It's not a recession yet. But signs of a slowdown in the economy are also arriving from Asia today, October 3, coinciding with the beginning of the Chinese "golden week". After the heavy lessons of a "brutal" September (Bloomberg definition) the price lists will inaugurate October, traditionally the most dangerous month, with a note of caution.
The future of the index EuroStoxx50 records a decrease of 1,4%. The last session of the week closed with +1,2%.
The future of Nasdaq marks a decrease of 0,5%. On Friday, the technology stock closed down by 1,5%.
Asian stock exchanges: Tokyo rises, but the economy slows down
The first session of the fourth quarter 2022 begins in Asia Pacific with the index Nikkei Tokyo up 0,7%, theHang Seng Hong is instead down by 1%.
The bags of Seoul, di Shanghai and of Shenzen they are closed. The S&P ASX200's Sidney the BSE Sensex in Mumbai is around parity, down by 0,5%.
The indications on Japan's economic activity are disappointing, the Tankan index on the expectations of large industrial players drops this quarter to eight from nine: the consensus expected ten. The index on expectations falls to nine from ten, also in this case below the estimates.
China closed, big maneuvers in view of the congress
Beijing prepares for the Party Congress. A timid criticism of Xi Jing Pimg's work has also emerged in recent days. A veteran, Son Ping, republished an article by the president that appealed to Deng's lesson in favor of collective leadership of the party. There were no consequences: Song Ping, born in 1917, has just celebrated his 105th birthday.
They will meet during the week central banks of Australia and New Zealand: new rate hikes expected.
Brazil elections, Lula did not win. ballot at the end of October
More uncertain than expected Brazilian elections. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, the big favorite in the polls, totaled 48,35% of the vote, while his opponent, the outgoing right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro (Pl), 67, reached 43,27. 30%. He goes to the ballot next October XNUMXth. Friday the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange ended the third quarter with a gain of +15% (in Euros), which extended the year-to-date performance to +25,50%. Among the best in the world.
Under strong tension Petroleum + 2,5%. A decision to cut production by one million barrels a day to deal with falling demand is looming on Wednesday's meeting in Vienna. .
Friday will be held in Prague on informal summit of the European Council, where, among other things, the leaders of the member states will talk about the security of energy infrastructure. Meanwhile the Minister of Ecological Transition Roberto Cingolani he declared that "within 48 hours" Italy will present its proposal to the EU to reduce the price of gas.
Generali-Mediobanca: new test in Piazza Affari
After the fireworks on Friday, Mediobanca (+5,99% after a suspension at +20%) and Generali (+1,77%) will be the focus of attention: the sale of Banca will go through after several attempts Generali to Mediobanca? Will the Leone company, after the sale, target an American prey in asset management, probably Guggenheim Partners?
A first sign could come from the meeting of the trade union pact in Piazzetta Cuccia, scheduled for this afternoon. The obstacles seem almost insurmountable, starting from the declared opposition of Delfin and Caltagirone up to the modalities of a deal which involves the transfer of a significant share of Generali itself. But the market, on Friday, showed that it believes in it. Generali could finance expansion on the US market, from which it is practically absent. Mediobanca could finally land in asset management, as it has always hoped.
Italy: Moody's postpones the report card, BTPs restart from 4,5%
Moody's has postponed any changes in the rating or outlook for Italian debt until the spring. The rating remains Baa3, the outlook changed from stable to negative on 5 August on the last step before junk bonds. In the meantime, the other assessments are awaited, in which the Italian debt is however a little more distant from the area most at risk: on 21 October it will be the turn of S&P Global Ratings, on the 28th it will be the turn of Dbrs (who, however, has already underlined that «a centre-right government does not significantly alter Italy's economic fundamentals») while on November 18th it will be Fitch's turn.
Il XNUMX-year BTP opens at 4,49%. The future ended September down 6,4%. The 2,10-year Bund restarts from 6%. German 7-year futures lost XNUMX% in September, XNUMX% in the third quarter.
Pound still down, S&P confirms UK rating
little moved theeuro-dollar at 0,979. In September, the single currency lost 2,5%, 6,5% in the third quarter.
La GBP English loses 0,7%. During the weekend, S&P confirmed UK debt rating at AA, Outlook drops to negative from stable. The agency writes in the note that the state debt, due to the effect of the tax cut and the plan to increase subsidies, will continue to rise for another three years, while previously it was seen to fall starting next year.
Crédit Suisse scares City
The situation of Crédit Suisse, highly exposed on the London market, is of great concern. Over the weekend, reports that Bloomberg, the leaders of the institute were in close contact with the British authorities after the collapse of the CDS in the City,
Borsa Milano: the ratings of Moncler and Tenaris drop
- Moncler. Stifel lowers the target price to 50 euros.
- Tenaris . Mediobanca cuts the target price to 19 euros
- Monte Paschi Bank. The French insurance company Axa is considering an investment of at least 100 million euros in the capital increase of MPS without the operation leading to changes in its joint venture with the Tuscan bank, said two sources familiar with the matter.
- Enel The Russian president Vladimir Putin issued a decree authorizing Enel to sell a controlling stake in its Russian subsidiary to Lukoil LKOH.MM and the Gazprombank-Frezia investment fund.
- aedes. Domus, an investee of Hines, Apollo Asset Management and VI-BA, has signed two separate agreements for the purchase of a majority stake of 54,9% in Aedes. The closing of both transactions, for a total value of approximately 45 million euros, is expected by the end of the year.
