La list landslide it slows down but hasn't stopped yet. TO Tokyo the Nikkei index closed with a drop of 2,2%. It gets even worse Hong Kong (-5%), headquarters of HSBC which yesterday took over (for one pound) the English branch of Silicon Valley Bank. Down too Alone (-2,2%).
I US market futures instead they signal a positive start, in the wake of yesterday's closing. The future of the index S & P500 is up 0,5%, the index closed slightly lower yesterday. The Nasdaq instead it went up slightly. In yesterday's Wall Street session, stocks fell regional banks, but shares of companies most sensitive to interest rate movements rose. L'Real Estate sector index it gained 1,6%.
More cautious i European lists which, paradoxically, paid a higher price than Wall Street for the crisis of the medium-sized US banks. L'EuroStoxx50 index it lost 2,7%. Milano -4% on March 13, attempting a timid rebound at the opening. Just yesterday a positive signal arrived for Italy: Fitch Ratings it revised upwards its estimates of Italian growth in 2023 thanks to the partial improvement in the situation on energy prices and growth prospects in the Eurozone and globally. In a report released today, the rating agency indicated a growth of +0,5% for the current year compared to the -0,1% contraction in December.
The Euro runs, strong recovery of the price of the bund and btp
At first glance, the market reaction appears disproportionate, given that the risk of contagion for global finance seems very modest. But the American crisis, judging by the performance of the currency and bond market, seems to herald a change in monetary policy:
Leuro dollar it moves to a four-week high around 1.07. The yen rises. The cross loses 1,4%.
Strong recovery ofgovernment bond prices on all timescales. The Ten-Year Treasury Notes this morning it settled at 3,57%, after three sessions of strong increases. Strong progress also on the short end of the curve in view of a less aggressive approach by central bankers. Yesterday's session, for the two-year government bond (4,13%), was the session with the largest daily drop in yield since 1987. The interest rate curve stiffens again, the differential between ten years and two years it drops to -60 basis points, from -40 basis points the day before.
Waist ten-year to 2,26%. THEthe ten-year BTP starts again from 4,17%, yesterday the price rose (+1%) for the sixth time in the last seven sessions.
Bitcoin +12% to 24.110 dollars. The bailout of regional banks is seen as a great gift to the crypto world.
Bini Smaghi: "The ECB is flexible on rates"
In two days there ECB it should adjust the cost of money up by half a point and not renew the securities in its portfolio for 15 billion a month. It is probable that the bankers in Frankfurt will decide to carry on, more worried about inflation than signs of recession. But Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a former member of the board of the ECB, recommends another approach: "Contagion on the markets - he says in an interview - in itself creates a restriction of monetary conditions with recessive effects on the real economy because operators move towards safe and sell those at risk: exactly what you aim for by raising rates. It would be a mistake if the ECB did not take this into account".
Nomura calls on the Fed to cut borrowing costs by a quarter of a point
Next week too Fed according to forecasts, it should have increased the cost of money. The Silicon Valley Bank meltdown has reshuffled the cards. After Goldman Sachs also Barclays he expects US rates to remain unchanged for now. The experts of Nomura they go so far as to recommend a quarter point cut. This is the effect of a sudden bloodletting.
In two days, the financial markets burned 465 billion dollars. It cost so much the crack of the Svb and a few other medium-sized US lenders despite the prompt intervention of the authorities and the reassurances from President Biden which allowed Wall Street to limit the damage to the banking sector alone. It was yesterday that paid the highest price Business Square -4%, the most bank-centric price list. But the palm of the worst title belongs to the German Commerzbank -12,3%, followed by Swiss credit -9,7% like the Italian one Bper, of bpm need Unicredit below 9%.
Moody's: only temporary devaluations in Europe
It is unlikely that European banks find themselves forced to liquidate their bond portfolios at a loss as did the US Silicon Valley Bank. She said it Moody's Investors Service, adding that the writedowns of bond portfolios linked to the increase in market rates are "temporary and moderate" for most of the large European banks. “Smaller, deposit-funded banks can count on the stability of their loyal depositor base, which ensures that they can wait for a recovery in bond values without incurring materially higher funding costs,” the commentary reads. rating agency.
Xi and Biden talk to each other again
The bank emergency does not distract attention from other dossiers. Tonight, speaking to the press on the sidelines of a meeting with the heads of state of Australia and the United Kingdom, Joe Biden he said he will be speaking on the phone with shortly Xi Jinping. The president of China, according to the Wall Street Journal, he should have a virtual meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart in the coming days, probably after the visit to Moscow scheduled for next week. It is the first face-to-face between the two leaders since the war broke out.
Electric car all the way back
Yesterday the representatives of the countries most skeptical about the obligation of the electric car from 2035 reiterated their opposition. The commissioner Thierry Breton advised producers to wait before launching future programs. It is scheduled today the Volkswagen assembly.
Generals, accounts records. Tod's returns to profit
The leading Italian insurance company (+2,25%) closes 2022 with an operating result exceeding analysts' expectations. Better than expected, by a few cents, the proposed dividend. Leo posted an all-time high operating profit, up 11% year-on-year to $6,51 billion, better than expectations. The Life operating result rose by 25% to 3,52 billion, the Non-Life operating result grew by 1,7% to 2,70 billion, while that of Asset & Wealth Management decreased by 9,6%, to 972 million. The board has proposed a dividend per share of 1,16 euros, up on the 1,07 distributed last year. Generali confirms an extremely solid capital position, with the Solvency ratio at 221% from 227% at the end of 2021. During the year, the evolution of the Solvency ratio was supported by the strong contribution of normalized capital generation and by positive variances economic, which only partially offset the impacts deriving from regulatory changes, M&A operations and capital movements. The company confirmed all the objectives of the "Lifetime Partner 24: Driving Growth" strategic plan.
Tod’s closed 2002 with a net profit of 23,1 million euros which compares with a loss of 5,9 million in 2021 after revenues, already announced at the end of January, which exceeded one billion euros, up by about 14 % compared to 2021. The operating result is positive for 58,2 million in 2022, a value more than double that of 2021. Commenting on the results, the chairman and CEO, Diego Della Valle, underlined that "considering the excellent start of the season in our stores and the solidity of the order book for next season, we are very confident about the group's future results, even in an international context that remains uncertain and unpredictable".
Width: HSBC raises judgment to Buy.
