Caught between two fires, the Omicron variant and the expectation of more restrictive monetary policies by central banks, the markets are experiencing another session marked by uncertainty, while oil falls, infections increase and the Fed is preparing to announce its decisions.
Business Square it is positive and closes with a gain of 0,41% to 26.666 points, led by Bper (+6,08%), after the non-binding offer for the purchase of Carige (+13,65%). More timid Generali (+0,27%), in the light of new plan expecting higher profits and higher dividends. The oil stocks and other banks weigh down the list.
The other European lists are contrasted: Frankfurt +0,18%; Paris +0,47%; Amsterdam -0,04%; Madrid -1,23%; London -0,65%.
Wall Street, flat at the start, is moving more continuously down especially with the Nasdaq, while the spotlight is about to turn on Jerome Powell's press conference.
HOW FALCON WILL THE CENTRAL BANK BE?
After the Fed chairman recently dropped inflation from the term "temporary" and after the latest data on consumer and producer price hikes in November to levels not seen for many years, economists' expectations are for a faster tapering, which will go from a withdrawal of stimuli from 15 to 30 billion a month (out of 120 billion of monthly purchases), to close in March and one or two rate hikes in the course of 2022. According to Reuters more restrictive moves would come as a “hawkish” surprise.
At the end of the two days that closes today, the Fed should also communicate its new growth and inflation forecasts, and the various central bankers will also be able to change their forecasts for future rates.
Trouble is, these decisions come as the world prepares to deal with the Omicron variant rampage, which is apparently much worse than we've seen so far.
FOR ECDC, VACCINES ARE NOT ENOUGH AGAINST OMICRON
The new alarm cry on the South African variant of the coronavirus comes today from the ECDC, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, according to which "the probability of further spread of the Omicron variant is very high and vaccination alone does not allows you to prevent its impact; Strong action is urgently needed to reduce transmission and contain the impact on health systems. Rapid introduction of non-pharmaceutical measures is needed to reduce transmission of the Delta variant and slow down Omicron." These are the words of Andrea Ammon, director of the centre. All countries are taking measures, including Italy which has irritated Brussels, introducing a quarantine for those who enter the country, even from the European Union and are not vaccinated and also taking swabs for everyone in the previous 48 hours.
"There is Omicron which has a clearly superior contagion capacity than the other variants - says Prime Minister Mario Draghi - in Italy the infections with Omicron are less than 0,2%, in other countries the variant is very widespread: I don't think there is much to think about".
OIL DOWN FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY
The global context appears unfavorable to the Petroleum, which continues to move downwards (albeit less than in the previous hours).
An increase in coronavirus cases driven by the new variant will hurt global oil demand as supply prepares to grow, especially in the US, with supplies set to outpace demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). until at least the end of next year.
In contrast to those forecasts, OPEC on Monday raised its forecast for global oil demand for the first quarter of 2022.
Meanwhile, US oil inventories fell for the sixth time in the past 13 weeks last week and did so more than experts expected. In this context, Brent and WTI futures are down fractionally and trade respectively around 73,25 dollars a barrel and 70,15 dollars.
DOLLAR AND T-BOND AT THE WINDOW
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar is awaiting news from the US central bank. The euro-dollar exchange rate is currently at yesterday's levels around 1,263.
The same calm invests US government bonds, with T-Bonds stopped before Powell's words. The 1,439-year rate is at the levels seen yesterday, at XNUMX%.
EYES ON THE BPER AND GENERALI IN PIAZZA AFFARI
There are two titles under the spotlight today on the main price list of Piazza Affari, Bper and Generali. The Modenese bank was rewarded with purchases after announcing yesterday evening a non-binding offer to the Interbank Deposit Protection Fund (FITD) for 88,3% of Carige at the price of 1 euro. Bper has also undertaken to launch a takeover bid for the remaining capital. The market rewards the offer which may represent a good move to add a new piece to the bank's dimensional growth, even if it is not a 'transformational' deal and doubts remain about the effective relaunch of the network. The word now passes to the other banks which, through the Fitd, are called to recapitalize Carige for one billion euros.
Pop Sondrio also did well, seen as a further target for the growth plans of Bper and its main shareholder Unipol (+1,28%).
The big names are declining Unicredit -1,79%, after yesterday's leap and Understanding -1,03%.
The market reaction was instead rather tepid to Generali's plan, which sees an increase in dividends and the first buyback for 15 years now.
As far as the other blue chips are concerned, healthcare sector stocks recorded significant increases, such as Recordati +2,62%, Diasorin + 2,38% Amplifon + 2,17%.
In the luxury sector, Moncler +2,57% rebounds and, outside the main basket, Cucinelli (+6,59%), which yesterday, with the market closed, announced that it had raised its growth guidance on revenues for 2021.
Good Stm +2,15%, on which Moody's raised the rating to Baa2 from Baa3, with the outlook going from positive to stable.
They are in red Tenaris -3,09% Saipem -1,64% ed Eni -1,322%. A2a also decreased -2,01%.
SPREAD FALLING WAITING FOR THE ECB AND INFLATION
The Italian secondary closes in green, on the eve of the decisions of the European Central Bank: lo spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration, it fell to 128 basis points (-1,49%), with the BTP rate falling to +0,91% (-0,37% for the Bund).
Meanwhile, Istat has revised downwards the trend data relating to Italian inflation for November which, in the second reading, is at 3,7% (from 3,8%), the highest figure since September 2008. On a monthly basis recorded an increase of 0,6 percent. The further acceleration, on a trend basis, of inflation is once again due largely to the prices of energy goods (from +24,9% in October to +30,7%) and, in particular, to those of the component unregulated (from +15% to +24,3%), while the regulated component, while maintaining very sustained growth, recorded a slight slowdown (from +42,3% to +41,8%).
