The wait for the decisions of the central banks is tinged with different colors today financial markets, in Europe and in the US, but caution is once again the dominant trait on both sides of the Atlantic after yesterday's gains.
The main European lists closed the session slightly lower, while Wall Street it confirmed its tone after the optimism of the eve following a better-than-expected trend in US inflation. It will be later to orient the sentiment further Jerome Powell, who will speak at 20 pm Italian time, at the end of the Federal Reserve meeting. The ECB and BoE will instead pronounce themselves tomorrow.
On the foreign exchange market theeuro consolidates over 1,06 against the dollar (1,066 at the time).
European price lists slightly down
in blackberries, Milano loses 0,26% and retreats to 24.573 basis points, in line with Frankfurt -0,24% Paris -0,21% Amsterdam -0,28% London -0,09%. He stands out positively in the group Madrid +0,41%, where Inditex-Zara stands out (+2,87%), after the leap in net profit (+24%) in the first nine months of the fiscal year of the fashion retail giant.
Nervous government bonds in Europe. The spread rises while Brussels promotes the maneuver with reservations
The nervousness of waiting manifests itself most clearly on eurozone government bonds, which close in the red after yesterday's gains. On the contrary in the USA i T-bond prices they are mainly on the rise and rates stable or declining.
On the secondary it spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds with the same duration, it widens to 191 basis points (+1,61%), with rates rising respectively to +3,83 (from 3,77% yesterday) and +1,93% (from 1,9 .XNUMX%).
Meanwhile, Brussels promotes the Italian maneuver, but with reservations on the weakening of the fight against tax evasion due to the increase in the use of cash, the cancellation of tax debts under one thousand euros (between 2000 and 2015), the limit of 60 euros to refuse pos payments.
For Blackrock, central banks will not cut rates in 2023
On this interim day, what keeps investors in suspense is not so much the uncertainty about the extent of the hikes, which for the Fed and the ECB should be 50 basis points, but about the duration of this policy. How long will central bankers go on the path of fight against inflation, even at the cost of a recession? If the Fed raises i rates by 0,5%, it will bring them to 4,25%-4,50%, but at what point will it stop? At 4,75%-5%, at 5-5,25%? And to what extent will this affect the choices of the ECB?
For Bruno Rovelli, Blackrock's chief investment strategist for Italy, central banks will probably stop in 2023, but a rate cut won't arrive before 2024. Furthermore, bankers find themselves at a crossroads and, after years of inflation below 2%, o they will be willing to accept inflation a little higher than that target or they will have to opt for structurally lower economic growth than that seen in the last ten years.
This is a very delicate prospect for Europe, already heavily penalized by the energy shock caused by the war in Ukraine and related sanctions on Russia. At the time it peaked, energy spending on the Old Continent was "equal to 12 points of GDP, the highest level in history". Businesses and households have been protected from public spending, but this won't last long.
In this context, Italy has a lot to lose and will look carefully at the ECB also for the bonds in the central bank's portfolio, since the choices may especially affect highly indebted countries.
Piazza Affari, utilities in recovery
Purchases and sales have divided the square today without a precise direction. Queen of the price list is the diagnostic company Diasorin +2,09% and it also stands out in the health sector Amplifon +1,12%. After yesterday's weakness, utilities and energy stocks are recovering. Erg + 1,32% A2a + 1,33% Snam + 0,64% Terna + 0,75%.
Back to green Telecom +0,57%. CEO Peter Labriola he says the company aims to reduce debt by selling assets and that the Italian telecommunications sector needs consolidation.
The manager also expects a closing of the 2022 financial statements better than what was communicated to the market and good results from the 2023-2025 business plan.
They return to peep into the top ten of the day stellantis +0,67% and Leonardo +0,39%. Well Banking Generali -0,78%.
The bottom of the list goes to Iveco -2,29%.
Among stocks, oil suffers Eni, -1,48%, which does not take advantage of the good days of Petroleum. Also today Brent is up by 1,45% to 81,85 dollars a barrel; Wti +1,53% 76,54 dollars a barrel.
They go down Unipol -1,27% and stm -1,36%.
The banks are weak starting from Bper -0,74% Unicredit -0,73%.
