Final in timid recovery for European price lists, after the start of Wall Street, toned in the American morning.
The mood of investors remains variable and influenced by the war in Ukraine, from today's long list of macro data (starting with those on inflation, on the eve of the ECB meeting), while dealing with the first important US quarterly. On the Asian front, we look at the lockdown in China and the first drop in imports recorded by Beijing since 2020.
In this context Piazza Affari holds its course and appreciated by 0,22% to 24.722 basis points. The spread also improves, but yields at auction rise a lot.
In rest of Europe Madrid +0,47% and Amsterdam +0,24% are positive. Down Frankfurt -0,3%, flat London and Paris.
Sul currency market the euro trades in progress against the dollar, but does not stray much from an exchange rate around 1,08.
Among raw material Oil continued to gain, with Brent up 2,4% to $107,16 a barrel.
Piazza Affari in equilibrium
Finally, Piazza Affari has found a balance between purchases and sales. To weigh positively on the scales are Iveco +5,97%, which continues to recover after heavy losses since the listing.
Dusting Bpm bank, +3,35%, awaiting news after Crédit Agricole's blitz on capital. In recovery is the sbanking sector as a whole. Mediobanca +2,35% and Unicredit +1,45% in particular did well.
In cash Telecommunications, +3%, with consumer area services attractive to Iliad and Apax.
Leonardo +1,76%, Cnh +2,43%, Eni +2,22% remain on the shields. It goes up by half a percentage point Stellantis. Shareholders voted against the remuneration policy which provides for CEO Carlos Tavares a total of 19,15 million euros in 2021. Chairman John Elkann explained that it is a consultation vote and not binding, but the company will hold account of the indications I'm coming!ivated by the members.
Well bought Atlantia, +0,78%, waiting for thetakeover bid by the Benettons to defend the holding from external attacks.
Letter on Nexi -3,15%. Defensive stocks drop such as Campari -3,15%, Terna -2,33%, Hera -1,73%.
Spreads down; auction yields rise
The closure is in green on the secondary, where the spread between ten-year Italian and German it falls to 158 basis points (-2,45%) and rates slightly down to +2,35% and +0,777% respectively.
However, auction rates are flying. The Treasury placed all the 8 billion euro BTPs offered this morning, but the yield on the 3-year BTP (first tranche maturing in August 2025 for 3,750 billion) rose to 1,32% from 0,57% in the March placement ; that of the 7-year BTP (ninth tranche February 2029 for 1,5 billion) to 2,04% from 1,47%. The rate of the 10-year BTP (15th tranche of August 2029 for 1 billion) at 2,04%; that of the 20-year BTP (12th tranche in March 2040 for 750 million) rose to 2,69% from 2,30% and that of the 30-year BTP (second tranche in September 2052 for 1 billion) rose to 2,89 % from 1,82%.
Focus on inflation
Rates go up pending the ECB, even if S&P Global Rating believes that tomorrow there will be no surprises, while news will arrive in the June meeting together with the answers that Frankfurt is looking for on the duration of inflation and on the impact of the war on growth.
On the other hand, a lashing inflation combined with declining growth are the elements that attract investors' attention in this period.
In Europe came out today i data on UK and Spain, where inflation rose by 7% and 9,8% respectively. Data from Spain also leapfrogged numbers from the Eurozone, where the annual inflation rate rose by 7,5% in March, up further from 5,9% in February.
In the USA in March, producer prices rose by 1,4% over February, against expectations for a 1,1% rise. Yesterday the data on consumer prices with stars and stripes came out, at a 41-year high, but core inflation was lower than expected and gave hope that the price race has reached its peak.
Germany: with gas stop comes the recession
A sudden stop on Russian gas imports would bring Germany into one “severe recession” next year. This is confirmed by the main German economic institutes. Turning off the taps in “mid-April” this year would limit growth to 1,9% in 2022 and push Germany into a recession in 2023, causing the economy to contract by 2,2%.
For Italy, Prometeia, in its monthly note, observes that the economic consequences of the war will push local industrial production sharply down in March, leading to a 1,8% cyclical contraction in the first quarter.
This would be the first reduction after six consecutive quarters without declines. The research institute forecasts a 2,6% month-on-month drop in production for March, after the rebound recorded in February, mainly due to a deterioration in business confidence. A flat April would then follow and a modest recovery (+0,6%) in May. “In a condition of already sharply rising prices, the ongoing conflict is fueling the risk that inflation will remain high for a long time, with a consequent prospect of a slowdown in economic activity”.
Wall Street in the spotlight with the quarterly reports
The US indices, reduced between three negative sessions (the closing on the eve was down, despite the sparkling opening) are currently moving in fractional progress. Among the titles highlighted are those that have presented quarterly accounts. The worst of the S&P500 is JP Morgan Chase, which loses almost 3% after a 42% drop in net income and despite revenues better than estimates. Chief executive Jamie Dimon is "optimistic about the economy, at least for the short term", but foresees "significant geopolitical and economic risks due to high inflation, supply chain problems, war in Ukraine".
Sale Delta Air Lines, given the lower than expected quarterly loss and estimating a profit for the current quarter, thanks to the increase in bookings and rates. The energy sector is the best.
