“Being bored is beautiful,” a Wall Street broker confides to Reuters, commenting on the sixth consecutive rise in the S&P 500 index. But there are some obstacles looming today's profitable routine, first of all the data on new jobs: if the figure greatly exceeds 700 units, inflation anxiety will prevail again. An alarm signal, however, arrives this morning from China.
The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock markets lost 2,5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is 1,5%. Such a violent decline, after a phase marked by uncertainty, has not been seen for four months.
The drop is linked to Xi Jingping's harsh speech on the occasion of the centenary of the party: "Anyone who tries to influence China - he said - will have to deal with the steel wall of 1,4 billion Chinese". Ergo, no opening to the US: tensions are increasing.
The other Asian lists showed slight progress, starting with the Tokyo Nikkei (+1%). Expectations for this afternoon's US data prevail everywhere.
Last night the main Wall Street indices closed in positive territory: Dow Jones +0,38%, S&P 500 +0,52%. The Nasdaq (+0,13%) was less vigorous, held back by sales on technology.
Didi's leap (+16%) on the second day of listing in the US by Uber's Chinese rival should be noted.
Chip permitting, car sales pick up speed: General Motors announces a 40% increase in SUV purchases.
Experts expect 710 new jobs in June, up from 560 in May. Unemployment is expected to fall to 5,5%, from 5,8%. The average salary should register an increase of 3,6% year on year, strongly accelerating from the +2% of the previous month. Morgan Stanley chief economist Charles White wrote yesterday that new nonfarm payrolls are expected to slightly exceed 600, more or less May's level. People should return to work en masse in September, the month of the (probable) reopening of schools and the end of state super subsidies
THE EMIRATES BLOW UP THE OPEC+ DEAL
The other hot topic concerns oil, which jumped above 75 dollars in the WTI version, to 76,22 for Brent, the highest since October 2018. Suddenly yesterday evening the United Arab Emirates decided to block the agreement on the small increase in production painstakingly achieved within OPEC +. The emirates have asked for a particular regime, which would in fact allow them to almost double their daily production: +700.000 barrels per day instead of the 400.000 agreed for all the others. The agreement promoted by Saudi Arabia and Russia would have provided for the maintenance of a regime of strong control over production until the end of 2022, eight months longer than what had been foreseen in the historic Vienna agreement of April 2020.
TAX: MULTINATIONALS WILL PAY AT LEAST 15%
Historical agreement on taxation. There global minimum tax proposed by the United States, after the agreement reached at the G7, obtained the go-ahead from 130 countries during a virtual meeting of the OECD. China and India also approve the measure created to combat tax avoidance. The project requires companies to pay a 15% tax rate on profits in each country in which they operate. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hailed the deal as "an historic moment for economic diplomacy". The agreement "would radically change the current architecture of international taxation," said Italian Economy Minister Daniele Franco.
PMI INDEXES GIVE EUROPE A CHARM
The second semester of the European stock exchanges starts on the right foot. Oil purchases, the go-ahead for bank dividend distribution and the rebound in the tourism sector framed the good data on manufacturing activity. In Italy the index is confirmed close to record levels (62,2 from 62,3 in May), in Spain it reaches a 23-year high of 60,4. In Germany the indicator rises to 65,1. The eurozone as a whole rose for the fourth consecutive month to an all-time record, 63,4, from 63,1 in May.
Enough for the chief economist of Ihs Markit, Chris Williamson to raise the hypothesis of the inflation risk: “The acceleration of demand – he says – has created imbalances in the market, exacerbated by slowdowns in transport and capacity limits. As a result, secondary prices have shot up to levels never seen before”. This fear, reinforced by Jens Weidman's warning (“the ECB cannot tolerate a price increase”, he said yesterday) and combined with the growth of the Delta variant, justifies the mid-day slowdown, when the index fell below the equal before the recovery in the final. After all, Mario Draghi remotely replied to the German central banker: "There is still a lot of room for an expansive policy".
BUSINESS CENTER +0,73%: EQUITA IS BUY
Piazza Affari appreciated by 0,73%, to 25.286 points. Equita expects, after a phase of consolidation, a new acceleration led by stocks benefiting from higher growth with higher inflation. The list includes Tenaris, Cnh Industrial, the banks and companies most favored by the Pnrr (digital, ecological transition, infrastructure) i.e. Sesa, Acea, Iren, Buzzi, Inwit.
Frankfurt (+0,48%), Paris (+0,71%) and Amsterdam (+0,25%) are on the same wavelength, while London (+1,28%) and Madrid (+1,23) are more tonic ,XNUMX%).
TOURISM BOUNCES, CONSUMPTION GOES UP
Tourism-related stocks rebound after four consecutive sessions down on fears of new restrictions after the peak of Covid-19 infections in the UK and Asia.
Easyjet, Ryanair and Iag – the holding company of British Airways and Iberia, IAG, parent company of British Airways – earn between 2% and 4%.
In Paris, Renault (+4,5%; the shortage of chips is about to end according to the Régie) and Sodexo (+3%), a multinational catering company that anticipates a strong recovery in turnover in the quarter.
Associated British Foods gained 4,8% after announcing stronger-than-expected sales of Primark clothing stores across all markets.
SPREAD TOWARDS 100. DRAGONS: THE DEBT WILL RISE AGAIN
The spread between the Italian and German 103-year bonds fell to 0,8 basis points in the final stages. The rate of the BTP falls to +XNUMX%.
The new slight rise in Treasury yields weighs on the Bund, contained by expectations of the new repurchase operation by the Federal Reserve on the long end of the curve.
On the contrary, BTPs benefited from the climate of lower risk aversion, although caution prevails on the market on the eve of the US monthly employment data for June.
Last month, the share of eurozone government bonds with a yield below zero increased by two percentage points.
Out of a total at the end of June of just over 9.000 billion euros, 61% of securities have a negative rate compared to 59% at the end of May.
Prime Minister Mario Draghi, speaking at the Accademia dei Lincei, defined a further phase of debt growth, both public and private, as "very probable", saying he was ready to intervene "with conviction" in the event of a worsening of the pandemic such as cause damage to the country's economy.
DEL VECCHIO RISES TO 19% OF MEDIOBANCA. GENERALS IN THE VIEWFINDER
The owner of EssilorLuxottica, not satisfied with the conquest of Grand Vision, accelerates in banking risk. Ten months after the ECB's authorization to take Mediobanca (up to 20,5%), Leonardo Del Vecchio increases his stake to almost one-fifth of the capital of the leading Italian investment bank.
Through the financial company Delfin, the founder of Luxottica announced that he had acquired 31 million shares, equal to 3,5% of the capital of Piazzetta Cuccia, thus coming close to 19% of the capital. With this weight on the upper floors of Mediobanca, which has always reigned and acted as guarantor over Generali insurance companies, Del Vecchio - who is also a historical shareholder of Trieste with 4,8% - is preparing to have his influence exercised on the renewal of the the group's board, which will expire next spring, with the approval of the 2021 financial statements. For the first time in the history of the winged Lion company, the management led by Philippe Donnet will present its own list for the renewal of the board. But Del Vecchio is not the type of entrepreneur who likes to ask or get in the way. Of course, being the first shareholder of Mediobanca and the third of Generali, he trusts that in order to lead the next three years of the insurance giant he will be presented with a list of standing and those with names and skills such as to not need to object.
OIL AND BANKS GIVE THE CHARGES TO MILAN
The upward push in oil prices pending a decision by OPEC + (postponed until today due to the disagreements between producers) and the recovery of bank stocks, after the ECB's green light for dividends, characterized the first session of July .
The European Stoxx Oil & Gas index is the best performer with a gain of 2,40%, which compares with the almost flat performance of the global Stoxx, +0,3%. Eni grew by 1,95%, less than Saipem (+2,06%) and better than Tenaris (+1,68%). The best title of Piazza Affari in the first half.
YES OF THE ECB TO CREDIT DIVIDENDS
The FTSE index of Italian banks starts strong in the first session of the second half, after closing the first with a gain of 25%, among the best performers at sector level. The Eurozone is also preparing to reintroduce dividends and bank buybacks after September. This was announced by the head of ECB Banking Supervision, Andrea Enria, reiterating Christine Lagarde's advances.
“But we expect – added Enria – that the distribution plans are prudent and commensurate with the banks' internal capital generation capacity and the potential impact of a deterioration in the quality of exposures, even in adverse scenarios”.
Leading the race is Unicredit (+2,51%), ahead of Banco Bpm (+1,73%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (+1,12%). In assets under management, Poste Italiane shines (+1,08%). The black jersey on Thursday goes to Unipol (-1,98%), which returns after Wednesday's rally.
AXIS IN CYBERSECURITY BETWEEN LEONARDO AND TINEXTA
In evidence Leonardo (+2,2%), who signed an agreement with Tinexta (+0,49%) to collaborate on projects in the Industry 4.0 area and for the data security of the country's production system. Banca Akros confirmed the buy rating on the stock with a target price of 9,25 euros.
The healthcare sector was weak, especially Diasorin (-1,19%) and Amplifon (-0,65%). Going against the trend Recordati (+0,77%). Utilities tend to be negative.
DANIELI +4,7% WILL CHECK UP MARCEGAGLIA
Danieli in the spotlight (+4,7%): Equita (rating buy, target 23,7 euros) reported that the steel group Marcegaglia has signed a new contract with the Friuli-based company for the technological upgrading of the Gazoldo rolling mill in the Hippolytes in Italy.
JUVENTUS +0,48%: LIKE THE POST-COVID INCREASE
Juventus closes on positive ground (+0,48%) after a classic counter-attack started with the group's press conference. Yesterday, the BoD examined the impacts deriving from the continuation of the Covid-19 pandemic and the main economic-financial data updating the Development Plan for the 2019/2024 financial years approved in September 2019, before the start of the spread of the pandemic, and defined the guidelines for a capital strengthening through a capital increase up to a maximum of 400 million euro.
AIM, SOSTRAVEL AND eVISO RUN
Worth mentioning is Sostravel.com (+6,6%). The company offers air passengers access to an integrated digital platform aimed at guaranteeing the possibility of using a series of travel-related information and services. SosTravel.com was born as a business branch contribution by the parent company Safe Bag, a company already listed on Aim Italia since 2013.
Sull'Aim money on eVISO (+5,28%) after the company finalized the acquisition of a further 20% stake in the share capital of Gd System, a company active in software development and advanced system maintenance.
