In Piazza Affari it's takeover fever. Since the beginning of the year, seven companies listed on the Milan Stock Exchange have been the subject of a takeover bid, more than one a month. From 14 June, the day on which the subscription period for the tender offer promoted by CircularBidCo on Sicit will start, they will become eight. Compared to 2020, when there were 12 offers for a value of 1 billion (excluding the transactions on Ima, Nova Re and Techedge which ended in January 2021), the acceleration is clear.
To unleash what the Corriere della Sera defines "the hunting season” are not only the records set by the international stock exchanges in recent weeks, with the Ftse Mib at its highest level since 2008, but also a return of thespeculative appeal after the difficult year experienced due to the Covid-19 pandemic. THE low interest rates, that make this type of operation convenient, e the high float of many companies have done the rest. But that may not be the end of it, according to the Courier, which lists a group of stocks of Piazza Affari interested in possible operations of an extraordinary nature on the capital.
THE LATEST TENDER OFFERS
Only in the last week have three takeover bids been promoted on as many companies in the Stock Exchange. Without a doubt, the totalitarian takeover bid launched on May 31 by Generali on Cattolica Assicurazioni. The offer concerns 66,67% of the share capital with voting rights or at least 50% plus 1 share of the share capital with voting rights. In recent months, the Leone company had already purchased 24% of Cattolica, subscribing to a capital increase and becoming the first shareholder. The established price amounts to 6,75 euro per share, a figure which incorporates a premium of 15,3% with respect to the closing price of Cattolica shares on May 28th and of 40,5% with respect to the average of the last 6 months. According to calculations, the maximum outlay for Generali should be 1,176 billion.
A few hours after the takeover bid of Generals on Cattolica, the Spanish fund Asterion, through Marbles, promoted aoffer on the entire share capital of Retelit, excluding the 28,748% already held by Marbles through the subsidiary Fiber 4.0. The objective is therefore to reach 100% of Retelit's share capital and the consequent delisting of the shares from the Italian Stock Exchange. The established price is equal to 2,85 euro per share, with a premium of 10,7% compared to the official price per share as at 28 May and a premium of 30,3% compared to the average of the previous twelve months. The maximum value is 333,6 million euros. The takeover bid is subject to the so-called "golden power" condition. The last word will therefore be up to the Government.
The last offer in chronological order is the one of 15,45 euros per share promoted by CircularBidCo on Sicit, a company active in the transformation of tanning industry residues into biostimulants for agriculture. The subscription period will start on June 14th and end, unless extended, on July 7th, with the fee payment date scheduled for July 14th. Consob approved the offer document on 4 June. The offer incorporates a premium of 17,9% in 6 months and 25,8% in 12 months. The consideration expresses an implicit valuation equal to 14 times the ratio between the value of the company and the adjusted EBITDA for 2020.
THE OFFERS OF THE LAST MONTHS
Intesa Sanpaolo inaugurated the season of takeover bids, but above all of banking risk, which after the offer launched in 2020, this year increased the value of the initial takeover bid on Ubi Banca by 57 cents per share, managing to bring the operation at home. On June 4th, however, it ended with the delisting the takeover bid of 12,2 euros per share (they were 10,5 at the beginning) of Credit Agricole Italia on Credito Valtellinese. On June 18, the company's shareholders' meeting will meet to elect the new board of directors, while the merger is expected by 2022. The list of operations that have already started also includes the 28 euro takeover bid (it was 26,5) of Naf on Astm and the offer of 2,55 euros promoted by Fly on Carraro. The membership period, which began on 17 May 2021, ends on 8 June 2021.
THE NEXT MOVES
All eyes are on what could happen in the coming months. At the center of attention is banking risk. Three special observers: UniCredit, Banco Bpm and Bper Banca. The first could take the lion's share, whose destiny – even if the new CEO has not yet revealed his plans – could soon intertwine with that of the Monte dei Paschi in order to "make the bank bigger but also less attractive to potential buyers due to the costs of the restructuring", underlines the Courier. The Mps operation, which will depend a lot on the dowry that the Treasury will offer the buyer, could also bring news for Anima. Andrea Scauri, Lemanik's Italian equity manager, explained to Milano Finanza that Anima “It's the perfect prey within bank consolidation. If Unicredit takes over Mps or a part of it, a very long distribution agreement between Siena and Anima will be in the portfolio, expiring in 2030 ". At the same time, however, “Unicredit has a much shorter agreement with Amundi. Among the hypotheses that the market is analyzing is that the French, who would risk losing distribution with the Milanese bank, launch a takeover bid for Anima to keep their presence stable in Italy”. Not only that: "In an alternative scenario, Anima itself could become the new pole of managed savings, in the event Unicredit then moves to Banco Bpm", adds the manager of Lemanik.
Different options on the table for too Bpm bank, which according to the forecasts of the via Solferino newspaper could be the subject of a "hostile" offer similar to that of Intesa on Ubi but could also enter into final negotiations with Bper or look to Unicredit.
Interesting prospects also for fashion, with Moncler which could move on the market to grow but also to resist the offers of larger operators. Also to watch Ferragamocurrently engaged in a difficult restructuring plan. After the 6 trillion maxi plan launched in the US, news could also come for Cnh Industrial. They follow Nexi and Leonardo. To promote the takeover bids, both institutional investors and other listed companies.
