by the German decision to raise the defense budget to 100 billion euros with the aim of bringing military spending steadily to 2% of GDP, an example that will probably be followed by the other EU countries. Leonardo is present in Germany in defense electronics through 25% of Hensoldt.
Follows closely Shipyards +15% eliminating losses since the beginning of the year.
Commodities: gas leap, oil rises
Between the oil workersTenaris advances +3,58%: Barclays has raised the rating to Overweight. Eni loses 0,94%. Snam -0,9%. The Italian government declared one early warning status for energy markets. Enel -0,5%.
On the macro front, the oil + 4% at 95,3 dollars a barrel. Brent +5%. The natural gas in Europe it recorded a leap of +20%. In worst case scenario, in the event of a complete shutdown of Russian oil supply, JP Morgan has predicted that crude oil will rise to $150 a barrel. In addition to energy, JP Morgan added, Russia-Ukraine tensions can also have a substantial impact on the prices of other commodities such as wheat and, most importantly, palladium, which is critical for semiconductor manufacturing and where supply it has already been strained for the past two years.
Gold +0,5% just above 1.900 dollars an ounce.
