“Italy, if not now when?”. To sound the charge for Piazza Affari is none other than Equita, the broker most present on the Italian list, witness to all the false starts that have characterized the last decades of the Italian market, nailed like the economy to the values of the last millennium by the longest crisis for more than a century. But now, thanks to the arrival of EU funds and the load of anti-Covid -19 vaccines, the wind of recovery blowing from the United States it could matter in our parts the reflation trade, i.e. higher growth coupled with “structurally higher inflation that can continue to drive equity markets”.
Perhaps it is worth spilling the pills of traditional wisdom sown by Wall Street: this time no "sell", if anything it is the case of "buy in may" to catch in time the advice that comes from overseas. Encouragement comes from the manufacturing index, which rose this morning to 60,7 from 59,8, testifying that the recovery, albeit moderate, continues and gratifying the accounts of our main companies with some happy surprises, which boast on average lower prices than their competitors Europeans and the USA.
Resta the unknown public debt, given the upward tension of the Btp with a spread that exceeded 111 points. But for the technicians the phenomenon is linked to the aggressive policy of the Treasury which has accelerated placements to anticipate the probable generalized rise in yields expected in the face of the increase in requests from the US Treasury.
La prudence, in short, remains a must given the many frailties of our country, but it is not long before we have the opportunity to verify in the field the consistency of the optimism that peeps out even among generally cautious observers. The first test bed will be the accounts of the Big Three which alone are worth almost a third of the capitalization of the Italian market: Enel, Intesa and Stellantis.
On May 5, in particular, it will be the turn of Understanding (+0,47% to 2,33 euros) which will pave the way for the other quarterly reports in the sector (on the 6th they will give the accounts Unicredit and Banca Bpm). While waiting for the numbers, the market lives a season of grace: the FTSE index of Italian banks opens the week with an increase of 1% and moves just one step away from the highs of the last thirteen months. It is the seventh consecutive rise, supported among other things by the rise in market yields. The most negative note comes from the Bank of Italy which in its report on financial stability underlines that the main risk derives from the worsening of the quality of the assets, which could generate credit losses of approximately 2021 billion euros in the two-year period 2022-9. But this morning the vice president of the ECB De Guindos notes that the fears of a few months ago have subsided.
The operators, waiting for the institution led by Carlo Messina to deliver i rich dividends already foreseen, are looking at the next moves of the country's leading bank, with a 21% market share. The CEO has already anticipated that he does not see possible new moves on the domestic market, so he is looking at operations that can strengthen the institution's grip on the managed and policy market as well as moves on the European front.
But there is no need to rest on our laurels: Mario Orcel, new director of Unicredit, in the meeting with the trade unions he underlined that one of the institute's first missions is to recover positions with respect to Intesa.
Time also accounts for Stellantis +1,3% hit, like the other big names in the sector, by the chip supply crisis. From today for the week agreement it will be closed due to lack of components the Melfi plant. But the real emergency concerns the USA: the group led by Mike Manley foresees the launch of new jeeps for the beginning of summer, starting with the Wagoneer and the Grand SUV Wagoneer, the flagship product of the house to intercept the consumption of the audience of enriched consumers by the support paid by Washington. But the big party threatens to be spoiled by the shortage of chips which could delay deliveries. In Europe, however, the group, first in sales in March, has the right numbers to intercept the recovery in demand. First test tonight with April results in Italy.
Finally Is in the, the heavyweight which alone represents more than 15% of Piazza Affari. The colossus arrives at the test of accounts after having sold, with an excellent capital gain, 10% of Open Fiber to CDP at a price of 530 million, consideration determined on the basis of the 2,65 billion offered by Macquarie for 50% of the optical fiber operator and including the shareholder loan granted to Open Fiber. The increase in interest rates is on paper destined to weigh on the most important European utility. But the growth prospects of the green economy play in favor of Francesco Starace's company, one of the leaders in renewable energy, which has just been admitted to the Standard & Poor's clean energy index.
