The Monetary Fund seeand world growth slow down, also due to the economic earthquake represented by the war in Ukraine, but Wall Street is traveling buoyant in the morning the American and the European lists followed suit, recovering part of the day's losses.
In any case, the closure in Europe remains weak: Milan is the worst, -0,96% (24.624 basis points) due to the coupon detachment by eight big names which weighs on the main index by about one percentage point. Paris retreats, -0,83%, in view of Sunday's electoral ballot between Macron e The Pen. Frankfurt -0,07% and Madrid -0,4% are flat, Amsterdam -0,43% and London -0,16% are down.
They also continue widespread sales on the bond, with the hawkish James Bullard keeping attention on the Fed, reiterating that US rates could rise by 3,5% by the end of the year (and even a pace of 75 basis points at a time cannot be ruled out). The 2,91-year Treasury thus shows a yield above 2018%, the highest since XNUMX.
The dollar keeps flying high. The greenback index rose above 101 for the first time since March 2020 and hit a 20-year high against the yen, testing a two-year high against the euro. The single currency is, at the moment, in a very slight recovery, but is in any case trading below 1,08.
The super dollar weighs on the oil, which retreats after recent gains, with Libya having interrupted some exports and Shanghai factories preparing to reopen after the covid Brent crude oil drops 4,3% and trades at 108,29 dollars a barrel; Wti -4,12% $103,75. The gas depreciates a bit at the TTF in Amsterdam. In the morning the contract dropped 3,5% to 92,20 euros per megawatt hour.
Reverse gold, -1,31%, 1952,69 dollars per barrel.
Cold shower from the IMF on the Eurozone and Italy
The International Monetary Fund cuts its forecasts for world GDP growth in 2022, from 4,4% to 3,6%, and in particular those of the euro area, from +3,9% to +2,8%. To weigh are above all the lockdowns in China due to Covid and the war in Eastern Europe, whose "economic effects are spreading like seismic waves", since Russia "is one of the major suppliers of oil, gas and metals and, together with Ukraine, of wheat and corn: the current decline in the supply of these commodities has already caused sharp price increases”.
In the update of the Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF observes that this crisis has messedor endanger the ordering of the rules who have governed international economic relations since the Second World War and complicate the work of central banks, "which already had to deal with high and persistent inflation and now have to bring inflation down, being careful not to damage economic growth".
The countries involved in the conflict will suffer the most: Russia, -8,5% and Ukraine -35%. The bill is also high for the Eurozone and in particular for Germany and Italy which are the countries most dependent on Russian gas.
Particularly the economy in the boot it should rise 2,3% this year, ie 1,5% less than the January forecast. For 2023, growth is expected at 1,7%, 0,5 percentage points less (+0,1 over October). And the slowdown in growth could continue with GDP rising by 0,5% in 2027. The budget for the USA is less heavy, from 4% to 3,7% and for China, from 4,8% to 4,4%. .
Rates go up in Germany, the spread goes down
Tensions on bonds are felt on German paper, with the ten-year rate rising to +0,91%. This favors the descent of the spread even with the 10-year BTP (+2,55% yield at today's closing). The differential stops at 163 basis points, down 1,04%.
Piazza Affari in red with coupons, but Autogrill shines
The main list of Piazza Affari is weighed down by the eight blue chips at ex-dividend which account for 1,05% on the performance of the Stock Exchange: Banca Mediolanum -5,63%, Stellantis -5,16% (which also suspended operations in Russia), Banco Bpm -4,84%, Unicredit -3,3%, Prysmian -2,22%, Campari -0,95% and Ferrari -0,58%. In contrast, Cnh, +0,14%.
Also among the weak stocks on the list general, -2,67%, embroiled in a battle for governance involving appeals to Consob and the Court. In particular, today Leone filed an "urgent complaint with Consob" concerning unfounded and defamatory statements reported in an interview with Dr. Luciano Cirinà "published in the newspaper La Stampa and in other newspapers" on April 13, 2022, which follow those "equally serious issued by Eng. Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone” to Sole 24 Ore on 25 March. The board of directors also decided to proceed "before the criminal and civil judicial authorities so that the behaviors of anyone unlawfully engaged in are sanctioned".
Between titles in dust instead there are Saipem +3,81%, Iveco +2,92%, Pirelli +1,37%, Stm +1,2% and Terna +1,18%.
However, the most brilliant performance is recorded outside the main basket: Autogrill marks an increase of 12,3% following rumors of an upcoming wedding with the Swiss group Dufry. The rumors, reported by Bloomberg, speak of a possible integration between the two companies, with Dufry buying Autogrill by paying in shares. According to initial estimates, the post-merger market value would be approximately $6,6 billion. Autogrill is controlled by Schematrentaquattro (100% owned by Edizione) with 50,1% of the share capital. The Benetton family, if the operation were to go through, would end up having 20% of the new group and would thus be the first shareholder.
