The euro falls, but not too much: 1,3615 against the dollar. It is the only reaction to the European vote of the Asian stock exchanges, committed to celebrating the historic record of the Asian Pacific indices which follows the new highs reached on Friday in New York by the S&P500 index, for the first time over 1900 at the close. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index rose by.2%, regardless of the Eurosceptic advance in Paris and London but comforted by the outcome of the vote in Ukraine.
With the London and New York stock markets closed this morning, the Eurozone markets face the post-vote test on their own, without the pressure of international speculation. To ring the start-up bell is an exceptional witness: Mario Draghi. The president of the ECB has scheduled his speech at the Forum promoted by the ECB for this morning, 9 in Lisbon (8 in Italy). The title? “Monetary policy in a changing scenario”. In other words, once the electoral match is closed, the word passes to the central bank, which has brought together in Portugal the technicians who in recent months have worked on the "innovative tools" that Draghi has promised in an anti-recession function.
The markets are betting on a robust shock package: rate cut from 0,25 to 0,15%, accompanied by negative interest on deposits with Frankfurt; launch of a new Ltro but, this time, based on the English model of Funding for Lending, to encourage the flow of liquidity to businesses. Finally, within a few months, the real QE, also based on the purchase of ABS and other private securities on the market.
Under the pressure of so much news, a session marked by uncertainty, at least at the beginning, is announced Operators must decode the "hottest" messages arriving from the various countries: the French vote, in particular, promises significant consequences both for Parisian politics than for the European one. The Pd Matteo Renzi, triumphant in Italy, is also the first "shareholder" of the European Socialist Party which he joined only a few months ago. And so on.
BTP TOWARDS COLLECTION WAITING FOR THE AUCTIONS
In an Italian key, the most immediate effect of the success of Matteo Renzi it will be the return of confidence of the big investors who feared the renewal effect of the new government already exhausted, feared after the declines of banks and, above all, Btp. It is this land, therefore, that the most marked post-vote signals could arrive. In fact, even more than the stock market, the performance of government bonds will be in the spotlight, after a turbulent week in which the spread jumped over 200 and then closed at 174 bp. The 3,14-year yield closed at 3,24%, from a high of 17%, XNUMX points above the corresponding Spanish Bonos.
Already tomorrow the Treasury could reap the benefits of the wave of renewed confidence in the Italian executive. In fact, the calendar foresees issues for the week of 18,5 billion. Between Tuesday and Thursday, BOTs, 5 and 10-year BTPs, CTZs and BTPEIs will be offered. A placement made easier by repayments: in two days the Treasury will repay bonds for 41 billion. Furthermore, in the second half of the year approximately 137,6 billion will be returned to the market against issues that should not exceed 120 billion.
The attitude of the rating agencies contributes to favoring a less problematic trend on the European market: during the week Fitch promoted Greece to B from B-. S&P upgraded Spain to BBB from BBB-. S&P's verdict on Italy is expected on 6 June after the rating agency opened the possibility of a promotion in a report last January.
BANKS, US INVESTORS MORE CERTAIN
The recovery of BTPs and, consequently, of the interest of international investors for banks promises to be the other key element of the next sessions. Interest in the system had already resumed on Friday. Most of all, Monte Paschi had shined +5,9% on which HSBC intervened, which promoted the title to Neutral from Underweight, confirming the target price of 22 euros
B.Pop. Emilia rose by 4,7%, B. Popolare +4,4%. Entente and Unicredit +2%. Banca Popolare di Milano +3,6% closed the increase from 500 million just before sold out (99,48% of subscriptions compared to the 81,7% recorded in the previous increase in 2011). The forecasts formulated by the managing director Giuseppe Castagna, who had aired a response higher than expected and an unopted option reduced to a flicker, thus found confirmation.
In the meantime, the capital increase of Creval begins today. The bank will offer a maximum of 624.963.248 ordinary shares in the ratio of 13 new securities for every 10 shares held, at a unit price of 0,64 euro. The operation will end on 20 June, while the rights relating to the capital increase will be listed until 13 June.
UnipolSai (+3,5%) fully recovered the 3,7% loss over the weekend after the news of the indictment of CEO Carlo Cimbri for market manipulation. The tension on the title is eased. In a note released yesterday with the stock exchange closed, the company underlined that the merger has obtained all the required authorizations and approvals and it hopes "short times" for the conclusion of the investigations.
PIRELLI, ROSTNEFT ENTERS THE BICOCCA
The conclusion of the agreement for Rosneft to acquire 50% of Camfin for 552,7 million will also be examined by Piazza Affari. Clessidra exits, the other 50% remains with Tronchetti, Intesa and Unicredit united in a shareholders' agreement before the formation of a Newco. The closing will take place by 30 June after which Pirelli will increasingly be a public company but with a new strong partner alongside Marco Tronchetti Provera. Over the weekend Rosneft signed another "historic" agreement: the creation of a joint venture for the development of shale gas with the British BP,
TELECOM, TELCO TIME X IS APPROACHING
The reorganization of the Telecom Italia shareholder base is approaching with a slight increase of +0,2% after a series of seven negative sessions. In fact, in June the possibility opens up for Telco shareholders to exit the pact that binds them within the financial company which, with 22,3% of the capital, is the main shareholder of Telecom Italia.
The president of Generali, Gabriele Galateri, confirmed today that the insurance group will use the June window to exit the shareholders' agreement. The same will most likely be done by the other two financial shareholders, Mediobanca (7,3% of Telco) and Intesa (7,3% of Telco). Telefonica, which owns 66% of Telco, should not exercise the option to acquire the entire stake of the other Telco shareholders. If Telco is liquidated, Telefonica will become the first shareholder of Telecom Italia with 14,4%, followed by Findim (Fossati family) with 5%. The shares of Intesa and Mediobanca will be 1,6%. Since the beginning of the year, the stock boasts an increase of 13%, against an unchanged performance of the Stoxx European index of the telecommunications sector.
DIVIDENDS, THE MINI WAVE IS HERE
Once the electoral unknown factor has been overcome, the stock markets can still take advantage of the favorable trend in the price lists. Wall Street, before the long weekend, allowed itself a new historic record: the S&P 500 index closed at 1900,53, its all-time high. The European indices also rose: the Eurostoxx 600 rose by 0,8%, to its highest level since January 2008. 16 out of 18 national indices closed in positive territory: Frankfurt rose by 1,4%, Paris by 0,8, XNUMX%.
Piazza Affari also closed the week with a gain of 0,5% which, in substance, is much more robust because last Monday the FtseMib index was penalized by 1,5% due to the detachment of the dividend of about fifty stocks . Also this morning there will be a coupon effect, however much more modest. The following dividends are assigned: Acsm-Agam (0,045 euro); Propeller (0,0269 euros); Gas Plus (0,16 euro; Ima (1,25 euro)- Irce (0,01 euro)- Marr (0,58 euro)- Nice (0,043 euro)- Sabaf (0,4 euro)- Salini Impregilo (0,26 .0,083 euros; savings) - TamburiIP (0,016 euros) - Tesmec (0,4369 euros) - Frendy Energy (one share held for every three) - Green Power Group (XNUMX).
