“How to explain what happened? Mystery". Even the Wall Street Journal struggles to explain the change of course of the Stock Exchanges which, after a thrilling opening, reversed the march reaching record closures. Yet, the very negative data on theUS inflation justify the next robust rate hike, 75 points at least. “The reality is that in the short term this market had nothing left to give downwards - he comments Joseph Sersale of Anthilia. Thanks to the Fed's hammering, the news was in prices, and the market was extremely short and pessimistic. Once the flows of algo-traders were exhausted, the cover-ups started”. In short, sooner or later inflation will begin to slow down as a result of interest rate interventions and someone has begun to look ahead. Only today, however, with the quarterly of big banks, you will understand if the music has already changed.
Piazza Affari also rebounds, the economy slows down
Europe followed the US script as usual: the markets, which started a new gloomy session in the wake of disappointing macro data, changed pace after the news of the American rebound.
Business Square +1,56% was the best in Europe thanks to the good performance of industrials, and financials. Increases of more than 1% also for Frankfurt, Paris e Madrid.
In dark gray the forecasts. The Bank of Italy has reviewed down the estimates for the economy which now, in the baseline scenario, see GDP growth of 3,3% this year, 0,3 in 2023 and 1,4 in 2024.
In September, German inflation reached a 70-year high, recording an increase of 1,9% compared to the previous month and 10% on an annual basis.
In London, the government backtracks
The United Kingdom makes its own story. Today will close the cycle of extraordinary purchases of the Bank of England of Treasury securities held by pension funds. But the recovery of the pound is linked to the news that Prime Minister Liz Truss is about to change the debt-based mini-finance that has thrown the system into crisis.
The euro recovers, the Btp yield 4,72%
Change of course also for theeuro, recovering to 0,9776 on dollar after a disastrous start, and the pound in strong recovery.
It goes down in the final, albeit slightly, too spread to 243 basis points (-1,35%), as well as yields: +4,72% for the Italian stock and +2,29% for the German stock.
Eurostoxx futures +1,7% anticipate a rocket launch for European lists in the wake of the record ending of the US stock exchanges, coming off the best session since November 2020 of Dow Jones +2,83% from the initial -2%. Also in full recoveryS & P 500 +2,6 and the Nasdaq Composite + 2%.
The S&P500 future climbed 0,5% this morning.
JP Morgan lengthens the pace before the accounts
The best stock of the Dow Jones, with a gain of 5,5%, was JP Morgan, which today at around 12 (Italian time) presents the data for the third quarter. Two other big names in Wall Street finance release the quarterly, Morgan Stanley e Citigroup. The increase in interest rates should have favored the banks which, moreover, may have significantly increased their prudential provisions.
Consumer prices in the United States continue to rise: against a slight drop to 8,2% in the general index, there is an increase in the core figure to 6,6%. As a result, rates could rise to 4,75/5% in the spring.
Il Ten-Year Treasury Notes trades this morning at 3,93%, from 3,91% at the close, after a peak of 4,04%.
The Nikkei runs, but the yen's landslide continues.
Euphoric end of the week also in Asia
Il Nikkei Tokyo is up 3,5%, the week ends with a drop of 0,5%, but in dollars, due to the strong devaluation of the yen, the weekly performance is heavier, -2%.
bounce theHang Seng of Hong Kong +3,3%, -4,5% per week. CSI300 of Shanghai and Shenzen price lists +2%, +0,5% per week. Kospi of Seoul +2,5%, -1% per week. Taipei Stock Exchange + 2,6%.
Tsmc flies, pardoned by US bans on chips
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, goes up by 5%. The consumer electronics assembly giant, one of Apple's key suppliers, released its quarterly figures. Net income expressed in Taiwan dollars almost doubled year on year to 281 billion, better than the expectations of analysts who particularly appreciated the US exemption (for one year) from restrictions on chips to be used in Chinese factories .
On the eve of Party Congress China confirms that inflation is under control. In September, consumer prices rose by 2,8%, against 2,5% in August, in line with analysts' expectations
Gas at 153, seventh week down
Petroleum WTI at 89 dollars a barrel, Brent at 94,20. In yesterday's session it rose by 2%. The provisional weekly budget shows a loss of -3,4%. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United States continue to clash over OPEC+'s decision last week to cut its oil production target by 2 million bpd.
Il gas European Union yesterday lost -4% closing at 153 euros per mWh. We are heading towards the seventh week of consecutive decline waiting to understand what the EU will do to limit the surge in prices.
In Piazza Affari: creepy Mps, Stm runs waiting for Apple
stellantis. Berenberg lowers the target price.
stm. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, one of Apple's key suppliers, released quarterly data. Net income expressed in Taiwan dollars nearly doubled year-on-year to $281 billion, better than analysts' expectations.
Soul Holding announced yesterday evening that he will participate in thecapital increase of Monte Paschi with a maximum investment of 25 million euros.
Mount Paschi it closed down more than 33% after the bank had announced the terms of the 2,5 billion euro capital increase in the early morning, which has obtained full guarantees and will start on 17 October. The French Axa has undertaken to contribute up to 200 million euros to the capital increase.
Fiera Milano has signed non-binding agreements with the private shareholders of Fiere di Parma for a partnership aimed at creating a common European exhibition platform in the agro-food sector.
