The anniversary deserves the exorcisms: 93 years ago the crack of Wall Street gave way to what remains the most serious crisis of capitalism. But Taurus doesn't care. The financial week starts with one note of optimism despite the prospect ofdiscounted increase in ECB rates. In the wake of Wall Street's progress over the weekend, the plus sign prevails in Asia (with the exception of China) as well as on the futures of Western stock exchanges: Eurostoxx +0,7%, Nasdaq +0,2% in the wake of the rally Friday.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange rises +0,5% amid strong shocks on the exchange rate. According to the Financial Times, the central bank burned 30 billion dollars on Friday to curb the rise of the US currency. The squares of Taiwan +0,4% and Korea +0,8% were positive, as was India.
Stock market today 24 October: Hong Kong collapses. Slowed GDP growth
Entirely different music China. After the closing of the Congress which consolidated the absolute power of Xi Jinping, the data on the GDP: +3,9% in the third quarter, or +3% in the first nine months against +5,5% expected. But the appointments to the Politburo suggest that President Xi is more interested in the stability and control of the state rather than the revival of growth: the future premier will be Li Quiang. The loyalist who led the disastrous management of the pandemic in Shanghai.
The echo of market fears is felt above all at Hong Kong – 5%. The tech sector even drops 7%. The decline of the Csi 300 in Shanghai and Shenzhen -1,7% was less heavy.
The cross dollar-yuan it is up 0,3% to 7,25, a value not seen since 2008.
ECB in action. Curb the rise in US interest rates
A start is looming under the banner of a (small) injection of optimism in Europe and the USA. It can be considered an opening of credit towards the new government in Italy or for the arrival at Downing Street of Rishi sunak who, after the resignation of Boris Johnson, is destined to become the new prime minister of the United Kingdom (euro at 0,868 against the pound, at 0,985 against the dollar). But insiders favor another track: the sensation, that is, that finally the end of the central bank tightening is approaching. For heaven's sake, the ECB is preparing for a 75-point increase which could be followed by another 50-point increase in December. But, for the first time, the Fed suggests that in 2023 there will be a turning point. This was mentioned by Mary Daly, the dove of the San Francisco Fed, and Nick Timiraos, the commentator closest to Powell, supported it in the Wall Street Journal: already in December, he writes, the increase could be 50 points (and not 75 ).
The effect on the bond market was immediate. The Treasury Notes a ten-year trades at 4,15%, from 4,25% on Friday. I have also dropped significantly real rates, to 1,63% from 1,80%. expectations oninflation I'm at 2,50%.
WTI oil down 0,5% to 84,5 dollars a barrel. Worries about a reduction in global demand and fears of supply shortages alternate without order.
European gas in the hands of ministers
European gas Friday -10% at 113 euros. It closed the eighth negative week with -19%. The EU agreement on containing the price of gas and electricity has caused another sharp drop in the price. The ball is now in the hands of the energy ministers of the respective countries, who urgently need to present the concrete decisions. Optimism seems to prevail, thanks also to confirmation of the role of Roberto Cingolani, the former minister enlisted as a consultant by the Meloni government. The drop of 123 euros confirmed at the end of the week paves the way for extensions of the descent of European gas down to around 73 euros.
Central banks, PMI indices and US GDP
It won't just be there ECB meeting in Week. In addition to the summit of Bank of Canada they will gather there Central Bank of Brazil and the Russian one, which will leave rates unchanged, as should the Bank of Japan which will meet on Friday.
On the front of the real economy, the spotlight is on today PMI manufacturing and services indices of the Eurozone. Tomorrow in Germany there will be the publication of the Ifo index, expected to fall, while in the United States we will have consumer confidence also expected to deteriorate.
Also in the US on Thursday we will have the preliminary reading of the Third quarter GDP, which should start higher after the "technical recession" of the first two quarters.
From Unicredit to Apple: time for accounts. Elon Musk on Twitter
The company news is very rich, both in Europe and in the USA. In Italy we start this morning with the Unicredit quarterly to continue with the group Eni, Mediobanca and not only.
To follow in Europe the accounts of Philips.
In the USA they are staged in the accounts of the Big names in the list: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft. But there are two other appointments to follow: theMobileye IPO, the Intel-controlled jewel of autonomous driving. Above all, there is waiting for the entrance of Elon Musk on Twitter, which will take place before October 28 to avoid the ax of the Delaware judge on the Tesla tycoom.
In Piazza Affari: Generali sets course for the Guggenheim
- Generali allegedly launched a thorough analysis of the management company, Guggenheim, reports Reuters. The Italian insurance company could submit a lateroffer of about 4 billion dollars, equal to 2% of assets under management: the sector runs at around 1,3 times the assets.
- Industrial Driver's License Goldman Sachs cuts rating to Neutral.
- Banco BPM. Barclays cuts the target price to 3,70 euros.
- Unicredit. Barclays raises the target price to 12,5 euros.
- Monte dei Paschi. A first meeting between the trade unions and the CEO Luigi Lovaglio is on the agenda today after 4.125 requests for early retirement were received from bank employees, therefore exceeding the 3.500 departures budgeted for in the plan and intended to be financed with 800 million of the 2.5 billion to be raised with the capital increase.
- B for Bank. Malacalza Investimenti, a former major shareholder of Carige, has asked for the Ligurian bank, now controlled by Bper Banca, to be ordered to pay approximately 539 million euros as compensation for the damage suffered as a result of the resolution to increase the capital in the extraordinary shareholders' meeting of the bank on 20 September 2019. Carige and Bper consider the request absolutely unfounded.
