It's Fed Day. Tonight, at 20 pm Italian time, the US central bank will reveal its decision on rates which, in all likelihood, will remain unchanged at current levels. A hypothesis that has become even more concrete after the data on theUS inflation which slowed more than expected by falling to 4%, the lowest rate since March 2021, compared to 4,9% in April and below the expected 4,1% expected by analysts. Everyone's ears will therefore be turned to the words and tones used by the president Jerome Powell which could provide indications on the moves that the Federal Reserve intends to make between now and the end of the year.
“The Fed is right where it should be right now. The central bank has managed to raise interest rates to its desired target and largely rule out cuts for the rest of the year, without disrupting the US economy, at least for now,” said Erik Weisman, Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager MFS IM, who however warns: “This is precisely the moment when political error can occur. A prolonged rate hike risks driving up costs in all areas of the economy and exacerbating the inevitable slowdown, while ignoring the possible need to continue raising rates could allow inflation to settle at lower levels high and the economy to grow rather than slow down”.
By now almost assuming a stop in June, "the market expects, with about 80% probability, that the Fed will raise rates by 25 percentage points in July - continued Weisman - Inflation continues to fall and we expect core CPI inflation to be below 4% by the end of the year, with headline inflation possibly falling as low as 2 or 3%.
Stock exchange latest news: EU price lists tonic in the middle of the day
The inflation figure and the prospect of an initial halt to rate hikes by the Fed instill optimism in the European stock exchanges which tomorrow will also have to face the decision of the ECB (in this case the forecast is for a rate hike of 0,25%) . In the meantime, the price lists of the old continent are proceeding sharply upwards, with Business Square wearing the pink jersey (+1,37% to 27.943 points) driven by Telecom Italia and the banks.
Slightly more contained purchases on the other Bags: Madrid earn 0,88%, Paris 0,64% (15,8% for the group Casino after the preliminary expression of interest of the consortium of entrepreneurs f made up of Xavier Niel, Matthieu Pigasse and Moez-Alexandre Zouari). In the middle of the day Frankfurt e Amsterdam they are up 0,4%, while outside the EU it is more timid London (+0,28%). The London market has focused attention on theVodafone and CK Hutchison agreement (check operator Three in the UK) for the merger of the UK mobile operations. It was officially announced in the late morning and it will be the largest operator in the country with an investment project of 11 billion pounds over 10 years. Vodafone will hold 51% of the new company, Hutchison the remaining 49%. Vodafone shares are up 3% on the London Stock Exchange.
Piazza Affari sharply up with Telecom Italia and banks, Mfe down
In Milan it is back as a protagonist Telecom Italy, queen of the day with an increase of 5,76%. The possible entry of the infrastructure fund F2i in the game for the reorganization of the network gives operators confidence in a positive solution and causes the prices to bounce back to their lowest levels for 5 months in recent days. After that the new offers arrived from the US fund Kkr and the alliance between Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and Macquarie still do not seem to have satisfied Tim and its main shareholder Vivendi, the wait is for a turning point in the game for the network. The managing director of F2i, Renato Ravanelli, told Radiocor that the fund is in dialogue with the subjects involved in the operation and press rumors suggest a probable alliance with the American fund.
The banks put yesterday's declines behind them and start running. To pull the sprint is Ps (+ 4,13%), followed by Bpm bank e B for Bank which respectively mark +3,67% and +3,29%. Toned Unicredit (+3,49%) following the position taken by CEO Andrea Orcel who, at the Fabi congress, was cautious about salary increases requested by bankers after the openings of the ceo of Intesa Sanpaolo (+2,29%), Carlo Messina.
The car also increased with stellantis (+ 2,22%) and Iveco (+1,47%). Well Diasorin (+1,93%). Profit-taking strikes instead Leonardo (-0,67%) And Interpump (-0,2%).
Outside the Ftse Mib, the slowdown in the securities of the Berlusconi galaxy should be noted on the day of the state funeral and national mourning for the death of the patriarch, lose ground. After two days of rallies due to the hypothesis, the shares are rearranged Mfe A they lost 2,7% and the Mfe B 3,96%).
Also highlighted is the performance of Dovalue (+ 4,58%) and Living In (+6,30%). The latter presented the half-year accounts which show a sharp drop in debt and announced the distribution of an extraordinary coupon.
The other markets: eight euros to 1,08 dollars, the price of gas falls
On the currency market, the exchange rate between euro and dollar it returns above the 1,08 threshold and reaches 1,0804 (from 1,0819 on the previous day). After yesterday's gains due to the rate cut established by the Central Bank of China, the increase continues Petroleum, with Brent (+1,32%) at 75,27 dollars a barrel and Wti (+1,25%) at 70,29 dollars a barrel.
The price of natural gas TTF on the Amsterdam market it stands at 34,96 EUR/MWh, down by more than 2%.
Finally, on the bond, lo spread between BTp and Bund is down to 162 basis points from 164 on the eve, with the yield of the ten-year benchmark BTp rising to 4,0799% compared to 4,06% yesterday.
