More positive news is raining from the East for stock markets, already galvanized by Wall Street records and the boost from the ECB. Chinese exports rose more than expected in May (+7% against 6,7% expected), reinforcing the thesis that the recovery of the Dragon, after the stimuli rained down from the centre, is now underway.
Meanwhile, Japan has revised upwards the GDP data for the first quarter: +1,6%. The Nikkei index in Tokyo is up 0,5%. Hong Kong rose by 0,9% followed by Shanghai +0,6%. Korea is also on positive ground +0,3%, while the won rises to its highest level in a year. Thus begins a week that promises to be light, ideal for digesting the shower of news decided by the European Central Bank.
With 15 days to go before the next Federal Reserve meeting, the US macro panorama also promises to be serene: The May employment data confirmed that the recovery is proceeding smoothly, which is ideal for continuing the tapering action without surprises for the markets. In short, the Borsa weather signals a nice stable a bit everywhere.
The US share price rose with the main indices renewing their historic records, which have already been reached several times recently. The Dow Jones closed the week one step away from 17 points, setting the record at 16.924 points, while the S&P 500 is now one step away from the 2-point barrier (1.949), a threshold that a few years ago seemed utopian. The Nasdaq also continues its run: the technological list is just 5,5% below the record set in 2000 in the midst of the internet bubble.
Emerging lists also rose sharply: the Brazilian Bovespa rose +3%. Also in evidence is the Indian Sensex, +1,51. The Eurostoxx index is at its six-year high. The best price list is Milan: in Piazza Affari the FtseMib index rose by 1,5% supported by the sharp rises of the banks. The week ends with a gain of 3% which brings the performance of the Milanese index to +17,5% since the beginning of the year. The index is at 22.290, the highest level in the last seven years (May 2007).
The spotlights are now on the euro traded at 1,363 against the dollar at the end of the week. Contrary to what might have been imagined, the rate cut in the euro area did not favor a depreciation of the currency and on the contrary pushed it slightly higher. According to some economists, the movement can be explained by the strong demand for assets in euros triggered at a global level by the prospects for the recovery of the economy, after the ECB has expressed a very determined orientation in favor of growth.
BTPs FLIGHT TO NEW RECORD AUCTIONS
The sovereign debt market restarts after a historic session in which, after the decisions of the ECB, the previous historical lows were pulverized: the yield on 2-year BTPs was below 0,5% for the first time in history. The five-year bond fell to 1,39%. The 2,81-year yield fell for the first time since the birth of the euro to 6,5%. It is in this climate that the XNUMX billion euro Bot auction will be held on Wednesday, while the next day the Treasury will return to the market offering medium and long-term securities.
S&P'S NEGATIVE OUTLOOK DOESN'T SCARY FOR NOW
Standard & Poor's confirmed Italy's sovereign rating at BBB, with an outlook that remains “negative” because it “reflects the view of the risks on public finances deriving from the low real and nominal growth prospects. The modest growth prospects - underlines S&P - depend on the uncertain progress made by the previous three governments in reforming the domestic labor market and the goods markets, which we believe are less flexible than those of Italy's main trading partners". some severity from the agencies on Italy, but it is true that both on the economic cycle and on reforms we remain further behind than other countries such as Spain”, notes Riccardo Barbieri of Mizuho International. The next pronouncement on Italy is scheduled for Friday 13 June, when Moody's judgment will arrive.
MPS, 5 BILLION TO ERASE THE PAST
The time x has finally arrived. The capital increase of Monte Paschi di Siena starts today, the most important since the 7,5 billion one by Unicredit in 2012. But it's not just the size of the operation, 5 billion, or the fact that the recapitalization is almost double of the current stock market value (equal to 2,94 billion) to make the MPS affair important: above all, the operation is also the thermometer to measure the level of approval of Italian banks, a few months after the entry into force of the Supervision Unique.
On Friday, the stock of the institute, the only one to close in negative territory in the credit comparison, lost 1,9% after announcing the terms of the capital increase: shareholders are offered an option on 214 new shares for every 5 held at the price of 1 euro per share. But on the eve of the start of the operation, the institute received the support of the two new South American partners, Fintch and Btg Pactual, ready to cover even part of the unopted share.
The stock will have an adjusted reference price of 1,54 euros this morning. Finally, it should be noted that Banca Mps is one of Alitalia's creditor banks, with exposure at the end of March of 93,3 million, of which 63,4 million self-liquidating. The capital increases of Banca Popolare di Sondrio and Italcementi are also starting today.
BANKS IN FLIGHT THANKS TO DRAGHI
Eight out of ten stocks in Piazza Affari's weekly top ten belong to the banking sector. In detail, Mediobanca +9% (+4,8% in Friday's session) leads the Ftse Mib, followed by Pop.Milano +8,5% and Bper +7,5%. .6,2%, Intesa Sanpaolo +6,2%, Unicredit +5,9% and Banco Popolare +4,5%. The Board of Banca Etruria began examining the offer made by Popolare Vicenza on Friday: the session was adjourned to 11 June for the adoption of the "pertinent and consequent" decisions.
TELECOM AND MEDIASET, THE TIME FOR CHOICES HAS ARRIVED
The market is betting on the new structure of Telecom Italia +8,2% during the week ( +3,9% on Friday) on the highest since June 2011. The probable dissolution of Telco also falls at a time of great effervescence for the telecommunications : in France the transfer of telephone Bouygues to Orange is looming; in Germany judgment is pending on the Telefonica Kpn operation, destined to reduce the number of mobile operators from 4 to 3, as could soon happen in Italy as a result of the possible marriage between Wind and 3Italia.
Meanwhile, the agreement between TMobil and Sprint should be announced during the week, from which the third US operator should be born, with 82 million subscribers. Hot week also for Digital Plus, the Spanish mobile platform of which Mediaset controls 22%. In days there will be a decision whether to sell (as seems probable) the stake to Telefonica for 350 million or to relaunch. Crucial days also for the auction of TV rights on the Serie A championship. But the tender could be canceled due to the emergence of numerous legal issues that emerged with the offers presented by Mediaset, Sky Italia, Fox Sport and Eurosoport.
