THEUS inflation slows less than expected and eclipses investor optimism about the Fed's next steps. Thus, European markets slowed down in the afternoon, closing mixed, while volatility is strong at Wall Street (DJ -1,1%), now in red after changing sign several times in the first hours of trading.
In Europe Madrid is the best place with a progress of 0,61%, they follow Milano + 0,22% Paris + 0,07% Amsterdam +0,04% and London, +0,04%. The day is not for Frankfurt, the only one with a slight decrease: -0,1%.
Piazza Affari rises and spreads fall
Business Square it is therefore among the best and rises to 27.498 basis points, fleshed out by the rebound of Saipem (+1,8%) and from purchases on Tenaris (+ 2,11%), Unicredit (+ 1,32%), Pirelli (+ 1,14%). Telecom it went positive in the last part of the session, at 0,48%, on the day of the board meeting on the accounts and awaiting news on the network. Profit taking weighs on instead Iveco Group -2,37%, after the full purchases made recently following the 2022 trend and the better than expected 2023 forecasts. You also make up Amplifon -1,05%. The rebates are modest for A2a -0,87% and Prysmian -0,62%. Ferrari loses 0,16%, after the final go-ahead from the European Parliament to the agreement on stop polluting vehicles, will no longer be sold from 2035. However, the prancing horse and Lamborghini will have one more year to align. In the field stellantis it appreciates by 0,44%.
Some indecision was also recorded in the bond market, but the ending is in green for the Italian paper: lo spread it closes at 169 basis points and the ten-year BTP yield is indicated as growing at +4,1%, but the Bund does worse, +2,41%.
According to Bank of Italy, the difference between Italian and German bonds is still too high: “although this year's prudent budgetary action has helped to contain the spread, it remains unacceptably high” he said Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, head of the economics and statistics department of via Nazionale, in a hearing in the chamber on the reform of governance in the EU. "The spread, in addition to having a negative impact on the state accounts, translates into an additional cost and a competitive disadvantage for Italian companies that issue debt on the market".
US consumer prices slow down, but not as much as estimated
Volatility is triggered by data on US consumer prices, slowing down, but not as much as hoped. The index increased by 0,5% in January, after +0,1% in December. The annual figure rose by 6,4% (against expectations of 6,2%), marking the lowest increase since October 2021 (+6,5% in December).
Doubts about the future action of the Fed they are therefore not dispelled and all scenarios are still possible. “It's more or less as expected - the president of the Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin comments with Bloomberg - inflation is normalizing but is slowly decreasing. I think there's going to be a lot more inertia, a lot more persistence than maybe we'd all like."
Moreover, the whitest dove of the FOMC, the vice chair of the Fed Lael Brainard he will move on to another role, for the appointment as head of the National Economic Council, which has the task of coordinating the economic policy of the government
According to Reuters, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least two more times in the coming months, it could do so again according to the majority of economists interviewed, while the hoped-for cut by the end of the year could remain wishful thinking.
Producer price data from last month is expected tomorrow.
Euro-Dollar without compass, oil in decline
Can't find peace dollar first down, then up, then flat. In these minutes the exchange with theeuro it is practically colorless around 1,071.
He misses a few shots yen against the greenback, while measures are being taken with another news of great importance in today's session, namely the appointment of Kazuo Ueda as candidate to lead the Bank of Japan (Boj), in place of the current governor Haruhiko Kuroda , whose mandate expires in early April.
Among the raw materials the Petroleum is declining, but the red is prolific less bright. On the one hand, the fact that the US government has said it will release more crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve weighs in, while crude exports have resumed in a key Turkish port; from above, OPEC has released data showing that global oil demand at the end of 2022 has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Record demand growth is forecast for 2023 as China's economy rebounds.
At the moment futures appear to be down: Brent -1,22%, 85,55 dollars a barrel; Wti -1,61%, 78,85 dollars a barrel.
