ROCKET START OF THE ASIAN EXCHANGES
THE HOLDING OF THE GDP WEIGHTS ON THE BUSINESS PLACE
Also Asia allows itself a day of glory, in the wake of the roaring closure of European and Wall Street stocks on Friday. Both Tokyo and Hong Kong boast gains of more than 2 percent. The positive news coming from Athens contributes to comforting the rise.
The inspectors of the Trojka have issued, great news, a positive opinion on the efforts of the executive in recent weeks. It is in this more relaxed climate that the auction of Greek 26-week T-bills will take place. The goal is to meet the August 20 deadline by repaying the 3,1 billion in maturing securities and avoid default. In this regard it seems, but it is not official, that the ECB summit of 2 August also served to promise Athens a small but decisive help.
Wall Street closed higher Friday night: Dow Jones +1,69%, S&P +11,90%, Nasdaq +2%, thus celebrating the positive data on new jobs even if the jobless index marked a slight increase to 8,3%. Among the positive data, the recovery of the construction sector and the real estate market also stands out.
In Europe, Piazza Affari, the best, literally flew over 14. The Ftse Mib index rose by 6,11 to 14.095 bp thanks to financial stocks in full recovery. Madrid follows, gaining 5,62%. Frankfurt earns 3,95% Paris 4,03%, London +2,18%.
No less strong was the reaction on Italian government bonds with the 2-year spread contracting by 65 basis points to 312 (2-year BTP yield 3,06%). The yield of the 12-month Bot drops to 2,65%. The 10-year BTP/Bund spread decreased by 33 basis points to 472 (10-year BTP yield at 6,04%). Similar recoveries also for Spanish Bonos, whose yields however remain at a safe distance from those of Italian government bonds: Bono 10 years 6,95%.
The Italy of the Btp has closed the shutters for the August holidays. The Italy of Bots will present itself at the appointment with the markets on August 13th when a new 12-month BoT auction is scheduled, compared to 7,15 billion annual bonds and 3 billion quarterly.
On one point, however, they all agree: August will be a month of high volatility. Waiting for the indications coming from the meeting of governors in Jackson Hole (August XNUMXth), there will be "hot" days.
The trial by fire will start tomorrow, when the Italian GDP data for the second quarter will be announced. Close attention was also paid to the German industrial production index and, on Thursday, to Beijing's inflation figures and the Chinese trade balance.
This morning, however, the market will have to deal with yet another warning from the rating agencies. Standard & Poor's has raised the economic risk linked to Italy from «4» to «5»., which could face a deep and prolonged recession. The rating agency forecasts an economic contraction for Italy of 2,1% in 2012 and 0,4% in 2013. «The current state of the Italian economy – reads the report – is increasing the vulnerability of quality of the assets of Italian banks". As a result, Standard & Poor's changed the rating of 32 institutions, lowering it to 15, including Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Banca Popolare di Milano. The agency left the ratings of UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo and Mediobanca unchanged. Among the downgraded banks is Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna.
The governor of the Bank of Italy freezes hopes of a rapid recovery but promotes Mario Monti, with one reservation: "The European Bank has taken a decisive turn to defend the euro, but we are still in a financial and economic emergency: we will be in recession again next year". And again: “The country must regain confidence. For now, we don't need help from the Fund", but the government led by Mario Monti must speed up the reforms: "I told Chancellor Merkel of the growing resentment here in Parliament against the EU, against the euro, against the Germans and sometimes against the chancellor himself” said Prime Minister Mario Monti in an interview with 'Spiegel'. “This, however – adds the professor – is a problem that goes far beyond the relationship between Germany and Italy. The tensions that have accompanied the Eurozone for years already have the characteristics of a psychological dissolution of Europe. We have to work hard to counter them."
Summit this morning of the guarantee consortium of the Fonsai increase. The banks' goal is to place 10% of the capital with minority shareholders within the week and thus reduce the effort required of the consortium (Mediobanca, Unicredit, Ubs, Nomura, Barclays and Deutsche Bank) below 400 million. The placement operation could start on Wednesday. Among the possible buyers is Raffaele Mincione, the Roman financier based in London who has risen to the honors of the financial news for having acquired 80 million unexercised rights of the Bpm capital increase. The first meeting between Carlo Cimbri and the managers of FonSai will also be held on Wednesday. The intention of Unipol's CEO is to shorten the timing of the technical passages functional to the four-party merger, starting from the share swap ratios. For this reason, but not only, Cimbri also urged that the Premafin assembly be held earlier than already foreseen,
