Fasten your seatbelts: there will be a lot of dancing on the financial markets this morning. Asian stocks are in deep red on the back of Friday's steep declines that affected both stocks and bonds. The fuse that unleashed the decline was lit by Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed, who hoped for a rate hike at the meeting of the Central Bank on September 21st. The majority of economists do not believe in such a quick move, but at the same time the concern of the American Central Bank not to be caught off guard by inflation is now evident. Within a few hours, US stocks lost more than 2%, soon followed by Piazza Affari and the other European indices. The landslide of debt securities was far more impressive: for the first time since July, the ten-year Bund returned to positive ground, while the US T-bond rose to 1,67%.
Is it an adjustment or a trend reversal after a long calm? What are the real intentions of the Fed? The first response will come tonight from Chicago, where Lael Brainard, a well-known "dove" of the monetary committee, will speak: "If Janet Yellen wants to signal to the markets her intention to raise rates, Miss Braynard, very close to the president, is the right ambassador ”, comments Michael Gapen of Barclays. The possible turbulence risks complicating the navigation of Piazza Affari, already conditioned by the pre-referendum climate.
SAMSUNG -6,2%: FIRE RISK FOR THE NOTE 7
Sharp declines in Tokyo, down 1,5%. Sydney is doing worse (-2,2%). Hong Kong, which last week had reached a new all-time high, left the opening 2,8%. Little better Shenzhen (-2,2%) and Shanghai (-1,8%). The Asia-Pacific index is down 2,2%.
Uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's next moves contributes to unnerving the markets, which will meet on 21 September, coinciding with the Fed meeting: "They are studying - said an assistant to governor Kuroda - various options to make it more steep yield curve.
The Chinese central bank today set the yuan against the dollar at 6,6856 (-0,34%) at a month-low.
Samsung thud: -6,2% this morning in Seoul. The company has launched an appeal not to use Note 7, the latest smartphone from the Korean giant, after several devices caught fire. Samsung will deliver a new model to all customers around the world.
Accelerate the descent of oil. Both Brent, traded at 47,23 dollars a barrel, and Wti, slightly above 45 dollars, suffer losses of just under 2%.
OPENINGS IN EUROPE DOWN BY 2%.
Futures this morning signal a weak opening for Wall Street after Friday's landslide, which cost the S&P index a 2,45% drop. Watch out for bankers, up 9% since the beginning of the year (against +1,4% for the index), the most sensitive to a possible rate hike.
Same turbulent atmosphere in Europe. A sharply declining opening is expected in London (-96 points to 6.680). Losses exceeding 2% at the start in Frankfurt (-231 points to 10,342 for the Dax index) and in Paris (-84 points to 4,407 for the Cac 40 index).
Piazza Affari is even more vulnerable, under the renewed pressure on bank stocks. Last week's balance is a drop of 0,1%, much better than the 1,4% drop in the overall index of the Stoxx 600 European stock exchanges. Since the beginning of the year, the FtseMib has lost 19,9%, against - 5,6% of the European index.
The insurance companies did well: Generali +3,9%, Unipol +5,1%. The fear of a rise in interest rates has triggered widespread sales on utilities and in the construction sector, which are more sensitive to the cost of money. Enel lost 1,3%, Terna -2,4%, Snam -2%, Atlantia -1,9%. The worst performance was that of Buzzi (-7,2%), excluded from Kepler Chevreux's list of favorite stocks.
MARKETS HANGING ON THE FED: ALSO WATCH OUT FOR THE BUOY
Central banks will undoubtedly be the protagonists this week. Tonight, in addition to Lael Braynard, Dennis Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed and Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis will also speak. The meeting of the top management of the Bank of England on Thursday was also important: according to analysts Marc Carney will postpone, as did Lario Draghi, the adoption of new expansionary measures.
In Europe, the spotlight is on inflation, which remains very far from the objective of price growth close to 2%, the objective of the ECB mandate.
In Italy, we also look at the data on the quarterly unemployment rate which will be published by Istat. After the slowdown in the PMI indices, the numbers of industrial production for July are awaited with apprehension.
The surge in interest rates is not good news for the Treasury in view of the month-end auctions. We start today with the 6-month Bot auction. Tomorrow it will be the turn of medium-long term securities.
Eni's board meeting is expected this week: the launch of the marketing of Kashagan crude has been postponed to November.
WALL STREET JOURNAL RAISES THE ALARM ON UNICREDIT
The shadow of the referendum hovers over Piazza Affari. Especially on banks, pending capital operations. The postponement of the Monte Paschi recovery plan to 2017 seems highly probable (-2,2% on Friday, in line with the market). It will be one of the first decisions to be taken by the CEO who will take the place of Fabrizio Viola, deemed unsuitable to reappear on the market for a new capital increase. In pole position to replace him remains Marco Morelli, current number one of Merrill Lynch in Italy, formerly of the Sienese bank and Intesa San Paolo. The official induction should arrive on Thursday.
The councils of Banco Popolare (+2,5% on Friday) and Banca Popolare Milano will be held today, which will have to convene the meetings of the two institutions in view of the marriage, the first since the existence of the single European Supervisory Authority and the law reforming the popular banks. This concludes the rapprochement process between the two banks which began at the end of 2015 and which saw many moments of tension and difficulty, including with Frankfurt. Including a capital increase of one billion, requested by the ECB from Banco Popolare to dispose of the bad debts more quickly. But from here to the longed-for yes there will still be resistance and possible twists and turns: the associations of employees and retired members of Piazza Meda promise battle.
Still under observation Unicredit. This morning The Wall Street Journal wrote that "the bank's problems could threaten not only the Italian economy, which is already ailing, but also the fragile financial stability of the whole of Europe". In such a setting, it is understandable why CEO Jean Pierre Mustier does not hide his desire to close the most important sales dossiers before the referendum campaign gets underway, which will keep international investors away from buying in Italy.
Therefore the Auction for Pioneer is heating up. The asset management giant supervised by the Treasury, worried about the possible passage into foreign hands of the second owner of BOTs and BTPs. According to rumors, there are five possible buyers admitted to the auction: Allianz, Banca Generali, Amundi, Macquarie as well as the Italian Post Office. The placement of the 30% of the company led by Francesco Caio still held by the Treasury will be postponed to 2017.
