At the end of the morning, a handful of points separated the main index of Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib, from the record of the year: 26.630 points against 26.680 points. Once this threshold has been crossed, Piazza Affari will be able to break another taboo, marching towards the numbers of 2008, before the series of crises from Lehman Brothers to Covid passing through the Greek drama, which marked the twenty years lost by the Italian stock market.
This is the historical framework of a passage that seems normal but is not. The stock market, without tearing, seems to be on course to close for the seventh time in a row in positive territory. Meanwhile, the yield of Ten-year BTP goes back above the percentage point in line with what happens in the USA and in Frankfurt. But the rebound, once feared, is now considered a good news: partly because the demand for capital accompanies the recovery of the economy, more lively than expected, partly because the recovery in prices is a boon for the banks, insurance companies and for Poste Italiane, i.e. the large public debt deposits behind, of course, the ECB which withdrew most of the current year's issues.
It is in this framework that Treasury Minister Daniele Franco expects the verdict of Standard & Poor's on the Italian rating. Only a few years ago a high-voltage appointment, today a possible occasion to celebrate the revival of interest in the Bel Paese. Even in August the turnover of Italian industry increased by +0.8% month on month, an increase recorded both on the foreign and domestic markets. On average for the June-August quarter, the index grew by +4,5% compared to the previous three months. In comparison year on year the growth is +13.8% (domestic market +13.0% and foreign market +15.2%).
The positive trend in business turnover was also confirmed in August, with the foreign component showing a more lively trend than the domestic one.
All major groupings of industries show strong trend increases, thanks to the favorable comparison with the particularly low levels recorded last year: Energy +30.0%, Intermediate Goods +22.3%, Instrumental Goods +2.5% and Consumer Goods +2.5%.
Between the sectors of economic activity, metallurgy (+31.4%), petroleum and refined products (+31.0%), chemistry (+30.2%), means of transport (+26.7%) stand out. Down. Instead, the textile-clothing industry (-2.5%).
On Friday next week, October 29, ISTAT will publish the preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2021. The consensus expects growth of +3.0% year on year. For the whole of 2021, expectations stand at +6.0%, in line with the Government forecast (NADEF). Since the beginning of the year, the performance of the FTSEMIB has fluctuated around +19,70%, better than the European Stoxx 600 (+17,50%).
There is no bubble air, however, around these numbers that attest to the made in Italy recovery. Partly because prices are in line with the fundamentals (an average price/earnings ratio of 16,8 times for the current year, a 3,40% dividend yield), partly because, finally, investors are they are realizing the growth potential of a hitherto inadequate price list, which today is worth about 40% of the Italian GDP but which only minimally represents the reality of the "fourth capitalism", the spearhead of our recovery. So hopefully, after the next debut of Intercos, the world leader in cosmetics from Agrate Brianza, they arrive other freshmen with a size worthy of attracting the attention of the markets.
Everything OK? We know that, as stated by Philips' law, if something can go wrong sooner or later it will. But, having avoided the Evergrande emergency for now, and counting on the state of grace on Wall Street where the FANG Plus Index, which brings together the ten big tech companies, went Thursday to the new historic record of 7.663 points, with Netflix's record and Tesla's near-record, the occasion seems really propitious. Only we, with some improvident initiative, can spoil the picture.
