Another increase in interest rates in September or a pause in the bullish cycle? The ECB's position is "a decided maybe", said the president Christine Lagarde during the press conference that followed the announcement of the interest rate hike of 25 basis points established in July. After nine consecutive rate hikes, the opening of the ECB to a possible stop sent the European stock exchanges into raptures, prompting them to close the session with sustained and hopeful rises. And on Wall Street the music does not change, with the three main stock exchanges proceeding positively following the Fed's decision (another increase of 25 bps) and the above-expected growth of the US GDP.
Stock market closing 27 July: European price lists in great shape, Milan at its highest since 2008
The rate hike had already been discounted in recent weeks, so what counted was the new "spirit" shown by the ECB, much less hawkish and much more dovish. The European Stock Exchanges, already largely positive in the morning, found in the words of the Eurotower the driving force necessary to close the session with a sharp rise. At the end of the ride Amsterdam e Paris earn respectively 2,2%, Frankfurt 1,7%, Madrid 1,1%. More backward London (+0,3%), waiting for the BoE to conclude the cycle of central bank meetings next week.
Separate chapter for Milano: the Ftse Mib ended the day with a rise of 2,13%, finally returning above the 29 point level (already surpassed in yesterday's session) to 29.597 basis points, the highest level ever reached since August 2008.
Wall Street also up after the Fed and the US GDP
Positive session a Wall Street, after economic growth in the United States accelerated in the second quarter (+2,4% versus +2% in the first quarter) with activity remaining broadly resilient despite the country's aggressive monetary policy tightening Federal Reserve. Furthermore, macro data showed that price pressures are easing, with the PCE price index rising by 2,6% in the second quarter. Yesterday evening, as widely expected, the Fed announced a hike in fed funds rates by 25 basis points, to 5,25-5,50%, the highest level for 22 years, but investors hope that the US central bank is now about to take a potentially long break in increases. The choices will be linked to macro data, reiterated the number one of the Fed, Jerome Powell.
Wall Street's optimism also comes from the positive earnings of Big Tech. Everyone's eyes are especially focused on Goal, which travels up 6,7% after better than expected results and strong indications for the next quarter. In this context the Dow Jones proceeds above parity (+0,2%, lo S & P 500 earns 0,5%, the Nasdaq rises by 1,1%.
Stm, Moncler and Stellantis fly to Piazza Affari, the banks are more backward
The quarterly send into orbit stm (+ 8,67%) and Moncler (+7,09%). On the shields after the accounts also stellantis (+5,46%), which also celebrates the upward revision of analysts' estimates and proceeds with great strength despite the cut in sales estimates arrived from Volkswagen (-2,2%). Instead, it closes in largely positive territory Renault (+2%) after showing revenue growth of 27% and record profitability and having raised estimates for 2023.
Returning to Milan, they run Prysmian (+ 4,9%), Diasorin (+ 4,84%) and Azimuth (+4,24%). Purchases after the quarterly also on Amplifon (+2,28%) ed Enel (+1,46%). salt Mediobanca (+3,69%) after publishing i best results ever and after the CEO Alberto Nagel has given his availability for a new mandate.
On the other hand, the other banks are weak, weighed down by the ECB's decision to reset the interest rate it pays to banking institutions on minimum reserves in order to reduce the amount disbursed after an unprecedented increase in rates. Previously, the Eurotower remunerated lenders' minimum reserves at the same level as the deposit rate, which it has now increased to 3,75%. According to the president of the ABI, Antonio Patuelli, the "surprise" decision of the ECB "from now on will cost the banks, just as the decision of the ECB last autumn to make the residual liquidity granted by the ECB significantly costly to banks through Tltro's long-term financing plans”. According to analysts, the impact of the decision on banks in the euro area will be 6 billion. In this context Bper lose 1,61%, Ps 1,15%. Bucking Intesa Sanpaolo (+1,34%) on the eve of the quarterly.
The utilities also slip: Erg (-1,08%), Snam (-0,39%), Terna (-0,69%).
The other markets
Prices go up Petroleum, with the market expecting a reduction in supply by the major crude oil producers in order to counterbalance the fears related to the increase in US rates: September WTI futures rise by 1,45% to 79,92 dollars a barrel , those of September Brent by 1,1% to 83,85 dollars. The price of the gas.
Turning to the secondary, after the ECB it spread between the Btp and the bund it fell to 159 basis points, with the yield on the Italian ten-year bond at 4,0811 (-0,2%).
