The 20 billion under the tree for the banking system are not enough today to keep the Ftse Mib (-0,49%) in positive territory. They provide a ballast for the price list Mediaset, which sinks by 12,4%, and Mps -7,48%.
As for the Milanese group there are two hot explanations: in part there are those who went to the collection, after the growth peaks of the share in recent days; in part the fear is beginning to spread that the expected war between Bollorè and Berlusconi, for control, will not take place or at least will not be fought with a takeover bid and against a takeover bid. In the afternoon, the top management of the Biscione went to Consob to illustrate their point of view on the matter and those of Vivendi will do the same tomorrow. This increase in contacts between Consob, Vivendi and Fininvest, according to a trader interviewed by Reuters, could be the starter of an agreement between the parties and reduce the speculative appeal. According to the CFO of Mediaset Marco Giordani, however, there would have been no new contacts between the two challengers.
The bankers went today in no particular order. Mps is the worst, as was perhaps inevitable, on the day when hopes of saving the bank were lost with a capital increase supported by private investors. In these hours the government decree should take effect, but the transitions to plan B will not be painless. In the so-called burden sharing, according to a very clear scheme by Ansa, the shareholders could lose part or even all of their value; subordinated bondholders should be forced to convert their bonds into equity; senior bondholders should be safe from risk and so should account holders. The alternative, however, would be the ball-in, by far the worst, because it would also put these two categories at risk (only current account holders over 100 thousand euros). The Popolari are positive, apart from Ubi which marks a drop of 0,78%.
Among non-performing securities, Fiat, which falls by 3,04%. Down Telecom, -2,26%, whose performance remains to a certain extent linked to that of Mediaset. Saipem +2,69% and Unipol +2,44% shine. Day in different colors for the other European price lists: Madrid -0,52%; Frankfurt -0,11%. Of opposite sign London, +0,32% and in parity Paris (+0,02%). Departure in slow motion for Wall Street (fractional decreases for the three main stock exchanges in the middle of the day), where trading thins out in the pre-Christmas climate.
Euro recovering against the dollar to 1,045, +0,21%. From the Bulletin of the ECB we finally learn that the economic recovery in the euro area "continues" and will continue “at a moderate but consolidating pace” and is a recovery in inflation above 1% “at the turn of the year” thanks to higher oil prices and further acceleration in 2018 and 2019. The Bank The European Central Bank reiterates that it will continue with debt purchases at a rate of 80 billion euros a month until March, and then at a rate of 60 billion a month “until the end of December 2017 or even beyond if necessary. If, in the meantime, prospects become less favourable, or if financial conditions prove inconsistent with further progress towards a lasting adjustment in the inflation profile, the Council intends to increase the program in terms of size or duration”. XNUMX-year Italian-German bund spread: +1,41%, 158.70 points; yield 1,85%.
