The Mediobanca rally continues in Piazza Affari. Even today the title banking gains shortly after 10,30 2,4% a 7,46 euro, after +3,8% on the eve, in a banking sector in general in great shape thanks also to the continuous easing of the spread, which today trades below 180 basis points (yield at 3,4%).
As well as the momentary relief for the situation in Ukraine, which has given breathing space to stock exchanges and banks, the shares of Piazzetta Cuccia are also rewarded by a report by Fidentis, which reiterates the buy judgment on the stock, raising the valuation from 7,19 at €8,3-8,4: “despite the recent outperformance, we believe that Mediobanca represents the safest way to bet on the Italian banking sector, without facing the risk associated with the large expansion of multiples in the last six months”. In particular, the experts explain how the group will be able to benefit from the capital increase operations being studied by the other Italian banks, operations that according to analysts Piazzetta Cuccia is actually handling.
The investment bank, referring to the press reconstructions, speaks for Mps, Banco Popolare, Carige, Bpm, Veneto Banca, Popolare di Vicenza, Creval, Popolare di Sondrio, of total transactions for 8 billion euros, a figure that for Mediobanca, which "is about to play an important role in most of these capital increases", could involve fees of 36 million euros in the second half - calculating, according to so-called "conservative" estimates, a fee of 3% on a percentage of 30% assuming that 70% goes to the consortium -, equal to a 21% growth in wholesale fees, which translate into a 3-5% increase in the bottom line of the income statement (depending on the tax rate used).
This does not imply an upgrade of the estimates, explains Fidentis, but "together with the continuous reduction of the equity portfolio, it could help to give greater visibility to Mediobanca's core business, which is what we believe has potential for growth".
