A breakthrough? Or just a lull before another offensive? After the talks in Istanbul, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he saw no signs of "real seriousness" from Russia in the talks. The European leaders are more optimistic, starting with Germany. The markets, on the other hand, seem to have few doubts, judging by the sharp rises in the European stock exchanges which were followed up on Wall Street, where, in truth, the race in yields on T bonds has more effect, culminating for a few hours in the notorious inversion of the curve: the two-year bond has exceeded the ten-year yield, an alarm bell for the recession. “It is not certain – claims a manager to Reuters – that every time the overtaking occurs the recession arrives. But it is certain that every recession is preceded by this phenomenon”. This is also why yesterday's euphoria seems to have largely vanished.
Lose 1,4% the Tokyo Nikkeithat yen it appreciated significantly against the dollar for the second consecutive day. The cross drops to 121,8, from the highs of the last six years reached at the beginning of the week.
The CSI 300 of the price lists Shanghai and Shenzhen is up 2%. The eastern part of Shanghai remains isolated and in total lockdown, as envisaged by the contagion containment plan which will also affect the western part in a few days. The positives are growing, yesterday they touched 6.000.
South Korea's stock market is around parity, with Mumbai's BSE Sensex up 0,8%.
I Wall Street futures they are little moved. Yesterday, the S&P500 rose for the fourth consecutive session +1,2%. Dow Jones +0.97%. The Nasdaq finished up 1,8%.
Il Ten-Year Treasury Notes, which arrived yesterday close to the alarm threshold of 2,50% yield, traded at 2,34% this morning. The spread between the ten-year and two-year bonds, which fell negative yesterday, is positive again this morning, at 3 basis points.
Il Petroleum WTI recovers, after the decrease of the first two days of the week, to 105 dollars a barrel.
Third day of appreciation of theeuro to 1,111, favored by the "concrete steps" of the negotiations that the delegations of the contenders have spoken about. The Eurostoxx closes at its highest since February 23rd
Is peace approaching, or at least a truce? Since the morning, the European markets have bet on the prospect of a possible agreement despite the icy start of the talks in Istanbul, with the two delegations not shaking hands. But as the hours went by, concrete proposals emerged, even if distrust of Moscow remains.
Hence a formidable rebound. The index eurostoxx 50, which brings together the most important companies in the euro zone, has moved to its highest level since February 23, the day before the start of the invasion of Ukraine. From the lows of March, the index has rebounded by 17,50%, but the loss since the beginning of the year remains large, around 7%.
Milan runs, Paris does better thanks to Renault
Also Business Square (+2,41%) recovers the losses suffered during the war, well exceeding the 25 mark and stopping at 25.307 basis points.
Paris rises by 3,08% driven by the rally of Renault (+11,2%) and Faurecia (components, +17,25%). Madrid + 2,87% Frankfurt +2,35%; Amsterdam + 2,05%.
The more cautious is London (+0,62%), which suffers from the decline of Barclays (-3,47%) after one of the main investors has put shares for about 3% of the bank's capital up for sale.
Moscow insists. We will pay debts in rubles
The indexes in Moscow are mixed, where the trading of international securities has also resumed. The Moex, denominated in rubles, lost 0,91%, while the Rtsi, denominated in dollars, gained 7,11%.
But the economic war does not subside. Moscow not only insists on the payment of the gas in rubles (the request has already been returned to the sender), but has made it known that it intends to repurchase the Eurobonds for 2 billion due next month in rubles and not in dollars.
Fireworks on bonds: Btp up to 2,26%
However, the sales on the bond market did not stop. After touching the highs since April 2020, going up to 2,26%, the Italian 2,12-year rate however closed at the levels seen at the start of the session at around XNUMX%
The yield on the Bund also rose to 0,63% (+6 basis points). The 10-year Italy-Germany spread is trading close to the intraday low of 146 basis points.
The 2-year BTP rate jumped to a maximum of 0,383% from 0,257% at the last closing. Following the news from Istanbul, eurozone money markets have priced in rate hikes by the ECB by more than 65 basis points by the end of the year.
A similar movement also affected the German two-year rate, which returned to positive territory for the first time since 2014.
In the auction, the Italian Treasury yesterday assigned 5 billion six-monthly BOTs with a stable yield of -0,488%.
Rises in yields don't scare Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist. “Most of the eurozone's high inflation is an imported shock that will fade over time,” he said. But falling inflation does not imply that these high prices will reverse. Europe may have to get used to higher prices”.
General: Caltagirone salt. Del Vecchio can buy again
On the day of the rally, the protagonists of the last few sessions held back. Loses blows Generali. Yesterday the stock, after two rising sessions, lost 2,04%, while the Euro Stoxx insurance index rose by 2%. Also yesterday, Delfin (Del Vecchio) and Crt announced that the consultation pact of last September 10, already abandoned by Caltagirone at the end of January, has ceased. The dissolution, dated 27 March, is attributed to the "loss of the purposes for which it was established". It could be that the two parties, now close to 10% (Delfin unofficially has 8,2%, Crt 1,7%), prefer to march divided towards the meeting by buying other shares without violating the 10%, which could request Ivass authorisation.
Francesco Caltagirone has meanwhile risen to 9,519% of the capital, a package that at current prices is worth 2,94 billion.
Tim, the answer to Kkr has been postponed to April 4th
Little move Telecom Italia (-0,12%), awaiting news on the decisions of the board of directors yesterday evening. In a letter sent Monday evening, TIM asked KKR for further clarifications on the terms of the offer for the entire group, indicating the deadline for a response as April 4, explain two sources close to the situation. In particular, the clarifications regarding the confirmation of the price indicated preliminarily in November and whether KKR is willing to carry out a due diligence of an exclusively confirmatory nature, the sources explain.
Dossier Russia: Unicredit, Buzzi and Pirelli fly
Stocks most connected to the business with Russia made a strong recovery. Leading the race is Unicredit (+7,52%) together with the French Société Générale (+8,3%), the other institution most targeted for its presence on the Russian market.
Kbw raises its judgment to Outperform: the new target price is 13,9 euros.
The same analyst reduced the target price of Intesa (yesterday +5,70%), of Bper Banca and of Banco Bpm. Mediobanca rejected.
Runs Buzzi (+7,02%), present both in Russia and in Ukraine. The company was also helped by the confirmation of the buyout of Berenberg and Ubs.
Pirelli also rebounds (+5,09%) already discussed for past ties with Rosneft.
Stellantis boom (+6,6%) after the reassurances of Carlos Tavares on Turin's role as an international engineering competence center for electronics.
Nexi, Deutsche Bank gives mandate to sell a stake
In the spotlight today Nexi: Deutsche Bank has given the bookrunners a mandate to sell a 0,27% stake in the company, according to a source familiar with the matter.
