The winds of war are blowing ever stronger, slowing down the global economy. But suddenly Taurus sounds the charge. The stock markets find their way back up, they slow down the dollar and oil. The reason? Two Fed bankers, breaking the line of rigor, have made it known that thanks to the increases in market rates, the central bank's objectives have now been achieved.
The stock markets are all on the rise today despite the war
In the wake of the unexpected flight of the doves, the stock markets are experiencing a day of grace today: Piazza Affari +1,7% accelerates above 28.100, in line with the rise that began on Monday evening in the USA after the declarations of the numbers one in Dallas and Philadelphia.
Neither Israel's dramatic situation with the markets is enough to slow down the momentum of the markets possible repercussions on oil and gas, nor the IMF warning about slowing growth.
Oil falling, the effect on gas more sensitive
On the energy front, oil Brent and WTI is falling by 0,1% to 86,5 dollars a barrel, +4,3% yesterday. Israel is a very marginal oil producer and therefore recent developments will have minimal direct impact on oil supply,” Warren Patterson, an analyst at ING, wrote in a note. The effect on the more sensitive natural gas rose 4% in Europe at 46 euros/MWh, at the highest levels of the last four months. Israel has reduced its gas supply to Egypt by a fifth, which in turn supplies liquefied gas to Europe.
Il International Monetary Fund estimates that the growth of the world economy will slow down in the two-year period 2023-2024. But the slowdown, caused by the increase in rates to combat inflation, will not translate into a collapse, according to the Outlook, also because the economy is improving in the USA (+2,1% compared to the previous +1,5 %) compensating for China's failure to take off (only +5 in 2023).
Bond rebound, driven by Treasuries and doves
These considerations are displaced by bond rebound which started yesterday evening after the Columbus Day break. The ten-year Treasury note fell to 4,65%, -16 basis points. The phenomenon soon spread to Europe. The German 2,77-year Bund fell to 2,85% from 4,82%. The ten-year BTP at 4,90% from 200%. The spread is confirmed above XNUMX points.
In the morning the member of the Governing Council of the ECB, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, stated that i interest rates Euro zone currents, which reached a record 4% last month, are at a "good level", adding that it is not the right time for further increases.
Cnh and Stellantis are competing in Piazza Affari
All major stock markets with the exception of energy are on the rise, with the mining, automotive and tourism sectors leading the gains in Europe.
In Milan they run CNH +3,2% e Stellantis +2,9% (awarded by Deutsche Bank) ahead of Ferrari. The banks led by Bper are also restarting ahead of the Big Unicredit and Intesa. In great recovery as well Telecom Italy.
The only stock in pale red on the list at 13pm is Tenaris -0,1%. He even records a rebound there Juventus +1,2%. The company will not return to the bond market to renew the 175 million euro bond maturing in February next year.
