An apparent calm reigns on stock markets as trading resumes after a turbulent week. The euro and the yen recover positions: the single currency recovers to 1,2287 from Friday's lows. Oil is also recovering, at 63,5 dollars after having suffered a drop of more than 10% from the highs of January 26th. The production of American shale oil remains at record levels. In Riyadh, meanwhile, the Ritz Carlton hotel, already transformed into a gilded prison, has reopened its doors. To recover their freedom, the Saudi billionaires accused of corruption had to pay over 13,5 billion dollars from the state coffers.
TOKYO CLOSED, CHINA GETTING READY FOR THE YEAR OF THE DOG
The holidays will take care of calming the tensions on the Asian stock exchanges. Today the Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed for a national holiday, while from Thursday the Chinese Stock Exchanges will close their doors until the 21st to celebrate the New Year (the Year of the Dog is about to arrive). While waiting for the break, this morning Hong Kong tries a modest rebound (+0,7%) after the heavy losses of last week (-9,55%). The Csi 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen (+1,2%) is also recovering, another market hit hard by the sales in recent sessions (-8,5%). The yuan rises again, traded at 6,30 against the dollar. The climate of the Olympics is good for the Seoul Stock Exchange (+1,2%).
FUTURES RISING, SPOTLIGHT ON US INFLATION
A strong recovery is looming for the European Stock Exchanges and Wall Street after the collapses that preceded the weekend. London futures report a 1,2% increase. The contracts on the S&P500 index were also brilliant (+0,7%). But prudence is a must: since the beginning of February, the gains since the beginning of the year have been wiped out on the markets, burning over 7 trillion dollars of capitalization globally. And so Wall Street, in full correction (the losses of the Dow Jones and S&P500 have exceeded 10% from their highs) look forward to Valentine's Day with trepidation.
On Wednesday 14, in fact, the data on US inflation for January will be announced. The following day it will be the turn of the producer price index. If the two indicators signal higher-than-expected increases (the retail price index rose by 2,1% in December), market rates could take flight and stock indexes suffer a new, profound collapse. Today, meanwhile, the White House should provide two important indications on the economic policy lines for 2018. First of all, the president will announce the size of the increase in the defense budget. Equally awaited are the indications on investments in infrastructure. A sharp increase in spending, made possible by the new budget, risks pushing up inflation.
GERMAN GOVERNMENT, IT'S NOT DONE YET
In Europe, anticipation is growing for the next electoral appointments. We look at the uncertain outcome of the Italian policies of March 4, but a vote was added on the same date that perhaps even more scares. That day, members of the German SPD will have to decide whether or not to approve Merkel's participation in the government. The anger of the members convinced the president of the party, Martin Schulz, to give up the post of foreign minister over the weekend. But the outcome of the consultation among the 460 eligible to vote remains uncertain, as does the fate of the government and the fate of Angela Merkel herself.
PADOAN: GDP COULD RISE TO 2%
The growth of the Italian gross domestic product should be in the order of 1,5% again this year and "remain above 1% also in the next two years", said the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, in his speech at Assiom Forex on Saturday. The Economy Minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, argued that, thanks to the public investments in the pipeline, "it is possible to achieve growth above 2%".
Strengthened by these data and, above all, by the comforting indications coming from the accounts of the banks, Intesa and Unicredit in the lead, Piazza Affari has limited the damage, albeit significant, of the decline: the overall loss of the last week was 4,5% , but the Italian Stock Exchange is the only one still in positive ground since the beginning of 2018.
BOT AUCTION TODAY AND BANCA MEDIOLANUM ACCOUNTS
Government bond auctions kick off this morning. Today it's the turn of the offer of 6,5 billion Bots. We continue tomorrow with medium-long term securities. The attention of operators is also directed to Greece, following the successful placement of the 7-year bond. Ficth's rating on Greece will be announced on Friday.
At Piazza Affari the key appointments concern the preliminary final balances of Enel, to be released on Wednesday 14th and of Eni (Friday 15th). Today the calendar includes the conference call on the accounts of DoBank, Elica and Banca Mediolanum. The meeting for the paid capital increase of Igd is still held today.
