The Tokyo Stock Exchange retreats (-0,6%), after hitting a new high in Monday's session. But the profit-taking on the Nikkei represents the exception in an atmosphere dominated by the Bull on almost all the squares of the global economy. Asian indexes mark their highest levels for three years, thanks also to Chinese inflation data (+2,5%) in line with forecasts. Shanghai advanced by 0,42%, Hong Kong +0,39%, Seoul +0,67%. Emerging stock markets are also galloping, from Mexico (surprise rate cut) to Brazil, where exchange operations continue to curb the real. Meanwhile, the manager Brown Brothers Harriman goes so far as to predict that "this week there will be little news from the stock exchanges of emerging countries: everyone is concentrated on the start of the World Cup".
Against this background, yet another record day on Wall Street is not surprising: the Dow Jones reaches an absolute record for the third day in a row (16.957,8 points) while the S&P 500 +0,04, at the fourth consecutive record, continues its approach march at an altitude of 2000 (yesterday it closed at 1951,27). Finally, the Nasdaq rose by 0,34%. It should be noted that of the last 12 sessions, only two have been negative. There was no shortage of emotion from the Guinness Book of Records: the pharmaceutical company Idenix (leader in hepatitis C drugs) jumped by 229% after the purchase by Merck.
Great interest around Apple + 1,5% at $93,60 in the first session after a stock split (seven new shares against one already owned). Additionally, Japan's Nikkei wrote that Apple is preparing to launch its first wearable device in October, aiming to produce 3 to 5 million smartwatches a month. In the midst of so much euphoria, the markets of "core" Europe were more cautious, with little movement due to the Pentecost holiday celebrated, among other things, in France and Germany. The London and Frankfurt Stock Exchanges posted gains of 0,2%, Paris +0,1%.
A very different climate in the so-called periphery of Europe (less and less periphery on the stock exchange plan), still electrified by the ECB's moves. In Piazza Affari, the FtseMib index rose by 0,8%, to a three-year high. The same rise for the Madrid Ibex index. According to JP Morgan, the recovery of the eurozone markets will soon restart corporate profits: “The combination of accommodative monetary policy, low interest rates and a gradual improvement in the economy should support the growth of corporate profits”. Finally, the euro begins to retreat: the dollar strengthens against the single currency which drops to 1,358 from 1,364 at Friday's closing.
SPREAD AT 133 BP, THE TREASURY OFFERS 8,5 BILLION
BTPs continue to advance on the government bond market, traded at a yield of 2,71%, a new all-time low (from 2,75% on Friday). The spread with the Bund narrowed to 133 (-7 points). Great exploit of the Spanish Bonos which is traded at a yield of 2,58%, better than the US T bond (2,61%). In this positive context, the Treasury is preparing to offer 12 to 6,5 billion BTPs at 8,5, 3 and 5 years in the auction on Thursday 30th. The day before will be the turn of 6,5 billion bots.
MEDIASET IN SPAIN LEAVES OR DOUBLES
The great protagonist of the session was Mediaset, up 4%. The Biscione company has until June 20 to decide what to do with its share in Spanish pay-TV Digital+: it will be able to exercise the right of first refusal to match Telefonica's offer and share control of Digital+ or overcome it with a raise. Or sell the shares at a price of around 350 million. Another driver of the increase is Al Jazeera's interest in joining Mediaset Premium.
Great rise also for Mondadori +5,5%. After a bold start, on the other hand, Telecom Italia's rise reversed, closing 0,2% up after posting +2,5%, for the first time above 1 euro since May 2011. Exane lowered its opinion on the entire European telecommunications sector to Underweight from Neutral.
MPS, THE ACTION FLYES, THE RIGHT RUINS
On the first day of the 5 billion euro capital increase, Monte dei Paschi di Siena shares closed up 20% at 1,848 euros after failing to price throughout the session. The rights lost 6,93% to 21,5 euros and the conditions of the increase led investors to sell the rights and buy the shares. Volumes were sustained: 3,3 million pieces changed hands which, after the grouping of shares which took place on 5 May, or almost 3% of the capital.
The contrasting trend between the share price and the rights depends on technical factors, linked to the hyper-dilutive characteristics of the capital increase and with the derivatives linked to the recapitalisation. In particular, those who have sold call options on the stock are forced to go and buy on the market because they will have to return many more pieces to the customer than before. The operators, therefore, sold the rights to the increase. Hence the opposite trend of rights and shares.
Not a busy day for the other banks: Intesa closes unchanged, Unicredit +0,3%, Ubi +0,1%, Banco Popolare +0,2%. B.Pop. Emilia Romagna loses 0,5%. On Saturday, the shareholders' meeting approved a capital increase of 750 million euros, which will probably be completed by July. Dramatic eve for Carige (-2,5%), which is also suffering from the expectations of the Foundation selling a package of approximately 10,9% of the Genoese institute by tomorrow.
FIAT GETTING INTO SIXTH, ENEL ELECTRICITY
Italcementi has lost 3%: the American broker Bernstein is confident on the positive conclusion of the capital increase in progress. The stock recommendation is confirmed by Market Perform (it will move in line with the rest of the market), the target price is updated to 7,3 euro.
Positive day for industrial stocks led by Fiat +2,4%. Followed by Finmeccanica +1,3% and StM +0,4. Enel rose by 1,55% to 4,334 euros, updating the highs since July 2011 with a peak for the day at 4,348 euros: the CEO of the group, Francesco Starace, would be thinking of extending the scope of discontinued assets to the whole Eastern Europe and to review the corporate organization with the definition of 4 new operating areas. Eni +0,6%.
SLOW START OF THE ITALCEMENTI INCREASE
Italcementi has lost 3%: the American broker Bernstein is confident on the positive conclusion of the capital increase in progress. The stock recommendation is confirmed by Market Perform (it will move in line with the rest of the market), but the target price has been lowered to 7,3 euros (from 8 euros). Autogrills +1,5%, Atlantia +1,1%. Among the smaller stocks, Tiscali's leap (+6,6%) stands out in anticipation of an agreement with the banks to refinance the debt. “Achieving an agreement with the banks is essential for the business continuity of Tiscali which will be called upon to reimburse 108 million euros (out of a total of 131) by July,” reads a note from IBPCI.
