Le Bags celebrate, government bonds and raw materials are snapped up, while the dollar deflates and the euro runs: the slowdown in US inflation on the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions opens the doors wide for bulls on the markets.
Exchanges: closing on Tuesday 13 December
In this climate Business Square closed today's session below the highs of the day but with a good rise, +1,37% at 24.627 basis points; the euphoria is more evident a Frankfurt + 2,16% Amsterdam + 1,7% Paris +1,42%. They are more cautious Madrid +0,84% and London + 0,77%.
Wall Street got off to a flying start in the wake of data, with technologists rallying and lo S & P 500 at a three-month high, but the initial enthusiasm is now giving way to a more cautious trend (DJ +0,8%). Among the individual titles, the exploit of Modern +24%, which is paving the way for the cancer vaccine. The company said its experimental mRNA melanoma vaccine, used in combination with immunotherapy from Merck & Co. Keytrud, reduced the risk of recurrence by 44%.
Then the hopes of a world with clean energy in the near future are strengthened. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in California, has confirmed the rumors of recent days: for the first time, a group of scientists has managed to a nuclear fusion that generates more energy than is needed to ignite it.
The dollar deflates and raw materials celebrate
On the foreign exchange market deflates the dollar andeuro the comeback continues, moving in the 1,062 area after having reached a six-month high of 1,064.
They strengthen raw material, from oil to metals. Texan crude appreciated by 2,86% to 75,26 dollars a barrel; Brent + 3%, 80,3 dollars.
THEspot gold it strengthens by about 1,8% to 1812,6 dollars an ounce and copper, silver and platinum are running high.
The prices of the products are also going up government bonds, with yields getting smaller. The US 3,4-year bond currently shows a rate of +3,6% from over XNUMX% yesterday.
European government bond yields are down
Purchases also reward the European card. The XNUMX-year BTP rate drops to +3,77% (from +3,81% yesterday), that of Waist of the same duration, it decreased by one to +1,9% (from +1,93%). spread stable at 188 basis points.
Primary interest rates also fell in the morning three-year BTPs allocated by the Treasury for two billion and for seven years for 3,5 billion. Yields fell 15 cents to 3,07% and 23 cents to 3,61%, respectively.
US consumer prices up 7,1% in November
The news of the day is the slower than expected in US consumer prices in November, after producer prices had instead disappointed in recent days and the labor market had shown great strength.
The merit of last month's slowdown belongs to the drop in the cost of petrol and used cars.
Prices in November therefore grew by 7,1% per annum and by 0,1% per month, expectations were +7,3% and +0,3%. This is the smallest increase since the end of 2021. Core inflation, adjusted for more volatile energy and food prices, rose by 6% and by 0,2%. These levels are still far from the target objective of 2%, but they clear the field of fears of a more aggressive Fed than expected.
Expectations are indeed that Jerome Powell raise rates again by 0,5%, but there were those who feared that he might persist with 75 basis points for the fifth time in a row. A further increase of 25 basis points is expected for February, for rates not exceeding the 4,5-4,75% range
Meanwhile, the US president Joe Biden he argues that “prices should return to normal by the end of 2023”, but “wages have risen faster than prices” and there is still work to be done to put the inflation brigade back.
Remaining on the subject of central banks, tomorrow the BoJ will also pronounce its opinion and Thursday it will be the turn of the ECB and BoE.
As far as the Frankfurt institute is concerned, the economists of Abn Amro believe that the ECB too will limit itself to an increase of 50 basis points. Estimates are then for another two increases from 0,25 in February and March, to reach a peak of 2,5%. Indications on Quantitative tightening, i.e. the reduction of the balance sheet, are also awaited. The ECB could begin to cut reinvestments of maturing securities as early as January, to reach a shutdown from the end of March.
Piazza Affari in dust with Pirelli and Banco Bpm
Pirelli leads the increases in Piazza Affari with an increase of 4,17%, after a few days of weakness. In the automotive sector it stands out Ferrari, +0,81%, on the day the prancing horse revealed the name of its new team principal, the French Fred Vasseur, who will take the place of Mattia Binotto from next January 9th.
Among the banks it stands out Bpm bank, +4,05%, boosted by the news that Enasarco Foundation has acquired a 1,97% stake approximately through a "reverse accelerated bookbuilding" procedure aimed exclusively at qualified investors and foreign institutional investors. The price paid per share is 3,4 euros, for a total of 101,5 million. The move reignites speculation about the future of the bank in terms of M&A. Well in general the sector.
Agreement SP it appreciates by 1,57%. According to press rumors, the group has started negotiations with Gazprombank to sell its local subsidiary Intesa Russia. Outside the main list, it closes an effervescent session Ps + 6,48%.
Among the most toned blue chips of the day they stand out stm + 3,48% Interpump +3,55% and more Moncler + 3,16%.
Bene General, +1,04%, after improving its own estimates on the synergies deriving from the acquisition of Cattolica.
Among the oil stocks are in light Tenaris +3,41% and Saipem, +2,43%. The latter celebrates the decision of the Algiers Court of Appeal, which rejected a request for damages from the Algerian Treasury, leading to the release from seizure of 63,2 million euros.
The modest decreases mainly concern utilities, penalized by the Antitrust decision which initiated seven investigative proceedings and decided to adopt the same number of precautionary measures against the main companies supplying electricity and natural gas on the free market. They go down Ivy -0,47% Italgas -0,27% Snam -0,33%. Also at the bottom of the list Telecom -0,29% and Recordati -0,02%.
